主办单位:中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号:ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号:CN 21-1531/P

气象与环境学报

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

晋江城市空气质量污染潜势统计预报方法初探

赵惠芳1;陈雅莲1;唐会荣2;杨建东1   

  1. 1.晋江市气象局,福建 晋江 362200;2.石狮市气象局,福建 石狮 362700
  • 收稿日期:2009-05-07 修回日期:2009-06-01 出版日期:2009-10-28 发布日期:2009-10-28

Preliminary study on urban air quality pollution potential statistical forecasting method in Jinjiang, Fujian province

ZHAO Hui-fang1;CHEN Ya-lian1;TANG Hui-rong2;YANG Jian-dong1   

  1. 1.Jinjiang Meteorological Bureau, Jinjiang 362200, China; 2. Shishi Meteorological Bureau, Shishi 362700, China
  • Received:2009-05-07 Revised:2009-06-01 Online:2009-10-28 Published:2009-10-28

摘要: 根据实际工作经验,通过分析气象条件对晋江空气质量的影响,建立了一套以天气形势为依托、综合考虑气象要素变化、以分类法和趋势外推法相结合的空气污染潜势的统计预报方法。经实践检验:用该方法预报空气质量为Ⅰ级和Ⅲ级以上的准确率分别为95.2%和79.2%,API指数误差在[-10,10]的命中率达到82.5%。预报方法简单、经济、实用,预报准确率较高,可为沿海地区中小城市今后开展空气质量预报提供参考。

关键词: 空气质量, 污染潜势, 气象条件, 统计预报方法

Abstract: Based on the effects of meteorological factors on air quality, together with weather situation and meteorological elements, a set of pollution potential statistical forecast method was developed with practical experience. The forecast accuracy rates of air quality over grades Ⅰ and Ⅲ reach 95.2% and 79.2%, respectively. The hit rates of API index errors in the range from -10 to 10 reach 82.5%. This forecast method is simple, economic and practical and has the higher accuracy rate, so it can provide the references for air quality forecast of middle and small cities in coastal area.

中图分类号: