镇江市道路结冰影响指数分级预报方法

气象与环境学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 84-88.doi:

镇江市道路结冰影响指数分级预报方法

孙翠梅¹ 马俊峰² 孔启亮¹ 巫丽君³ 王燕¹

1.镇江市气象局，江苏镇江 212003；2.句容市气象局，江苏句容 212400；3. 镇江市丹徒区气象局，江苏镇江 212009

出版日期:2013-08-31 发布日期:2013-08-31

A forecast method of road icing effect index classification in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu province

SUN Cui-mei¹ MA Jun-feng² KONG Qi-liang¹ WU Li-jun³ WANG Yan¹

1.Zhenjiang Meteorological Service, Zhenjiang 212003, China; 2. Jurong Meteorological Service, Jurong 212003, China; 3. Dantu District of Zhenjiang Meteorological Service, Zhenjiang 212003, China

Online:2013-08-31 Published:2013-08-31

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用2010年3月至2003年12月镇江市水泥路面、柏油路面两种下垫面的地面气温数据，分析镇江市道路结冰的气候特征，结合降水性质、是否有积雪、日最低气温和日平均气温，定义道路结冰影响指数，并对其分级预报进行检验。结果表明：镇江市道路结冰月季分布不均，主要集中在冬季，11月和3月出现次数很少，其变化趋势与镇江11月至翌年3月常年月平均气温的变化趋势呈反位相；在考虑当日或者前一日出现降雪或者有积雪的情况下，水泥、柏油两种下垫面的地温≤0 ℃并持续16 h以上将会出现对交通有严重影响的道路结冰；道路结冰主要出现在夜间，白天如果出现了道路结冰，当日其它时次也会出现严重的道路结冰，对交通的影响将比仅夜间出现更大。道路结冰影响指数对连续的道路结冰具有一定的预报能力，但是空报率比较高。

关键词: 道路结冰指数, 分级预报, 气象因子

Abstract: Based on the air temperature data on the two different underlying surface types that one is the cement pavement and the other is the asphalt pavement from March of 2010 to December of 2003 in Zhenjiang, the climatic characteristics of icy roads were analyzed. Combining precipitation property, with or without snow cover, the daily minimum and mean air temperature, a road icing effect index was defined and the accurate rate of forecast for the different grades was checked. The results show that there is a monthly and seasonal variation for icy roads. It appears mainly in winter and seldom in November and March. Its variation trend is a contrary phase with that of mean air temperature from November to March in Zhenjiang. If it snows or has snow cover in the current day or in the previous day, the ground temperature on the cement and asphalt roads is below or equals to 0 ℃ and lasts more than 16 hours, there will be icy roads influencing the traffic seriously. It appears mainly in the nighttime for icy roads. If it is in the daytime, it has serious icy roads in other times. Meanwhile, the effect of icy roads on the traffic in the daytime is more significant than that only in the nighttime. The road icing effect index could also forecast for continually icy roads, while the false alarm rate is relatively high.

Key words: Road icing index, Classification forecast, Meteorological factor

孙翠梅,马俊峰,孔启亮,巫丽君,王燕. 镇江市道路结冰影响指数分级预报方法[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2013, 29(4): 84-88.

SUN Cui-mei,MA Jun-feng,KONG Qi-liang,WU Li-jun,WANG Yan. A forecast method of road icing effect index classification in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu province[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2013, 29(4): 84-88.

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