沈阳地区强对流天气潜势预报环境参数特征分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.06.006

气象与环境学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 43-51.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.06.006

沈阳地区强对流天气潜势预报环境参数特征分析

李崇, 吉曹翔, 夏传栋, 张治, 李典, 孟鹏, 班伟龙, 梁红

沈阳市气象局, 辽宁沈阳 110168

收稿日期:2015-10-20 修回日期:2016-01-13 出版日期:2016-12-31 发布日期:2016-12-31
通讯作者: 梁红,E-mail:syzmj@sina.com。 E-mail:syzmj@sina.com
作者简介:李崇,女,1985年生,工程师,主要从事短期天气预报研究,E-mail:653318494@qq.com。
基金资助:
中国气象局预报员专项“冷涡背景下沈阳对流性降水的预报预警指标总结分析”（CMAYBY2015-016）资助。

Analysis on environmental parameters in potential forecast of severe convective weather in Shenyang

LI Chong, JI Cao-xiang, XIA Chuan-dong, ZHANG Zhi, LI Dian, MENG Peng, BAN Wei-long, LIANG Hong

Shenyang Meteorological Service, Shenyang 110168, China

Received:2015-10-20 Revised:2016-01-13 Online:2016-12-31 Published:2016-12-31

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用常规探空观测和WRF分析场等资料，分析了2005-2014年沈阳地区强对流天气的气候背景特征、演变规律及日变化特征等，将强对流天气划分为冰雹、雷暴大风(≥17.2 m·s^-1)、短时强降水(≥20 mm·h^-1)和混合型4种类型；并分析探空资料在强对流天气潜势预报中的作用，着重探讨14时(02时)探空资料对沈阳地区强对流天气短时临近潜势预报的作用。结果表明：2005-2014年沈阳地区4种强对流天气中，以短时强降水天气发生次数最多，其次为雷暴大风天气，冰雹天气的发生次数最少，多数强对流天气发生在午后至傍晚。由合成T-LogP图的温湿廓线可知，沈阳地区短时强降水天气发生时中低层存在显著湿区，与雷暴大风和冰雹为主的强对流天气温湿廓线明显不同，多数合成T-LogP图的显著特点为中层大气干燥。冰雹型强对流天气的0℃层和-20℃层高度明显低于其他强对流天气类型的高度；冰雹型强对流天气T₇₀₀-T₅₀₀和T₈₅₀-T₅₀₀显著大于短时强降水型及雷暴大风型强对流天气，且T₈₅₀-T₅₀₀的指示意义更好；4种强对流天气类型平均SI均出现了正值，说明SI失去了不稳定性的指示意义；短时强降水天气的K指数明显高于冰雹天气；雷暴大风天气发生时对流有效位能明显小于其他强对流天气类型。可见，WRF中尺度模式中的T-LogP预报图对沈阳地区强对流天气的预报具有一定的指导意义。

关键词: 强对流天气, 临近潜势预报, 环境参数, T-LogP图, WRF中尺度模式

Abstract: Based on conventional radiosonde observations and analysis data of Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model,the climatic background characteristics,evolutional feature and diurnal variation of severe convective weather in Shenyang from 2005 to 2014 were investigated.Severe convective weather was classified into four types,including hailstorm,thunderstorm and strong wind (≥17.2 m·s^-1),short-time strong rainfall (≥20 mm·h^-1),and the mixture of all.The function of the radiosonde data in the potential forecast of severe convective weather was analyzed,particularly that at 14:00 (02:00) in the short-term potential forecast of severe convective weather in Shenyang.The results show that the short-time strong rainfall among severe convective weather types occur mostly in Shenyang from 2005 to 2014,followed by thunderstorm and strong wind,and hail ranks the last.Severe convective weather mostly occurs in the afternoon towards the evening.Analysis of profiles of air temperature and humidity in T-LogP diagrams indicates that the short-time strong rainfall events usually accompany with significant moisture area in the middle and lower atmosphere,which are very different from those of thunderstorm,strong wind and the hailstorm.The latter three types show a dry layer in the middle atmosphere from the most of T-LogP diagrams.The heights of layers of 0℃ and -20℃ for hail are obviously lower than those of the other convective weather types.Temperature difference between 700 hPa and 500 hPa (T₇₀₀-T₅₀₀) and that between 850 hPa and 500 hPa (T₈₅₀-T₅₀₀) of hail weather are significantly larger than those of short-time strong rainfall,thunderstorm and strong wind,and the value of T₈₅₀-T₅₀₀ has better referential meaning.The mean value of Showalter index (SI) for the four types of severe convective weather is positive,which means that SI has no meanings.The K-index value of short-time strong rainfall weather is significantly greater than that of hail weather,and the convective available potential energy (CAPE) of thunderstorm and strong wind is significantly smaller than that of the other types.The predicted T-LogP diagram from the WRF model has a certain reference for the forecast of severe convective weather in Shenyang.

Key words: Severe convective weather, Short-term potential forecast, Environmental parameter, T-LogP diagram, Meso-scale Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model

中图分类号:

P457.6

李崇, 吉曹翔, 夏传栋, 张治, 李典, 孟鹏, 班伟龙, 梁红. 沈阳地区强对流天气潜势预报环境参数特征分析[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2016, 32(6): 43-51.

LI Chong, JI Cao-xiang, XIA Chuan-dong, ZHANG Zhi, LI Dian, MENG Peng, BAN Wei-long, LIANG Hong. Analysis on environmental parameters in potential forecast of severe convective weather in Shenyang[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2016, 32(6): 43-51.

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沈阳地区强对流天气潜势预报环境参数特征分析

Analysis on environmental parameters in potential forecast of severe convective weather in Shenyang

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