关键词: 林火, 气象因子, 节气, 天气学方法, 灰色关联分析

Abstract: Based on the bush fire damage observations during 2002-2015,the hot point data from satellite observations from 2014 to 2016 and related upper weather chart,the characteristics of the bush fire and burned area and their relationships with solar terms were investigated using the statistical analyses,synoptic-meteorological techniques and grey correlation analysis method.At the same time,the meteorological factors affecting the occurrence phases of fire damage were quantitatively analyzed.The results indicate that March,April and May in spring are the dominant months during which the bush fire occurs frequently.Most bush fires occur during 10-15 o'clock(Beijing Time) (2-7 GMT) in these months.The Spring Equinox (4th solar term) is highly correlated to the date when the hot-point on satellite images occurs and therefore is regarded as the beginning time of the fire warning in Liaoning province.In addition,the first 10 day in April (Chinese bright and clear day,5th solar term) becomes the key period for fire protections in every year.The monthly mean air temperature and wind speed in April,the monthly mean air temperature and relative humidity in May and the monthly mean wind speed in March are the main factors causing the occurrences of fire damages.Base on the relationships between the meteorological factors and the occurrences of fire damage from the on-the-spot investigation data,the warning time of high-incidence of bush fire and the related warning meteorological indices are proposed to provide scientific basis to forest fire weather service.

Key words: Forest fire, Meteorological factor, Solar term, Synoptic-meteorological technique, Grey correlation analysis