主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (6): 81-87.doi:

• 快报 • 上一篇    下一篇

B2气候情景下2011—2050年辽宁农业气候资料演变特征

刘景利1 纪仰慧2 米娜3 胡丹1 史奎桥1 周丽娜4 李石5 蔡福3   

  1. 1.锦州市生态与农业气象中心，辽宁 锦州 121001；2. 黑龙江省气象科学研究所，黑龙江 哈尔滨，150030；3.中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所，辽宁 沈阳 110016； 4.葫芦岛市连山区气象局，辽宁 葫芦岛 125001；5.沈阳市气象局，辽宁 沈阳 110168
  • 出版日期:2012-12-28 发布日期:2012-12-28

Evolvement character of agricultural climate resources in Liaoning province from 2011 to 2050 based on B2 climate change scenarios

LIU Jing-li1 JI Yang-hui2 MI Na3 HU Dan1 SHI Kui-qiao1 ZHOU Li-na4 LI Shi5 CAI Fu2   

  1. 1. Jinzhou Ecological and Agricultural Meteorology Center, Jinzhou 121001, China; 2. Heilongjiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Harbin 150030, China; 3. Institute of Atmosphere Environment, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110016, China; 4. Meteorological Service in Lianshan District of Huludao, Huludao 125001, China; 5. Shenyang Meteorological Service, Shenyang 110168, China
  • Online:2012-12-28 Published:2012-12-28

PDF (PC)

645

摘要： 利用区域气候模式PRECIS输出资料，基于时间序列分析及空间分析方法对2011—2050年B2气候情景辽宁省农业气候资源时空演变特征进行分析。结果表明：辐射资源增多趋势不显著，但在2031—2040年达到峰值；生长季降水呈减少趋势，与辐射资源变化呈相反位相，减幅从西向东依次增大，辽东大部地区减幅达20 mm/10a以上。不同年代降水多寡将对洪涝和干旱事件的发生具有指示意义。大于等于10 ℃积温呈极显著增多趋势，大部地区增幅在100 (℃·d)/10a。辽西东部和辽北西部地区初霜日显著延后1—3 d，辽宁北部和辽东部分地区终霜日显著提前1—2 d。初霜日的延后和终霜日的提前使得无霜期延长，说明辽宁地区未来40 a热量资源明显增多，这将为应对气候变化调整农业种植结构提供参考。

关键词: B2气候情景, 辽宁, 农业气候资源, 演变特征

Abstract: Based on the output data of the regional climate model PRECIS, the temporal and spatial evolvement characteristics of agricultural climate resources considering future climate change scenarios of B2 (2011—2050) in Liaoning province were investigated by the methods of a time series analysis and a spatial analysis. The results indicate that the increasing trend of radiation resources is not significant, but has a peak value from 2031 to 2040. Precipitation is in a decreasing trend during the growing season, and the changes of radiation resource and precipitation are contrary. The decreasing amplitude of precipitation increases from the west to the east, and reaches 20 mm/decade in the east of Liaoning province. Precipitation is indicative to flood and drought events in the different periods. The accumulated temperature (≥10℃) is in an obvious increasing trend, and its increasing amplitude is 100 ℃·d/decade in most of Liaoning province. The beginning date of frost is delayed 1-3 days in the east of western Liaoning province and the west of northern Liaoning province, while the ending date of frost is  advanced in about 1-2 days in the north and the east of Liaoning province. The changes of the beginning and ending dates make frost-free season are prolonged, and it suggests that the thermal resource will increase obviously in future 40 years, which will provide the references for the adjustment of agricultural planting structure in order to respond to climate change.

Key words: B2 climate change scenarios, Liaoning province, Agricultural climate resources, Evolution characteristics