云微物理方案对暖区暴雨预报的影响研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2025.04.009

气象与环境学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4): 79-87.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2025.04.009

• 论文 • 上一篇

云微物理方案对暖区暴雨预报的影响研究

谢祖欣^1,2,3, 花少烽⁴, 林文^1,2,3, 李丹^1,2,3, 余永江^1,2,3, 冯宏芳^1,2,3

1. 福建省气象科学研究所, 福建福州 350008;
2. 福建省灾害天气重点实验室, 福建福州 350008;
3. 中国气象局海峡灾害天气重点开放实验室, 福建福州 350008;
4. 中国气象局人工影响天气中心, 北京 100081

收稿日期:2024-02-21 修回日期:2024-08-02 发布日期:2026-01-10
通讯作者: 冯宏芳,男,正高级工程师,E-mail:18805909198@163.com。 E-mail:18805909198@163.com
作者简介:谢祖欣,女,1987年生,高级工程师,主要从事人工影响天气研究和云物理机制模拟研究,E-mail:xie_zuxin@163.com。
基金资助:
福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2021J01452、2023N0029)和国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3007603-04)共同资助。

Study on the impact of cloud micro-physics schemes on the forecast of warm regions heavy rainfall

XIE Zuxin^1,2,3, HUA Shaofeng⁴, LIN Wen^1,2,3, LI Dan^1,2,3, YU Yongjing^1,2,3, FENG Hongfang^1,2,3

1. Fujian Meteorological Science Institute, Fuzhou 350008, China;
2. Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Fuzhou 350008, China;
3.;
4.

Received:2024-02-21 Revised:2024-08-02 Published:2026-01-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 采用WRFv3.7模式对2018年5月7日福建东南部沿海一次暖区暴雨过程进行预报,选取的5种微物理方案都能较好反映此次降水的落区和量级;进一步对模拟结果较好的Thompson(THOM)和WDM6方案开展云系特征和微物理机制分析。结果表明:WDM6方案对降水的预报优于THOM方案;两种方案对云系宏观特征、液相水成物含量和云滴源汇项的预报有较好一致性;而对冰相水成物的预报差异较大。THOM方案中冰相水成物主要是雪(81.4%),其次是霰(4.8%),冰晶含量很少;WDM6方案中,冰相水成物中雪(29.7%)和霰(33.3%)在总水成物中的占比相当。THOM方案中,地面降水主要来源于液相过程—雨滴碰并云滴增长(58.7%),其次是雪的融化(25.3%);WDM6方案中,雨滴的主要源项是霰的融化(67%),其次是碰并云滴增长(18.4%)。

关键词: 暖区暴雨, 微物理方案, 积层混合云, WRF模式

Abstract: WRFv3.7 model was applied to simulate the warm-sector precipitation process in the coast area of Fujian on May 7,2018.Five selected microphysics schemes all effectively indicated the location and amount of precipitation.The Thompson (THOM) and WDM6 schemes with better simulation results were selected to further analyze the characteristics and micro-physics mechanisms of cloud system.The results showed that the forecast of precipitation in the WDM6 scheme was better than that of the THOM scheme.These two schemes exhibited good consistency in simulating cloud macroscopic characteristics,liquid water content,and cloud sources and sinks.However,some differences existed in simulating ice water content:in the THOM scheme,ice-phase hydrometeor mainly consisted of snow (81.4%),graupel (4.8%),and a small amount of ice.In the WDM6 scheme,snow (29.7%) and graupel (33.3%) account for half of the total aqueous contents.In the THOM scheme,surface precipitation mainly originated from liquid processes within clouds,with rain collecting cloud water (58.7%) as the primary source,followed by snow melting (25.3%).In the WDM6 scheme,the main source of rain was the melting of graupel (67%),followed by the growth of rain collecting cloud water (18.4%).

Key words: Warm-sector rainstorm, Micro-physical mechanism, Mixed convective-stratiform cloud, Weather Research and Forecasting Mode

中图分类号:

P426.5⁺1

谢祖欣, 花少烽, 林文, 李丹, 余永江, 冯宏芳. 云微物理方案对暖区暴雨预报的影响研究[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2025, 41(4): 79-87.

XIE Zuxin, HUA Shaofeng, LIN Wen, LI Dan, YU Yongjing, FENG Hongfang. Study on the impact of cloud micro-physics schemes on the forecast of warm regions heavy rainfall[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2025, 41(4): 79-87.

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云微物理方案对暖区暴雨预报的影响研究

Study on the impact of cloud micro-physics schemes on the forecast of warm regions heavy rainfall

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