主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

CAPPS模式在石家庄市应用的效果检验

陈静1;范引琪2;李杰3   

  1. 1.石家庄市气象局 河北石家庄050081;2.河北省气象科学研究所 河北石家庄050021;3.承德市气象局 河北承德067000
  • 收稿日期:2008-01-02 修回日期:2008-02-18 出版日期:2008-04-01 发布日期:2008-04-01

Validation of CAPPS in Shijiazhuang,Hebei province

CHEN Jing1 FAN Yin-qi2 LI Jie3   

  1. 1.Shijiazhuang Meteorological Bureau;Shijiazhuang 050081;China;2.Institute of Meteorological Science in Hebei Province;Shijiazhuang 050051;China;3.Chengde Meteorological Bureau;Chengde 067000;China
  • Received:2008-01-02 Revised:2008-02-18 Online:2008-04-01 Published:2008-04-01

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摘要： 根据《气象部门空气质量预报质量考核和管理暂行办法》,对CAPPS系统在石家庄市空气质量预报中的应用效果进行检验,对CAPPS1.0和CAPPS2.0的预报能力和产生的误差进行了对比分析。结果表明:CAPPS2.0的整体预报水平高于CAPPS1.0,但其预报值多偏高于监测值,这是导致冬季首要污染物正确性评分偏低、夏季高污染预报能力偏低的主要原因。CAPPS系统对前日污染实况依赖性强,预报结果滞后,对高浓度污染日的预报准确率仅为13%,预报能力偏低。

关键词: CAPPS模式, 预报能力, 效果检验

Abstract: According to "the quality test and temporary management methods of air quality prediction in China Meteorological Administration",the validation of the city air pollution numerical prediction system(CAPPS) was conducted in Shijiazhuang.The prediction ability and the errors of CAPPS1.0 and CAPPS2.0 were analyzed.The results indicate that the prediction results of CAPPS2.0 are better than those of CAPPS1.0.However,the prediction value is often higher than the observation value,which results in the lower quality test of the main pollutants in winter and the lower prediction precision of high pollution in summer.The prediction precision of CAPPS depends on the factual pollution situation of yesterday.The prediction results lag and the prediction precision to high concentration pollution days is merely 13%.