河南省冬小麦籽粒质量评价的气象指标分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.02.009

Abstract

Abstract:

Utilizing a dataset comprised of 630 winter wheat samples collected from He′nan province during the years 2008, 2010 to 2014, and 2019, along with corresponding meteorological data, this study employs multiple comparison methods and logistic multivariate regression analysis to construct meteorological indicators predicting the attainment of grade two or higher grain quality in winter wheat. The results indicate a significant negative correlation between the thousand kernel weight (TKW) of winter wheat grains and average air relative humidity during the anthesis period, and a significant positive correlation with sunlight duration. The proportion of shriveled grains shows a significant positive correlation with air relative humidity, precipitation amount, and the number of precipitation days. The correlation between winter wheat grain quality and decadal meteorological factors displays dynamic variations. Key meteorological factors affecting the TKW of winter wheat grains differ by region within He′nan province, with sunlight and temperature being critical in the northern part, temperature in the eastern part, and temperature combined with precipitation in the southern part. The evaluation of meteorological indicators for winter wheat grain quality matched well with the actual grain quality grades, yielding a consistency rate of 84%, while the consistency rate for the evaluation of shriveled grains reached 100%. Over the past 30 years, the average frequency of attaining at least grade two in terms of meteorological conditions for winter wheat quality in He′nan province has been 79.7% (with the exception of western He′nan), suggesting that meteorological conditions are overall favorable for the improvement of grain quality of winter wheat in He′nan province.

Key words: Thousand kernel weight (TKW), Shrivel grain, Diurnal temperature range, Meteorological factors

CLC Number:

S161/S512.1⁺1

Lin CHENG,Yaojie HAN,Chengda HU. Analysis of meteorological indicators for grain quality evaluation of winter wheat in He'nan province[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2024, 40(2): 69-76.

Figures/Tables 11

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References 37

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等级	容重/(g·L^-1)	不完善粒/(%)	水分/(%)
1	≥790	≤6.0	≤12.5
2	≥770
3	≥750	≤8.0
4	≥730
5	≥710	≤10.0
等外	＜710	—

地区	容重/(g·L^-1)			不完善粒/(%)			水份/(%)
地区	均值	县域间偏差	年际间偏差	均值	县域间偏差	年际间偏差	均值	县域间偏差	年际间偏差
豫北	793.4	17.12	13.50	3.27	1.98	1.48	11.62	0.44	0.67
豫南	778.7	13.34	9.88	10.78	3.47	6.85	12.58	0.45	0.45
豫东	783.1	17.68	12.52	3.23	2.03	1.56	11.72	0.33	0.66

因变量	地区(I)	地区(J)	均值差(I-J)	显著性
籽粒容重	豫北	豫南	14.82	0.001
	豫北	豫东	11.07	0.012
	豫南	豫北	-14.82	0.001
	豫南	豫东	-8.49	0.049
	豫东	豫北	-11.07	0.012
	豫东	豫南	8.49	0.381
不完善粒	豫北	豫南	-7.52	0.004
	豫北	豫东	0.04	0.987
	豫南	豫北	7.52	0.004
	豫南	豫东	7.56	0.004
	豫东	豫北	-0.04	0.987
	豫东	豫南	-7.56	0.004
籽粒水分	豫北	豫南	-0.97	0.000
	豫北	豫东	-0.11	0.651
	豫南	豫北	0.97	0.000
	豫南	豫东	0.86	0.001
	豫东	豫北	0.11	0.651
	豫东	豫南	-0.86	0.001

籽粒质量	T	T_max	T_min	U	S	R	T_d	D
籽粒容重	-0.0406	-0.0969	0.0088	-0.5341^**	0.4356^**	-0.1058	0.0695	-0.2021
不完善粒	-0.3035^*	-0.3238^*	-0.2923^*	0.3284^*	-0.2599	0.6395^**	-0.0828	0.5263^**
籽粒水分	-0.3934^**	-0.2520	-0.3873^**	0.1926	-0.1538	0.1915	0.3313^*	0.3244^*

性状指标	地区	关键气象指标	偏相关系数	线性回归模型	R²
籽粒容重	豫北	T_max(51)	-0.6153^*	$ G=-2.70 \times T_{\max (51)}+8.82 \times S_{(51)}+803.47 $	0.8979 ^**
	豫北	S₍₅₁₎	0.8881^**		0.8979 ^**
	豫东	T₍₄₃₎	-0.6820^**	$G=-3.75 \times T_{(43)}-3.86 \times T_{\min (52)}+905.22 $	0.9342 ^**
	豫东	T_min(52)	-0.7621^**	$G=-3.75 \times T_{(43)}-3.86 \times T_{\min (52)}+905.22 $	0.9342 ^**
	豫南	R₍₅₁₎	0.5058^*	$G=0.10 \times R_{(51)}+5.44 \times T_{d(53)}+718.92 $	0.7964 ^**
	豫南	T_d(53)	0.8431^**	$G=0.10 \times R_{(51)}+5.44 \times T_{d(53)}+718.92 $	0.7964 ^**
不完善粒	豫北、豫东	T_max(52)	-0.5567^**	$B=-0.47 \times T_{\max (52)}+16.10 $	0.5567^**
	豫南	R₍₅₂₎	0.7040^**	$ B=0.52 \times R_{(52)}+2.95 \times D_{(53)}-5.19$	0.8487^**
	豫南	D₍₅₃₎	0.5762^**	$ B=0.52 \times R_{(52)}+2.95 \times D_{(53)}-5.19$	0.8487^**

Analysis of meteorological indicators for grain quality evaluation of winter wheat in He'nan province

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地区	指标	参数	χ²	sig	伪R²
	T_max(51)	-1.305
豫北	S₍₅₁₎	2.941	9.932	0.007	0.6732
	常数项	19.573
	T₍₄₃₎	-4.011
豫东	T_min(52)	1.817	18.236	0.001	0.8574
	常数项	44.725
	R₍₅₁₎	-0.140
豫南	T_d(53)	2.905	15.012	0.042	0.6933
	常数项	-25.995

地区	关键气象指标关系
豫北	T_max(51)≤(2.25×S₍₅₁₎+13.32)
豫东	T_min(52)≥(2.21×T₍₄₃₎－23.40)
豫南	T_d(53)≥(0.05×R₍₅₁₎+9.70)

地区	容重气象指标	不完善粒气象指标
豫北	S₍₅₁₎≥4.3, T_max(51) ≤23.0 S₍₅₁₎ ≥5.0, T_max(51) ≤24.6 S₍₅₁₎ ≥5.5, T_max(51) ≤25.7 S₍₅₁₎ ≥6.0, T_max(51) ≤26.8 S₍₅₁₎≥6.5, T_max(51) ≤27.9 S₍₅₁₎ ≥7.0, T_max(51) ≤29.1	21.5≤T_max(52) ≤32.0
豫东	13.0≤T₍₄₃₎≤18.5, 17.5≤T_min(52)≤18.5 13.0 ≤T₍₄₃₎≤18.0, 16.4≤T_min(52)≤18.5 13.0≤T₍₄₃₎≤17.5, 15.3≤T_min(52)≤18.5 13.0 ≤T₍₄₃₎≤17.0, 14.2≤T_min(52)≤18.5	21.5≤T_max(52) ≤32.0
豫南	R₍₅₁₎ ≤25, T_d(53)≥10.9 R₍₅₁₎ ≤50, T_d(53)≥12.2 R₍₅₁₎ ≤60, T_d(53)≥12.7 R₍₅₁₎ ≤80, T_d(53)≥13.7	R₍₅₂₎ < 25，D₍₅₃₎＜4

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