主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报

• 论文 •    下一篇

21世纪中国东北地区气候变化预估

赵宗慈;罗勇   

  1. 中国气象局国家气候中心 北京100081
  • 收稿日期:2007-03-06 修回日期:2007-04-06 出版日期:2007-06-01 发布日期:2007-06-01

Projections of climate change over northeastern China for the 21st century

ZHAO Zongci LUO Yong   

  1. National Climate Center;CMA;Beijing 100081
  • Received:2007-03-06 Revised:2007-04-06 Online:2007-06-01 Published:2007-06-01

PDF (PC)

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摘要： 利用各国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第4次科学评估报告中全球气候系统模式组考虑人类排放情景的计算结果,计算与分析了多个气候模式对21世纪中国东北地区气候变化的集成预估结果。多模式集成预估结果表明:到21世纪后期,由于人类排放增加的影响,中国东北地区气温将可能较目前变暖3.0℃或以上,降水将可能增加。需要注意这种气候变化对中国东北地区社会经济的长远影响。

关键词: 世纪, 全球气候系统模式, 人类排放增加, 预估, 中国东北地区

Abstract: The projections of climate change over northeastern China for the 21st century by using the global climate system models with the SRES A2,A1B and B1 that joined the IPCC fourth scientific assessment report had been analyzed in this paper.The multi-model integration indicated that the temperature over northeastern China could increase more 3 ℃ during the end of the 21st century for the increase of human emissions.At the same time,the precipitation would probably increase.The long-term impacts of climate change on the social and economic development over northeastern China should be noticed.