主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报

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辽宁石油资源消耗变化及影响因子模拟分析

吴亚男   

  1. 辽宁省环境科学研究院 沈阳110031
  • 收稿日期:2006-04-11 修回日期:2006-05-08 出版日期:2006-06-01 发布日期:2006-06-01

Simulating Liaoning petroleum resource consumption

WU Yanan   

  1. Liaoning Academy of Environmental Sciences;Shenyang 110031
  • Received:2006-04-11 Revised:2006-05-08 Online:2006-06-01 Published:2006-06-01

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摘要： 以辽宁原油消耗为研究对象,综合运用EKC曲线模型和IPAT模型对辽宁石油资源消耗变化及影响因子进行了模拟分析。结果表明:辽宁处于石油资源消耗的高增长阶段,其极大程度是受经济发展所驱动的。科学技术进步对石油资源消耗有一定程度上的减缓作用,而人口的平稳增长对石油资源退化没有明显的影响;一段时期内,辽宁石油资源消耗还将呈现增长趋势。将2种模型模拟分析方法综合使用,可找出能源可持续性变化的科学依据,为经济发展和环境管理决策提供参考。

关键词: 辽宁, 石油资源消耗, 变化, 影响因子, EKC曲线模型, IPAT模型, 模拟分析

Abstract: According to the status of the crude oil consumption in Liaoning,petroleum resource consumption change and its controlling factors were analyzed with Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC) and IPAT model.The results showed that petroleum resource consumption was still the high consumption level in the coming years in Liaoning.Moreover,petroleum resource degradation in Liaoning had been greatly driven by economic development,whereas technological advancement had mitigated crude oil consumption to some extent.However,the influence of population had very weak effects on oil resource degeneration.Coordinating both models would help more accurately exploring the scientific reasons of energy resources change,and provided the references to decision making as well.