河北省棉花连阴雨灾害定量化评估指标与风险分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2019.05.014

气象与环境学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5): 108-114.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2019.05.014

河北省棉花连阴雨灾害定量化评估指标与风险分析

代立芹¹, 王猛², 李春强¹, 姚树然¹

1. 河北省气象科学研究所/河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室, 河北石家庄 050021;
2. 唐山市气象局, 河北唐山 063000

收稿日期:2018-03-24 修回日期:2018-06-08 出版日期:2019-10-30 发布日期:2019-10-08
作者简介:代立芹,女,1980生,高级工程师,主要从事农业气象情报预报和农业气象灾害研究,E-mail:xiaodai1999@163.com。
基金资助:
河北省气象局科研项目（15ky16）和科技部“十二五”农村领域国家科技计划课题（2012BAD20B04）共同资助。

Quantitative evaluation index and risk analysis of continuous rainfall disaster during the growing stage of cotton in Hebei province

DAI Li-qin¹, WANG Meng², LI Chun-qiang¹, YAO Shu-ran¹

1. Hebei Meteorological Science Institute/Hebei Key Lab for Meteorology and Eco-Environment, Shijiazhuang 050021, China;
2. Tangshan Meteorological Service, Tangshan 063000, China

Received:2018-03-24 Revised:2018-06-08 Online:2019-10-30 Published:2019-10-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用河北省棉区1981—2015年40个气象站逐日气象资料、农业气象观测站棉花农情、连阴雨灾情、棉花产量资料，分析连阴雨过程特征及其对棉花生长的影响，修订和完善连阴雨灾害指标；采用数理统计方法获取历史连阴雨产量灾损率、筛选关键致灾因子，采用权重系数法构建连阴雨强度指数，并建立基于强度指数的灾损评估模型；利用有序样本聚类分析法划分连阴雨强度等级；依据风险分析原理，构建连阴雨风险指数并进行风险区划。结果表明：建立的强度指数能够客观反映连阴雨灾害强度，灾损评估模型评估效果较好。棉花播种出苗期连阴雨发生概率低（0.076）、造成的损失小（平均产量灾损率0.09%）；现蕾至吐絮期连阴雨影响较大，发生概率和造成的灾损率由大到小依次为花铃期（0.447，17.1%） > 现蕾期（0.394，11.7%） > 吐絮期（0.237，7.2%）。近年来，现蕾期连阴雨发生站次减少，对棉花影响减弱，花铃期和吐絮期发生站次增加，尤其是吐絮期增加明显，成为连阴雨灾害影响棉花生长的主要时期。现蕾期和花铃期连阴雨高风险区主要分布在非主棉区，其中现蕾期高风险区分布在保定北部及以北棉区，花铃期高风险区分布在保定北部及以北棉区和石家庄、邢台、邯郸三市西部棉区；吐絮期高风险区分布在保定西南部、衡水西部、石家庄及其以南棉区，部分地区为主棉区。

关键词: 棉花, 连阴雨, 定量化评估, 风险分析

Abstract: Based on the daily meteorological data of 40 weather stations and the observed cotton yield data of agro-meteorological station in cotton planting regions of Hebei province from 1981 to 2015,the characteristics and the impacts of continuous rainfall (CR) process on the cotton yield were analyzed,and the index of CR disaster was revised and optimized.Then,through the mathematical statistics,the yield loss rate caused by CR was calculated and the key disaster-causing factors of CR were filtered.Furthermore,using the weight coefficient of factors,the intensity indices of CR during the cotton growth stage were designed.Moreover,based on the relationship between the intensity index and yield loss rate,the evaluation model of yield loss was established.According to the analytical method of the ordered sample cluster,the disaster grade was ranked.Finally,based on risk analysis principle of disaster,the indices and characteristics of risk were established and analyzed.The results show that the intensity index of CR can objectively reflect the intensity of CR and the effect of yield loss evaluation model is satisfactory.The occurrence probability and the yield loss caused by CR during the seeding stage are both small and are 0.076 and 0.09%,respectively.The growth of cotton is mainly affected by the CR during squaring to boll opening stage and the orders of probability and the yield loss caused by CR changing from large to small are flower-boll stage (0.447,17.1%),squaring stage (0.394,11.7%) and boll opening stage (0.237,7.2%).In recent years,the amount of CR decreases during the squaring stage,and increase during the flower-boll and the boll opening stages,especially during the boll opening stage which is the most major stage when the cotton growth is affected by CR.The high-risk area of CR during the squaring stage distributes in the north of Baoding and its northward areas,while that during the flower-boll stage distributes in the north of Baoding and its northward areas as well as the west of three cities including Shijiazhuang,Xingtai and Handan.The above-mentioned areas are non-major cotton planting area.The high-risk area of CR during the boll opening stage distributes in the southwest of Baoding,the west of Hengshui,Shijiazhuang and its southward areas.

Key words: Cotton, Continuous rainfall, Quantitative evaluation, Risk analysis

中图分类号:

S562

代立芹, 王猛, 李春强, 姚树然. 河北省棉花连阴雨灾害定量化评估指标与风险分析[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2019, 35(5): 108-114.

DAI Li-qin, WANG Meng, LI Chun-qiang, YAO Shu-ran. Quantitative evaluation index and risk analysis of continuous rainfall disaster during the growing stage of cotton in Hebei province[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(5): 108-114.

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河北省棉花连阴雨灾害定量化评估指标与风险分析

Quantitative evaluation index and risk analysis of continuous rainfall disaster during the growing stage of cotton in Hebei province

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