关键词: 大型工程, 气候可行性论证, 空间分析方法, 广义极值模型, 大型工程, 气候可行性论证, 空间分析方法, 广义极值模型

Abstract: The current climate feasibility demonstration report needs more precise assessment conclusions in order to meet the needs of the meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation for the large-scale projects in planning, design and operational phases. Base on the 1:250000 basic geography information, the short-time meteorological observation data accumulated by the climate feasibility demonstration report of some projects such as a major bridge engineering, a nuclear power engineering, a wind power engineering and so on along the lake, river and sea and at inland area, simultaneously observational data and the historical climate data nearby weather stations, the calculation method of the extreme value of climate factors and the effective spatial interpolation scheme of projects were investigated. The meteorological evaluation method of projects and system workflow were established based on the spatial information analysis method. The application results indicate that the climate feasibility demonstration method based on a spatial trend analysis, a spatial correlation analysis and a spatial regression analysis etc. considers the geography information such as the spatial correlation of meteorological elements, topography and underlying surface and so on around the project area and it has a higher calculation resolution compared with the conventional method. Combining with a generalized extreme analysis method, the method could meet the fine needs of meteorological evaluation of a large project.

Key words:  large-scale projects, climate feasibility demonstration, spatial analysis, Generalized extreme value, Large-scale projects, Climate feasibility demonstration, Spatial analysis method, Generalized extreme value model