主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

辽西地区区域性大雾气候统计特征及预报

郭刚1;罗春田2;郭玲2   

  1. 1.解放军理工大学气象学院 南京211101;2.北票市气象局 北票122100
  • 收稿日期:2006-02-17 修回日期:2006-04-29 出版日期:2006-06-01 发布日期:2006-06-01

Climatic statistical characteristics of foggy weather in western Liaoning and its prediction

GUO Gang 1 LUO Chuntian 2 GUO Ling 2   

  1. 1.Institute of Meteorology;PLA University of Science & Technology;Nanjing 211101;2.Beipiao Meteorological Bureau;Beipiao 122100
  • Received:2006-02-17 Revised:2006-04-29 Online:2006-06-01 Published:2006-06-01

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摘要： 利用1995～2004年辽西地区4个代表站的大雾观测资料,分析了区域性大雾天气的气候统计特征,统计出易产生大雾天气的地面和高空形势场及出现频率,并从大雾产生的条件和形成机制入手,提出判别大雾出现的预报指标,并结合近10 a的历史资料对预报指标进行了验证,平均历史概括率为81.0%。选取2004年7月1日—12月31日单站历史资料进行抽样预报效果检验,总空报率为22.2%,漏报率为5.1%,检验效果较好。

关键词: 大雾, 大气稳定度, 气候统计特征, 预报指标

Abstract: The climatic statistical characteristics of foggy weather in western Liaoning were analyzed using foggy weather data from four observation stations from 1995 to 2004.The surface and upper circulation favorable to forming fog and its occurrence frequency were also analyzed statistically.The forecast index of fog,proposed on the basis of the condition and mechanism of the fog occurrence,was validated by 10 years'data.The results showed that the general probability was 81%.The validation based on the data from 1st Jul.to 31st Dec.in the year of 2004 indicated that the forecast index of foggy weather could give a good prediction result with the vacancy rate of 22.2% and the miss rate of 5.1%.