主办单位:中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号:ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号:CN 21-1531/P

气象与环境学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 72-78.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2019.01.010

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

CCSM4模式对东北气温和降水的模拟及预估

张海娜, 侯依玲, 赵春雨, 刘鸣彦, 王涛, 周晓宇, 崔妍, 敖雪, 易雪   

  1. 沈阳区域气候中心, 辽宁 沈阳 110166
  • 收稿日期:2017-11-02 修回日期:2018-03-29 出版日期:2019-02-28 发布日期:2019-02-28
  • 通讯作者: 侯依玲,女,高级工程师,E-mail:houyiling2001@163.com。
  • 作者简介:张海娜,女,1960年生,高级工程师,主要从事气候资料分析工作。E-mail:418454761@qq.com。
  • 基金资助:

    中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201609、CCSF201526)和中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所开放基金(2016SYIAE08)共同资助。

Simulation and projection of temperature and precipitation by CCSM4 model in Northeast China

ZHANG Hai-na, HOU Yi-ling, ZHAO Chun-yu, LIU Ming-yan, WANG Tao, ZHOU Xiao-yu, CUI Yan, AO Xue, YI Xue   

  1. Shenyang Regional Climate Center, Shenyang, 110166, China
  • Received:2017-11-02 Revised:2018-03-29 Online:2019-02-28 Published:2019-02-28

摘要:

利用东北地区162个气象观测站逐月气温和降水资料对CCSM4模式的模拟性能进行了评价,并预估了2021-2050年东北地区的气候变化情景。结果表明:CCSM4模式长期历史气候模拟实验模拟的1961-2005年月平均气温、降水量值能较好地再现东北区域年平均气温、降水量的空间分布形态,但气温模拟值比观测偏低,91.4%站点误差在1.5℃以内;降水中心比观测略偏北,全区平均偏多35.18 mm。2021-2050年东北区域年平均气温呈增温趋势,高纬度地区的增温幅度明显大于低纬度地区,与基准年相比,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下全区分别偏高6.00℃、5.86℃和6.42℃。年降水量分布呈东南向西北递减的形态,降水大值中心出现在东南部吉林与辽宁交界处,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下全区分别偏多15.2%、3.1%和2.0%。

关键词: CCSM4, 气温, 降水, 评估, 预估

Abstract:

The monthly temperature and precipitation data from 162 meteorological observation stations were used to evaluate the simulation performance of the CCSM4 model and predict the climate change scenario in Northeast China from 2021 to 2050.Results show that monthly mean temperature and precipitation values simulated by the long-term historical climate CCSM4 mode simulation experiment from 1961 to 2005 can reproduce the Northeast regional annual average temperature,rainfall spatial distribution form.However,the temperature simulation values are lower than those of observations.The temperature error in 91.4% stations is within 1.5 ℃.The precipitation center is slightly shifted to the north compared with the observations.There is a positive bias of 35.18 mm of average precipitation for the whole region.For 2021-2050,the annual average temperature in Northeast China increases.The amplitude of increased temperature in the high latitude is larger than that in the low latitudes.Compared with the benchmark year,the temperature increasing amplitudes under RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are 6.00 ℃,5.86 ℃ and 6.42 ℃,respectively.The annual precipitation distribution presents a pattern of decreasing from southeast to northwest.The high-value center in precipitation appears at the southeast part of the junction zone of Jilin and Liaoning provinces.Under RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,the increasing percentage in precipitation is 15.2%,3.1%,and 2.0%,respectively for the whole research area.

Key words: CCSM4, Temperature, Precipitation, Evaluation, Projection

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