夏季欧亚中高纬集合预报环流系统的适用性分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2023.01.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)和加拿大气象中心(CMC)集合预报资料与ERA-Interim再分析资料, 采用距平相关系数、均方根误差和相对作用特征曲线分析法, 探讨夏季欧亚中高纬集合预报环流系统的适用性。结果表明: 集合概率预报效果随着预报时效增加而降低, ECMWF集合预报的效果最佳, CMC集合预报的效果最差; ECMWF集合预报可用预报时效为192 h, NCEP集合预报为180 h, CMC集合预报为168 h; 集合平均的预报效果优于集合成员, 控制预报略优于其他成员。其中, 集合平均的可用预报时效较控制预报延长12 h, 较其他成员延长36 h; 相同预报模式在不同起报时间的可用预报时效和精确度的差异明显; 阻塞高压和西太平洋副热带高压的预报效果在研究时段具有周期性, 但总体随预报时效延长而降低, 阻塞高压区在240 h预报时效后降幅减缓, 乌拉尔山阻塞高压甚至呈增加趋势, 300 h预报时效附近预报效果达到最好, 西太平洋副热带高压可用预报时效低于阻塞高压, 但精确度明显高于阻塞高压。

关键词: 中高纬度, 环流系统, 集合预报, 预报性能

Abstract:

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Center for Environmental Predictions (NCEP), and Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) ensemble forecasts and ERA-Interim reanalysis data were analyzed to understand the skill of the circulation system in Eurasian middle-high latitude in summer based on the anomaly correlation coefficient, root mean square error, and relative operating characteristic curve method.The results show that it captures the observed features of the best applicability for the ECMWF ensemble forecast and the worst applicability for the CMC ensemble forecast, but underestimates applicability showing a decreasing trend with increasing forecast lead time.A skillful forecast can be obtained up to 192 h for the ECMWF ensemble forecast, 180 h for the NCEP ensemble forecast, and 168 h for the CMC ensemble forecast.The ensemble-averaged forecast is more reliable than the control forecast, and the control forecast is slightly higher than the other members.For available predictive timeliness, the ensemble-averaged forecast is 12 h longer than the control forecast and 36 h longer than other members.There are obvious differences in available predictive timeliness and accuracy of the same numerical forecast model at different starting times.Although the predictive effects of the blocking high and the West Pacific subtropical high are periodic in the study period, the rate of deterioration in forecast ability slows down after 240 h in the blocking high areas, there is even an increasing trend in the Ural blocking high and the prediction effect is the best near the 300 h.The available predictive timeliness of the West Pacific subtropical high is lower than that of the blocking high, but its accuracy is obviously higher than that of the blocking high.

Key words: Middle-high latitude, Circulation system, Ensemble forecasting, Prediction performance

中图分类号:

P459.9

荀学义,杨保成,胡英华,张敏. 夏季欧亚中高纬集合预报环流系统的适用性分析[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2023, 39(1): 17-25.

Xue-yi XUN,Bao-cheng YANG,Ying-hua HU,Min ZHANG. Verification on the summertime Eurasian middle-high latitude ensemble forecasting circulation system[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(1): 17-25.

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