1964—2008年辽宁省旱涝时空分布特征及演变趋势

气象与环境学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (2): 50-55.doi:

1964—2008年辽宁省旱涝时空分布特征及演变趋势

唐亚平¹ 张凯²李忠娴² 李岚¹ 戴新童¹ 严晓瑜³

1.辽宁省气象科技服务中心,辽宁沈阳 110016； 2.辽宁省防雷技术服务中心,辽宁沈阳 110016；3.宁夏回族自治区气象服务中心,宁夏银川 750000

收稿日期:2010-12-13 修回日期:2011-02-22 出版日期:2011-04-30 发布日期:2011-02-22

Temporal and spatial distributions of drought/flood and their evolution trends from 1964 to 2008 in Liaoning province

TANG Ya-ping¹ ZHANG Kai² LI Zhong-xian² LI Lan¹ DAI Xin-tong¹ YAN Xiao-yu³

1. Liaoning Meteorological Service Center of Science and Technology, Shenyang 110016, China; 2. Liaoning Lightning Protection Technology and Service Center, Shenyang 110016, China; 3. Ningxia Meteorological Service Center, Yinchuan 750000, China

Received:2010-12-13 Revised:2011-02-22 Online:2011-04-30 Published:2011-02-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1964-2008年辽宁51站降水量资料，采用Z指数和区域旱涝HL指数分析了辽宁省近45 a旱涝变化。结果表明：近45 a辽西、辽北以及辽东南地区单站旱涝发生频率均明显高于辽中、辽东地区；区域性洪涝指数逐渐减小，区域性干旱指数逐步增大。对辽宁51站Z指数进行了EOF和REOF分析，可知辽宁旱涝的空间分布特征除受大尺度天气系统所带来的辽宁降水量变化影响外，同时还受地理位置、海陆分布等多种因子影响。通过REOF方法可将全区分为4个区域，即Ⅰ辽西地区；Ⅱ辽北、辽西北地区；Ⅲ辽中、辽东地区；Ⅳ辽东南地区。

关键词: 降水, 旱涝, Z指数, EOF, REOF

Abstract: Based on the annual precipitation data from 51 weather stations from 1964 to 2008 in Liaoning province, the characteristics of drought and flood were analyzed with Z index for a single station and HL index for a region. The results indicate that the occurrence frequencies of drought and flood in a single station are higher in the western, northern and southeastern regions than in the middle and eastern regions of Liaoning province. The regional flood index decreases gradually, while the regional drought index increases gradually. Z indices of 51 weather stations are analyzed by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) methods. It shows that spatial distributions of drought and flood are influenced by not only rainfall change brought by large-scale weather system, but also different factors such as geographical location, land and sea distributions and so on. The study areas can be divided into 4 regions by REOF method, namely, Ⅰregion is the western Liaoning province; Ⅱregion is the northern and northwestern Liaoning province; Ⅲregion is the central and eastern Liaoning province and Ⅳregion is the southeastern Liaoning province.

Key words: Precipitation, Flood/drought, Z-index, Empirical orthogonal function (EOF), Rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF)

中图分类号:

P468.0⁺24

唐亚平, 张凯, 李忠娴, 李岚, 戴新童, 严晓瑜. 1964—2008年辽宁省旱涝时空分布特征及演变趋势[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2011, 27(2): 50-55.

TANG Ya-Ping, ZHANG Kai, LI Zhong-Xian, LI Lan, DAI Xin-Tong, YAN Xiao-Yu. Temporal and spatial distributions of drought/flood and their evolution trends from 1964 to 2008 in Liaoning province[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2011, 27(2): 50-55.

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