[1] Maddox R A.Mesoscale convective complexes [J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1980,61(11):1374-1387. [2] 丁一汇,李鸿洲,章名立,等.我国飑线发生条件的研究[J].大气科学,1982,6(1):18-27. [3] Rotunno R,Klemp J B,Weisman M L.A Theory for Strong,Long-Lived Squall Lines [J].Journal of the Atmospheric Science,1988,45(3):463-485. [4] Weisman M L,Klemp J B,Rotunno R.Structure and evolution of numerically simulated squall lines [J].Journal of the Atmospheric Science,1988,45(14):1990-2013. [5] Weisman M L.The genesis of severe,long-lived bow echoes [J].Journal of the Atmospheric Science,1993,50(4):645-645. [6] 陈明轩,王迎春.低层垂直风切变和冷池相互作用影响华北地区一次飑线过程发展维持的数值模拟[J].气象学报,2012,70(3):371-386. [7] 刘香娥,郭学良.灾害性大风发生机理与飑线结构特征的个例分析模拟研究[J].大气科学,2012,36(6):1150-1164. [8] 缪子青,何宏让,白仕刚,等.2014 年 3 月广东一次飑线过程观测及数值模拟分析[J].气象与减灾研究,2014,37(4):7-17. [9] 缪子青,何宏让,张云,等.一次飑线过程雷达回波特征及环境条件分析[J].气象科学,2016,36(1):71-79. [10] 高士博,闵锦忠,黄丹莲.EnSRF 雷达资料同化在一次飑线过程中的应用研究[J].大气科学,2016,40(6):1127-1142. [11] 张涵斌,智协飞,陈静,等.区域集合预报扰动方法研究进展综述[J].大气科学学报,2017,40(2):145-157. [12] 陈宇,王小桃,王瀛,等.基于中尺度集合预报的“8.16”抚顺地区特大暴雨过程分析[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(6):01-08. [13] 王太微,陈德辉,吴曼丽.GRAPES-EPS系统的初值生成方法与对比试验研究[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(2):23-30. [14] 王太微,王勇,陈德辉,等.基于聚类分析法区域集合预报模式的初边值试验研究[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(6):18-26. [15] 王孝慈,李双君,闵锦忠.SLAF方法的改进及其对广东地区一次飑线过程集合预报研究[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(5):31-38. [16] 高峰,闵锦忠,孔凡铀.基于增长模繁殖法的风暴尺度集合预报试验[J].高原气象,2010,29(2):429-436. [17] 庄潇然,闵锦忠,王世璋,等.风暴尺度集合预报中的混合初始扰动方法及其北京2012年“7.21”暴雨预报中的应用[J].大气科学,2017,41(1):30-42. [18] 蔡沅辰,闵锦忠,庄潇然.不同随机物理扰动方案在一次暴雨集合预报中的对比研究[J].高原气象,2017,36(2):407-423. [19] Schwartz C S,Romine G S,Smith K R,et al.Characterizing and optimizing precipitation forecasts from a convection-permitting ensemble initialized by a mesoscale ensemble kalman filter [J].Weather and Forecasting,2014,29(6):1295-1318. [20] Schwartz C S,Romine G S,Sobash R A,et al.NCAR's experimental real-time convection-allowing ensemble prediction system [J].Weather and Forecasting,2015,30(5):1645-1654. [21] Clark A J,Gallus W,Xue M,et al.A comparison of precipitation forecast skill between small convection-allowing and large convection-parameterizing ensembles [J].Weather and Forecasting,2009,24(4):1121-1140. [22] Kong F,Droegemeier K K,Hickmon N L.Multiresolution ensemble forecasts of an observed tornadic thunderstorm system.Part I:Comparsion of coarse-and fine-grid experiments [J].Monthly Weather Review,2006,134(3):807-833. [23] Berenguer M,Surcel M,Zawadzki I,et al.The diurnal cycle of precipitation from continental radar mosaics and numerical weather prediction models.Part Ⅱ:Intercomparison among Numerical Models and with Nowcasting [J].Monthly Weather Review,2012,140(8):2689-2705. [24] 徐姝,尉英华,熊明明,等.频率匹配法在海河流域ECMWF集合预报融合产品中的应用研究[J].气象与环境学报,2018,34(4):11-17. [25] 李娜,冉令坤,高守亭.华东地区一次飑线过程的数值模拟与诊断分析[J].大气科学,2013,37(3):595-608. [26] Ebert E E.Ability of a poor man's ensemble to predict the probability and distribution of precipitation [J].Monthly Weather Review,2001,129(10):2461-2480. |