基于WRF模式分析高垂直分辨率对环渤海辐射雾模拟的适用性研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2023.05.005

气象与环境学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (5): 34-43.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2023.05.005

基于WRF模式分析高垂直分辨率对环渤海辐射雾模拟的适用性研究

廖云琛^1,^2,³(),吴彬贵^2,^3,*(),鞠婷婷⁴,田梦^2,³,李英华^2,³,孙树鹏¹,张嘉霖¹,杨健博^2,³

1. 天津市津南区气象局，天津 300350
2. 天津市海洋气象重点实验室，天津 300074
3. 天津市气象科学研究所，天津 300074
4. 大连海事大学, 辽宁大连 116026

收稿日期:2022-03-25 出版日期:2023-10-28 发布日期:2023-11-28
通讯作者: 吴彬贵 E-mail:liaoyunchen0502@163.com;tjwbgtjwbg@126.com
作者简介:廖云琛，男，1990年生，工程师，主要从事大雾模拟方面研究，E-mail: liaoyunchen0502@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(42105084);国家自然科学基金(41675018);大连海事大学青年科学基金(02500117);环渤海区域科技协同创新基金(QYXM202112);环渤海区域科技协同创新基金(QYXM202202);天津市应用基础研究项目(22JCQNJC00370);天津市气象局科研项目(202226dgxm05)

Research on the applicability of high vertical resolution on radiation fog simulation around the Bohai Sea based on the WRF model

Yunchen LIAO^1,^2,³(),Bingui WU^2,^3,*(),Tingting JU⁴,Meng TIAN^2,³,Yinghua LI^2,³,Shupeng SUN¹,Jialin ZHANG¹,Jianbo YANG^2,³

1. Meteorological Service at Jinnan District of Tianjin, Tianjin 300350, China
2. Tianjin Key Laboratory of Oceanic Meteorology, Tianjin 300074, China
3. Tianjin Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Tianjin 300074, China
4. Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China

Received:2022-03-25 Online:2023-10-28 Published:2023-11-28
Contact: Bingui WU E-mail:liaoyunchen0502@163.com;tjwbgtjwbg@126.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

研究普遍认为高垂直分辨率数值天气预报模式能改善雾形成阶段的预报能力，而对雾发展与消散阶段的模拟能力是否改善存在较多争论。为探讨高垂直分辨率模式对环渤海地区辐射雾模拟的适用性，利用卫星资料和观测资料，采用击中率(POD)、虚报率(FAR)和预报技巧(ETS)3个检验指标，评估了不同垂直分辨率模式对环渤海大雾过程各阶段的模拟效果。结果表明：模式上层设置较高的垂直分辨率对雾模拟影响极小，而低层设置较高的垂直分辨率总体上能改善雾形成时间、持续时长和雾层厚度的模拟能力，但雾区的模拟高度依赖于大雾分布形态。对零散非均一分布大雾过程，高垂直分辨率模式看似改善了POD，但却伴随着FAR的上升和ETS的下降；对均一分布的大范围雾过程，高垂直分辨率模式能同时改善各检验指标，有效改善此类雾预报。

关键词: 环渤海, 辐射雾, 高垂直分辨率, WRF

Abstract:

It is generally believed that a high vertical resolution numerical weather prediction model can improve the prediction ability of the fog formation stage, but there is much debate on whether the simulation ability of the fog development and disappearance stage can be improved.To explore the applicability of a high vertical resolution model for radiation fog simulation in the Bohai Sea Rim, three test indexes including probality of detection (POD), false alarm rate (FAR), and equitable threat score (ETS) were used to evaluate the simulation effect of different vertical resolution models for different stages of radiation fog process in the Bohai Sea Rim.The results show that setting a higher vertical resolution in the upper layer of the model has little effect on fog simulation, while setting a higher vertical resolution in the lower layer can generally improve the simulation ability of fog formation time, fog duration, and fog layer thickness, but the simulation of fog region highly depends on the fog distribution pattern.For the scattered and non-uniform fog process, the high vertical resolution model seems to improve the POD, but it is accompanied by the increase of FAR and the decrease of ETS.For the uniformly distributed fog process, the high vertical resolution model can improve all the test indexes simultaneously, and effectively improve the prediction of such type of fog process.

Key words: The Bohai Sea Rim, Radiation fog, High vertical resolution, WRF (weather research and forecast)

中图分类号:

P426.4⁺1

廖云琛,吴彬贵,鞠婷婷,田梦,李英华,孙树鹏,张嘉霖,杨健博. 基于WRF模式分析高垂直分辨率对环渤海辐射雾模拟的适用性研究[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2023, 39(5): 34-43.

Yunchen LIAO,Bingui WU,Tingting JU,Meng TIAN,Yinghua LI,Shupeng SUN,Jialin ZHANG,Jianbo YANG. Research on the applicability of high vertical resolution on radiation fog simulation around the Bohai Sea based on the WRF model[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(5): 34-43.

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个例	模拟初始时间	雾第1时段	雾第2时段
个例1	2016年12月18日08时	2016年12月18日20时至19日08时	2016年12月19日20时至20日08时
个例2	2019年1月11日08时	2019年1月11日20时至12日10时	2019年1月12日20时至13日08时
个例3	2019年2月18日20时	2019年2月18日21时至19日10时	2019年2月19日22时至20日08时

试验组	HR			LR
试验组	POD	FAR	ETS	POD	FAR	ETS
第1阶段	0.190	0.756	-0.006	0.106	0.724	0.006
第2阶段	0.596	0.394	0.138	0.173	0.557	0.106

统计评分时段		HR	MR	LR
	第1阶段	0.274(0.109)	0.254(0.089)	0.165
POD	第2阶段	0.647(0.507)	0.508(0.368)	0.140
	全时段	0.342(0.226)	0.284(0.168)	0.116
	第1阶段	0.675(0.115)	0.675(0.115)	0.560
FAR	第2阶段	0.319(-0.221)	0.361(-0.179)	0.540
	全时段	0.482(-0.065)	0.521(-0.026)	0.547
	第1阶段	-0.012(-0.041)	-0.016(-0.045)	0.029
ETS	第2阶段	0.163(0.166)	0.100(0.103)	-0.003
	全时段	0.051(0.042)	0.028(0.019)	0.009

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基于WRF模式分析高垂直分辨率对环渤海辐射雾模拟的适用性研究

Research on the applicability of high vertical resolution on radiation fog simulation around the Bohai Sea based on the WRF model

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