主办单位:中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号:ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号:CN 21-1531/P

气象与环境学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4): 83-88.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.04.011

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

秦皇岛市气温与近地面臭氧浓度的关系分析

徐静()   

  1. 秦皇岛市气象局, 河北 秦皇岛 066000
  • 收稿日期:2019-09-16 出版日期:2020-08-30 发布日期:2020-06-16
  • 作者简介:徐静,女, 1966年生,副研级高级工程师,主要从事应用气象、气候变化等研究, E-mail:348760256@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    河北省省级科技计划项目“秦皇岛康养与医疗气象服务研究”(18275402D);秦皇岛市气象局重点工作“秦皇岛市气象指数与气象医学研究”团队项目(ZD201704)

Relationship between near-surface ozone concentration and temperature in Qinhuangdao

Jing XU()   

  1. Qinhuangdao Meteorological Service, Qinhuangdao 066000, China
  • Received:2019-09-16 Online:2020-08-30 Published:2020-06-16

摘要:

利用2013年1月至2014年12月和2017年1月至2019年6月秦皇岛市近地面臭氧(O3)浓度数据和气象资料,采用广义相加模型(GAM),运用回归分析方法和基于R语言的统计分析软件,控制气压、相对湿度、日照时数、总云量等要素的混杂效应及时间变化趋势,分析春季、夏季、秋季、冬季气温与O3浓度的关系。结果表明:秦皇岛市O3浓度夏季最高、春季次之,冬季最低,与气温变化趋势基本一致,呈现明显的季节变化。各季气温与O3浓度呈非线性相关关系,拟合曲线存在拐点,拐点两侧相关效应存在明显差异,主要表现为春季日平均气温高于15.0℃时,气温每升高1℃,O3浓度增加7.6 μg·m-3,增长速率是气温低于15.0℃时的4.0倍;夏季日平均气温高于27.2℃时,气温每升高1℃,O3浓度增加13.9 μg·m-3,增长速率是气温低于27.2℃时的11.6倍;秋季日平均气温高于21.4℃时,气温每升高1℃,O3浓度增加47.5 μg·m-3,增长速率是气温低于21.4℃时的19.1倍;冬季O3浓度偏低且变化较为平稳,气温对O3浓度的变化影响不大。由于春夏两季O3浓度基础值偏高,因此,夏季和春季气温偏高时O3浓度快速增加现象应引起高度重视。

关键词: O3浓度, 气温, 广义相加模型, 回归系数β, 增长速率

Abstract:

Based on the near-surface ozone (O3) concentration data and the meteorological observation data of Qinhuangdao from January of 2013 to December of 2014 and from January of 2017 to June of 2019, this paper analyzes the correlation between O3 concentration and temperature in spring, summer, autumn and winter using the generalized additive model (GAM), regression analysis method, and EmpowerStats statistical analysis software based on R language controlling the hybrid effect of related meteorological elements (including air pressure, relative humidity, sunshine duration, total cloud cover, etc.) and time variation trends.The results show that the O3 concentration reaches its maximum in summer, and is relatively lower in spring and the lowest in winter, respectively, which is closely related to the seasonal change in temperature.In each season, the O3 concentration shows a nonlinear correlation with the air temperature, and the fitted curve has an inflection point.However, the correlation relationships on both sides of the inflection point have clear difference.Specifically, in spring, the O3 concentration increases by 7.6 μg·m-3 with the 1 ℃ increase of temperature when the daily mean air temperature (DMT) is above 15.0 ℃ and the increase rate is the 4 times of that when the DMT is below 15.0 ℃.In summer, when the DMT is above 27.2 ℃, the O3 concentration increases significantly with the DMT with a rate of 13.9 μg·m-3 per 1 ℃ which is the 11.6 times of that below 27.2 ℃.In autumn, when the DMT is above 21.4 ℃, the ozone concentration increases significantly with the increase of temperature with a rate of 47.5 μg·m-3per 1 ℃ which is the 19.1 times of that below 21.4 ℃.On the contrary, the variation of O3 concentration in winter is relatively stable and is hardly affected by the temperature.Notably, the rapid increase of O3 concentration under the high temperature in summer and spring should be paid high attention due to its high basic value.

Key words: O3 concentration, Air temperature, Generalized additive model(GMA), Regression coefficient β, Growth rate

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