主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (6): 68-73.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.06.008

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

1961—2020年辽宁省暖冬现象气候特征分析

李倩1(),张婉莹2,林毅2,林益同1,周晓宇1,王大钧1,林蓉1,朱玲1   

  1. 1. 沈阳区域气候中心, 辽宁 沈阳 110166
    2. 辽宁省气象服务中心, 辽宁 沈阳 110166
  • 收稿日期:2020-05-12 出版日期:2020-12-30 发布日期:2021-01-06
  • 作者简介:李倩, 女, 1985年生, 工程师, 主要从事气候监测、气候影响评价等研究, E-mail:leeqian1221@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    辽宁省气象局科学技术研究课题(BA201804);辽宁省气象局科学技术研究课题(BA201902);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201910)

Analysis of the climatic characteristics of warm winter in Liaoning province from 1961 to 2020

Qian LI1(),Wan-ying ZHANG2,Yi LIN2,Yi-tong LIN1,Xiao-yu ZHOU1,Da-jun WANG1,Rong LIN1,Ling ZHU1   

  1. 1. Shenyang Regional Climate Center, Shenyang 110166, China
    2. Meteorological Service Center of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110166, China
  • Received:2020-05-12 Online:2020-12-30 Published:2021-01-06

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摘要：

利用1961—2020年辽宁省56个气象站冬季逐日气温数据，根据国家标准《暖冬等级》，以1990—2020年为气候值作为参考，综合采用气候倾向率、IDW、滑动t检验突变分析以及小波分析等方法，分析辽宁省近60 a冬季平均气温的时空变化趋势，单站暖冬及区域暖冬事件的气候变化特征。结果表明：近60 a来辽宁省冬季平均气温以0.3℃/10 a的速率升高，辽宁中部和东部地区变暖趋势最为显著；20世纪90年代前的30 a属于偏冷时段，但增温效应强于后30 a，冬季平均气温在1987年前后出现了明显的由冷转暖的突变，1971年出现了相对较弱的冷暖转变；1988年后逐年单站暖冬事件的发生整体比1961—1987年出现单站暖冬事件明显增多。发生频次较高的地区分布在辽宁中部和东南部地区，为16—20次；近60 a来共有16次区域暖冬事件，21世纪后的20 a内共出现9次区域暖冬事件，占总数的60%；区域暖冬事件以准22 a和2—3 a为振荡周期。

关键词: 冬季气温, 暖冬指标, 暖冬频次

Abstract:

Based on the daily temperature in winter from 56 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2020 in Liaoning province, the temporal and spatial change in the average temperature and the climatic characteristics of warm winter events at a single station and the region scale were analyzed using climate tendency rate, IDW, sliding t test mutation analysis and wavelet analysis methods.According to the national standards of warm winter, the climate value in 1990-2020 was selected as the reference one.The results show that the average temperature in winter in Liaoning province increases at a rate of 0.3℃ per decade in recent 60 years.The warming trend is most significant in the central and eastern Liaoning province.In the first 30 years of the 1990s, it is a relatively cold period, but its warming effect is stronger than that in the last 30 years.The average temperature in winter shows an obvious abrupt change from cold to warm in around 1987.There is a relatively weak change from cold to warm in 1971.After 1988, the occurrence of warm winter events at a single station increases significantly compared with that in 1961-1987.The high frequency of warming events mainly happens at the central and southeast parts of Liaoning province, with 16-20 warming winter events.There are sixteen times of regional warming winter events in the recent 60 years.In the first 20 years after the 21st century, there are nine times of regional warm winter events, accounting for 60% of the total events.Regional warm winter events oscillate in periods of quasi-22 years and 2-3 years.

Key words: Winter temperature, Warm winter index, Warm winter frequency

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