关键词: 中国, 未来年, 气温变化, 气候模式, 预估

Abstract:

The projections of the annual mean surface air temperature change in China for the next two decades (2006-2025) have been calculated by about 40 climate models with the various human emission scenarios. The further warming trend with about 0.55 ℃ per two decades is projected for the various human emission scenarios. The warming with 1.08 ℃ (average range from 0.73 ℃ to 1.54 ℃) by 2010 and 1.43 ℃ (average range from 0.73 ℃ to 1.54 ℃) by 2020 as well as 1.39 ℃ (average range from 0.94 ℃ to 2.19 ℃) by 2025 is projected by the ensemble climate models. The detection and assessments of temperature changes in China for the last 16 years (1990-2005) as projected by the multi-models with the various human emission scenarios have been conducted. To compare with the observed temperature changes for the same time, the ensemble multi-models project the warming trends for the last 16 years reasonably, but the warming amplitudes are lower than the observations. Therefore, the detection shows that the projections of temperature changes in China for the next two decades (2006-2025) have a certain capability and reliability. Now, all projections only calculate the increments of human emission scenarios, not including the natural changes in the future.