主办单位:中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号:ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号:CN 21-1531/P

气象与环境学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 20-29.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2025.02.003

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

1993—2022年沈阳市太阳辐射变化特征及其与气象因素的关系分析

朱玲1, 顾正强1, 龚强2, 李杨3, 王乙舒1, 崔妍1, 徐红1, 晁华1   

  1. 1. 辽宁省气候中心, 辽宁沈阳 110166;
    2. 辽宁省生态气象和卫星遥感中心, 辽宁沈阳 110166;
    3. 辽宁开放大学, 辽宁沈阳 110034
  • 收稿日期:2024-01-04 修回日期:2024-05-29 出版日期:2025-04-28 发布日期:2025-06-20
  • 通讯作者: 龚强,女,正高级工程师,E-mail:isgq@sina.com。 E-mail:isgq@sina.com
  • 作者简介:朱玲,女,1985年生,高级工程师,主要从事气候资源开发利用和气候变化研究,E-mail:zhuling.0@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFB1501100)和辽宁省气象局核心攻关项目(LNCP202203、HXGGQ202402)共同资助。

Characteristics of solar radiation changes in Shenyang from 1993 to 2022 and analysis of their relationship with meteorological factors

ZHU Ling1, GU Zhengqiang1, GONG Qiang2, LI Yang3, WANG Yishu1, CUI Yan1, XU Hong1, CHAO Hua1   

  1. 1. Liaoning Climate Center, Shenyang 110166, China;
    2. Ecological Meteorology and Satellite Remote Sensing Center of Liaoning, Shenyang 110166, China;
    3. Liaoning Open University, Shenyang 110034, China
  • Received:2024-01-04 Revised:2024-05-29 Online:2025-04-28 Published:2025-06-20

摘要: 选用1993—2022年沈阳国家基本气象站太阳辐射和常规气象观测数据,分析该地区太阳辐射变化及其与气象因素的关系。结果表明:沈阳市太阳辐射年总辐射量和直接辐射量均呈波动增加趋势,气候倾向率分别为237 MJ·m-2·(10 a)-1、349 MJ·m-2·(10 a)-1;散射辐射量与总辐射量、直接辐射量均呈负相关关系,气候倾向率为-112 MJ·m-2·(10 a)-1。1993—2022年沈阳市太阳能资源总量等级由丰富转为很丰富,直射比等级由高、中转为很高。总辐射量、直接辐射量在年、月尺度上均与日照百分率、相对湿度、霾日数存在较好的相关关系,2013—2022年是1993—2022年中的日照百分率最高、相对湿度最低、霾日数最少的年份段,3个气象因素的叠加作用可能是导致近10 a沈阳市太阳辐射年总辐射和直接辐射显著升高、散射辐射降低的主要原因。分别以年总辐射量、月大气透明系数为因变量,以3个气象因素作为自变量,构建多元线性回归模型,模型在沈阳市和朝阳市的验证结果均通过显著性检验,年、月总辐射量模拟值与实测值的相关系数分别达到0.654和0.965以上,模拟准确度分别达到92%和90%以上。

关键词: 太阳能资源, 日照百分率, 相对湿度, 霾日数, 多元线性回归

Abstract: Using solar radiation and conventional meteorological observation data from the Shenyang national meteorological station between 1993 and 2022,this study analyzes the changes in solar radiation and its relationship with meteorological factors in this region.The results show that both the annual total radiation and direct radiation in Shenyang have shown continuously increasing,with climate inclination rates of 237 MJ·m-2·(10 a)-1 and 349 MJ·m-2·(10 a)-1,respectively.The diffuse radiation is negatively correlated with both total radiation and direct radiation,with a climate inclination rate of -112 MJ·m-2·(10 a)-1.From 1993 to 2022,the total solar energy resource level in Shenyang increased from abundant to very abundant,and the direct radiation ratio level changed from high/medium to very high.Total radiation and direct radiation showed good correlations with sunshine percentage,relative humidity,and haze days at both annual and monthly scales.From 2013 to 2022,Shenyang had the highest sunshine percentage,lowest relative humidity,and fewest haze days during the 1993-2022 period.The combined effect of these three meteorological factors likely contributed to the significant increase in annual total radiation and direct radiation,and the decrease in diffuse radiation in Shenyang over the past decade.Multiple linear regression models were established using annual total radiation and monthly atmospheric transparency coefficient as dependent variables and the three meteorological factors as independent variables.The validation results of these models in both Shenyang and Chaoyang passed significance tests,with correlation coefficients between simulated and measured values of annual and monthly total radiation exceeding 0.654 and 0.965,respectively,and simulation accuracies exceeding 92% and 90%.

Key words: Solar energy resources, Sunshine percentage, Relative humidity, Haze days, Multiple linear regression

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