关键词: 大风, 风向, 风速, 环流分型, 预报指标, 效果检验

Abstract: Based on auto-recorded wind data in 3 ground stations of Fushun from 1986 to 2006, the temporal and spatial distributions of strong winds were discussed. The results indicate that there are many peak value years and vale value years of strong winds in recent 20 years in Fushun. And the cycle is about 7-8 years. The numbers of strong wind days reduce obviously since 2002. The strong wind happens mostly in spring, and it is little in winter. According to the circulation characteristics, the strong winds are divided into 4 types, i.e. two high clipping the low type, east high west low type, west high and east low type, and meso-micro scale type. The forecast indexes and methods of the leaning south strong wind, the leaning north strong wind and the meso-micro scale strong wind are established in order to provide the base for strong wind forecast. The forecast effect is tested in terms of 40 strong winds observation data from 2001 to 2006. And the accuracy rate of forecast reaches 62%.