主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (6): 25-31.doi:

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

风电场风速降尺度预报方法对比分析

李得勤  陈力强  周晓珊  杨森  王恕  崔锦   

  1. 中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所，辽宁 沈阳 110016
  • 出版日期:2012-12-28 发布日期:2012-12-28

Comparison analysis of downscaling forecast methods on wind speed in wind power field

LI De-qin  CHEN Li-qiang  ZHOU Xiao-shan  YANG Sen  WANG Shu  CUI Jing   

  1. Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110016, China
  • Online:2012-12-28 Published:2012-12-28

PDF (PC)

807

被引次数

13

摘要： 使用中尺度数值天气预报业务模式9 km和3 km分辨率的模式输出产品，分别应用小尺度模式CALMET模式和双线性插值(BLI)方法将预报风速进行降尺度处理，并对比预报风速和风塔观测资料。结果表明：WRF模式9 km分辨率的模式输出经过CALMET模式降尺度以后得到的风速预报效果比3 km分辨率的模式输出略好。同时，由于中尺度数值预报模式分辨率本身较高，使用BLI也可以得到较好的风速预报。将风速分为0 m·s-1≤风速<5 m·s-1，5 m·s-1≤风速<10 m·s-1和风速≥10 m·s-1共3个等级，检验3个风速等级的预报偏差百分比得出，CALMET模式和BLI方法对10 m·s-1以上的大风的预报效果相对较差；如何对大风预报进行订正对风速预报准确率的提高具有重要的意义。

关键词: 风能, 风速, 降尺度, 中尺度数值预报, CALMET

Abstract:  The small-scale CALMET model and bilinear interpolation (BLI) method were used to downscale the output of mesoscale numerical weather prediction from the WRF model using both 9 km and 3 km resolutions. The simulated and observed wind speeds were compared. The results show that forecast accuracy of wind speed after downscaling with the CALMET model is higher with 9 km resolution than that with 3 km resolution. At the same time, the forecast effect of wind speed is also good using the BLI method because of the spatial resolution of mesoscale numerical weather prediction model is high. Wind speed is divided into three levels, namely, 0 m·s-1≤wind speed<5 m·s-1, 5 m·s-1≤wind speed<10 m·s-1 and wind speed≥10 m·s-1, and the percentage of prediction errors of three levels are tested. It shows that forecast results for wind speed ≥10 m·s-1 are poor no matter whether the CALMET model or the BLI method. It is therefore important to correct strong wind forecast for improvement of wind speed forecast accuracy.

Key words: Wind energy, Wind speed, Down-scaling, Mesoscale numerical weather prediction, CALMET