关键词: 气象服务, 效益评估, 农业

Abstract:

 Scientific and accurate evaluation on the benefit from agricultural meteorological services in China is important to decision makers for government and enterprises and improving disaster prevention and reduction ability of agricultural meteorology. According to the characteristics of agricultural meteorological services and the combined method of a Dose-response analysis and a Delphi technique, an evaluation mode for agricultural meteorological service benefit was established. This evaluation mode takes measurement value of meteorological service contribution rate for typical unit as the reference value, and meteorological service contribution rate in agricultural production was estimated using an expert evaluation method. Based on the above-mentioned method, the benefit value of agricultural meteorological service in He’nan province was evaluated as a case study. The results indicate that the meteorological service contribution rate for farm industry is 6.90 %, followed by husbandry of 4.20%, forestry of 3.93%, and agricultural service of 3.36% and fishing of 2.90%. At the same time, the analysis of the dynamic variation of agricultural meteorological service benefit in He’nan province since 2007 shows that the value of the meteorological service benefit improves with the increasing agricultural production value. The agricultural production value increases from 12.827 billion yuan in 2007 to 19.165 billion yuan in 2010, and annual increased speed reaches 14.32%. Average contribution rate of agricultural meteorological service in He’nan province remains between 5.60% and 5.90%, which is much higher than average of China. It suggests that agricultural meteorological service is important to agricultural production in He’nan province.

Key words:  Meteorological service, Benefit evaluation, Agriculture