辽宁省秋季降水对前期海洋和大气信号的遥响应

doi:10.11927/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.02.005

Journal of Meteorology and Environment ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (2): 37-43.doi: 10.11927/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.02.005

Remote response of autumn precipitation to previous oceanic and atmospheric signals in Liaoning province

FANG Yi-he^1,2, GONG Qiang¹, ZHAO Lian-wei¹, WANG Xiao-tao¹, ZHOU Xiao-yu¹, CUI Yan¹, REN Chuan³, WANG Dang⁴, WEN Ri-hong⁵

1. Shenyang Regional Climate Center, Shenyang 110166, China;
2. College of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
3. Meteorological Information Center of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110166, China;
4. Liaoning Branch of Training School of Meteorological Cadres in China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110016, China;
5. Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110166, China

Received:2014-11-14 Revised:2015-12-16 Online:2016-04-30 Published:2016-04-30

Abstract

Abstract: In order to find previous oceanic and atmospheric signals which can significantly influence autumn precipitation in Liaoning province and provide theoretical basis to support autumn climatic forecast, the abnormal characteristics of autumn precipitation were analyzed based on the monthly mean precipitation data from 53 weather observational stations during 1961 to 2012, the NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis data of geopotential height field and sea level pressure field, and monthly mean sea surface temperature data reconstructed by the NOAA.Meanwhile, previous oceanic and atmospheric signals of autumn precipitation were sought in Liaoning province by a correlation analysis method, and then a prediction equation was established by a multiple linear regression method.The results indicate that the first mode's spatial vector of EOF analysis for the autumn precipitation anomalies percentage shows a consistent abnormal variation characteristic over the whole Liaoning province, and the autumn precipitation anomalies percentage is in a decreasing trend year by year.The North Atlantic SST tripole in previous May, July and August, the Tropical India Ocean Dipole (IOD) in May and the North Pacific Oscillation in May can influence the first mode of the autumn precipitation in Liaoning province, and they can be used as forecast factors of autumn precipitation.Their positive phases correspond to abundant autumn rain in Liaoning province, and vice versa.

Key words: Autumn precipitation, North Atlantic SST tripole, Tropical India Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Pacific Oscillation(NPO)

CLC Number:

P732.6

FANG Yi-he, GONG Qiang, ZHAO Lian-wei, WANG Xiao-tao, ZHOU Xiao-yu, CUI Yan, REN Chuan, WANG Dang, WEN Ri-hong. Remote response of autumn precipitation to previous oceanic and atmospheric signals in Liaoning province[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2016, 32(2): 37-43.

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Remote response of autumn precipitation to previous oceanic and atmospheric signals in Liaoning province

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