关键词: 气温距平, 降水距平百分率, EOF展开, 短期气候预测, 数值预报产品释用

Abstract: Based on monthly temperature and precipitation anomaly in 53 observation stations from 1961 to 2000 in Liaoning province and multi-regress statistical analysis,a short-term climate forecast model was developed to predict monthly mean temperature and precipitation with three main eigenvectors of spatial characteristics of EOF(Empirical Orthogonal Function) expansion as predictions and 500 hPa height anomaly and geostrophic vorticity as the prediction factors.Monthly temperature and precipitation anomaly percentage were predicted by the model in 53 observation stations of Liaoning.The results showed that trend prediction scores of temperature and precipitation were high.More than 87% scores of monthly air temperature anomaly prediction were greater than 66,so did the monthly average Ps scores.The annual average Ps scores of air temperature anomaly predictions were all greater than 75.5 and the total average Ps score was 83.1.Furthermore,70% Ps scores of anomaly percentage of monthly precipitation prediction were above 60,and the monthly average Ps scores were above 53.The annual average Ps scores of anomaly percentage of precipitation prediction were all greater than 58 and the total average score was 66.5.But the effect of abnormity climate prediction was not obvious.