主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (2): 77-83.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2021.02.011

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于三参数Weibull分布的安徽省年最大风速均一性检验

温华洋1(),朱华亮1,刘壮2,孔芹芹1,马文周2,陈凤娇1   

  1. 1. 安徽省气象信息中心, 安徽 合肥 230031
    2. 合肥工业大学, 安徽 合肥 230023
  • 收稿日期:2020-04-13 出版日期:2021-04-01 发布日期:2021-04-02
  • 作者简介:温华洋, 男, 1983年生, 高级工程师, 主要从事气象数据产品研发, E-mail: wenhy12@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41805023);安徽省气象局研究性业务科技攻关项目(YJG202003)

A homogeneity test for annual maximum wind speed based on three-parameter Weibull distribution

Hua-yang WEN1(),Hua-liang ZHU1,Zhuang LIU2,Qin-qin KONG1,Wen-zhou MA2,Feng-jiao CHEN1   

  1. 1. Anhui Meteorological Information Centre, Hefei 230031, China
    2. Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China
  • Received:2020-04-13 Online:2021-04-01 Published:2021-04-02

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摘要：

以安徽省56个国家级气象站1980—2018年年最大风速序列为研究对象，采用基于三参数Weibull分布的变点检验方法对年最大风速序列均一性进行检验，以郎溪站数据为例，给出了检验和分析的具体过程，最后将该方法检验结果与PMFT法、SNHT法检验结果进行了对比分析。结果表明：56个站点的年最大风速序列均通过Weibull分布检验，而通过正态分布检验的年最大风速序列只有45个，表明年最大风速序列更符合Weibull分布；Weibull法检测出的18个非均一点中有15个得到印证，检验准确率为83.3%，PMFT法检测出的4个非均一点均由迁站造成，检验准确率为100%，SNHT检测出的20个非均一点中有15个得到印证，检验准确率为75%。造成序列非均一的主要原因是台站迁移、仪器换型、仪器高度调整和探测环境变化等；综合比较发现，PMFT法对年最大风速序列非均一点的敏感程度不如Weibull和SNHT，而SNHT法对待检序列要求较高，且检验准确率不及Weibull法，表明Weibull方法在年最大风速序列的均一性检验中更具有优势。

关键词: Weibull分布, 年最大风速, 均一性检验

Abstract:

Using the dataset of annual maximum wind speed from 56 national meteorological stations in Anhui province from 1980 to 2018, a homogeneity test method based on three-parameter Weibull distribution was used for the test of the annual maximum wind speed.Taking the data from Langxi meteorological station as an example, the detailed process of experiment and analysis for this method was given.In the end, the performance of this method was compared with those of PMFT and SNHT methods.The results show that the data of annual maximum wind speed from 56 stations pass the Weibull distribution test, while only 45 stations pass the normal distribution test in the annual maximum wind speed sequence, which indicates that the annual maximum wind speed is more consistent with the Weibull distribution.18 inhomogeneity points are detected using the Weibull method, and 15 of these are verified with an accuracy of 83.3%.The detected 4 inhomogeneity points using the PMFT method are caused by the relocation of the weather station, with the accuracy reaching 100%.Meanwhile, 15 of the detected 20 inhomogeneity points using the SNHT method are verified, and the accuracy is 75%.The main reason for the sequence inhomogeneity is the relocation of the weather station, the changes in instrument types and detection environment, and adjustment of instrument height.It is found that the PMFT method has a relatively lower sensitivity to the inhomogeneity of annual maximum wind speed sequence than the Weibull and SNHT methods.Meanwhile, the SNHT method requires a high quality test data sequence and its accuracy is lower than that of the Weibull method, suggesting that the Weibull method has a better performance on the homogeneity test of the annual maximum wind speed sequence.

Key words: Weibull distribution, Annual maximum wind speed, Homogeneity test

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