城市适应气候变化能力评价—以朝阳市为例

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.06.015

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on daily air temperature, precipitation data in Chaoyang city during 1961-2016, and socioeconomic statistics data from 2007 to 2016, the evaluation system of urban adaptability to climate change including climate and urban subsystem was constructed with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method.The adaptive ability is divided into five levels according to the comprehensive index, and the membership degree of climate risk, city adaptation, comprehensive adaptability were dynamically assessed during 2007-2016.The result shows that the risk of climate subsystem increases significantly from a "little low" to a "general" level, which is attributed to the increases in disasters and extreme climate risks.With the development of the urban economy and the improvement of public services, the adaptation of the city subsystem is constantly improved from a "low" level to a "high" level.Under the combined effect of climate and city, the comprehensive adaptability of Chaoyang increases obviously from a "little low" to a "little high" level with a rate of 0.029/a in the past ten years.

Key words: Climate change, City system, Analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

CLC Number:

P468

Yan CUI,Xue AO,Xiao-yu ZHOU,Tao WANG,Rong LIN,Chun-yu ZHAO,Ming-yan LIU,Xue YI. Assessment of urban comprehensive adaptability to climate change: a case study of Chaoyang[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2020, 36(6): 122-129.

Figures/Tables 6

Table 1

Table 2

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Fig.4

References 22

1	IPCC . Climate change 2013:the physical science basis[M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2013: 2- 5.
2	肖光梁, 陈传雷, 龙晓慧, 等. 辽宁省短时暴雨和大暴雨时空分布与变化特征[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2019, 35 (5): 46- 52.
3	李晶, 王婉昭, 刘东明, 等. 2017年辽宁省春夏精细化气象干旱监测评估[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2019, 35 (3): 100- 105. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2019.03.013
4	周莉, 兰明才, 张舰齐, 等. 2017年冬季长沙一次重度霾污染天气过程气象成因分析[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2019, 35 (3): 45- 51.
5	李树岭, 花丛, 赵玲, 等. 哈尔滨秋季一次持续性重污染过程分析[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2019, 35 (4): 25- 32.
6	陈宜瑜. 对开展全球变化区域适应研究的几点看法[J]. 地球科学进展, 2004, 19 (4): 495- 499. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2004.04.001
7	姜彤. 气候变化影响评估方法应用[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2013: 178- 188.
8	葛全胜, 曲建升, 曾静静, 等. 国际气候变化适应战略与态势分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5 (6): 369- 375. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2009.06.009
9	匡洋, 李浩, 夏军, 等. 气候变化对跨境水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14 (1): 67- 76.
10	崔胜辉, 李旋旗, 李扬, 等. 全球变化背景下的适应性研究综述[J]. 地理科学进展, 2011, 30 (9): 1088- 1098.
11	王长燕, 赵景波, 李小燕. 华北地区气候暖干化的农业适应性对策研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2006, 29 (5): 646- 652. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-6060.2006.05.005
12	陈太根, 董婕, 延军平, 等. 区域气候变化适应度评价-以咸阳市为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2011, 30 (3): 319- 324.
13	冯彩琴.西安市气候变化城郊对比分析及适应度综合评价[D].西安: 陕西师范大学, 2012.
14	谢欣露, 郑艳. 气候适应型城市评价指标体系研究-以北京市为例[J]. 城市与环境研究, 2016, (4): 50- 66.
15	崔利芳, 任学慧. 大连市气候变化适应度评价[J]. 资源科学, 2012, 34 (2): 273- 279.
16	李响, 钱敏蕾, 徐艺扬, 等. 基于区域气候与城市发展耦合模型的气候变化适应度评价-以上海市为例[J]. 复旦学报:自然科学版, 2015, 54 (2): 210- 219.
17	任国玉, 陈峪, 邹旭恺, 等. 综合极端气候指数的定义和趋势分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2010, 15 (4): 354- 364. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2010.04.02
18	汪应洛. 系统工程[M]. 北京: 机械工业出版社, 2003: 120- 130.
19	宋建波, 武春友. 城市化与生态环境协调发展评价研究——以长江三角洲城市群为例[J]. 中国软科学, 2010, (2): 78- 87. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-9753.2010.02.010
20	闫敏慧, 姚秀萍, 王蕾, 等. 用层次分析法确定气象服务评价指标权重[J]. 应用气象学报, 2014, 25 (4): 470- 475. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2014.04.010
21	邓雪, 李家铭, 曾浩健, 等. 层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2012, 42 (7): 93- 100. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0984.2012.07.012
22	中国气象局气候变化中心. 中国气候变化监测公报(2016年)[M]. 北京: 科学出报社, 2017: 16- 20.

目标层	准则层	约束层	指标层
O:城市适应气候变化能力评价指标体系	A1:气候系统 (0.5)	B1：基本气候 (0.122)	C1：气温(0.333) C2：降水(0.667)
		B2：气象灾害 (0.558)	C3：暴雨灾害(0.387) C4：冰雹灾害(0.169) C5：干旱灾害(0.443)
		B3：极端气候 (0.320)	C6：热浪持续指数(0.25) C7：寒潮持续指数(0.25) C8：极端降水贡献率(0.5)
	A2:城市系统 (0.5)	B4：经济发展 (0.443)	C9：地区生产总值(0.584) C10：农业总产值(0.232) C11：建筑业总产值(0.184)
		B5：资源环境建设 (0.169)	C12：人均公园绿地面积(0.443) C13：城市园林绿地面积(0.387) C14：地区造林面积(0.169)
		B6:社会发展 (0.387)	C15：城市供热面积(0.068) C16：人均日生活用水量(0.099) C17：年末供水综合生产能力(0.253) C18：医疗机构实有床位数(0.160) C19：卫生技术人员(0.271) C20：老年人口比例(0.149)

n	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
RI	0	0	0.52	0.89	1.12	1.24	1.36	1.41	1.46	1.49	1.52	1.54	1.56	1.58

[1]	Xue AO, Qing-fei ZHAI, Yan CUI, Xiao-yu ZHOU, Chun-yu ZHAO, Jin-guang ZHANG, Jian YUAN. Analysis of the influence of urbanization process on the temperature change in Liaoning province based on the OMR method [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2020, 36(4): 28-35.
[2]	Yan-juan YANG,Jing-fu CAO,Ming-cai LI,Yue-hao CHEN. Assessment on effects of climate change on heating and cooling energy consumptions of office buildings in the representative cities of North China [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2020, 36(4): 95-103.
[3]	Yue-hao CHEN,Mei-ling SUN,Jing-fu CAO,Ming-cai LI,Rui-xue ZHANG,Fan-chao MENG. Effects of climate change on cooling and heating energy consumption of buildings with different energy-saving levels in Tianjin [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2020, 36(3): 98-105.
[4]	Ying-tan YU,Shou-peng WANG,Lin LIU,Fang-fang XING,Chao-xing ZHANG,Da ZHONG,Wen-bo ZHAO,Jian WANG. Health assessment of water ecosystem in Benxi urban section of Taizi River [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2020, 36(1): 89-95.
[5]	Li-ping YANG,Cun-hou ZHANG,Hai-yan DAI,Di-bo LV,Jun HAN. Effects of climate change on phenophase of woody plants at the northern foot of Yinshan Mountain [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2020, 36(1): 102-107.
[6]	DUAN Li-yao, XIONG Ming-ming, LI Da-ming, LIU Xun-ping, WANG Jing, LI Pei-yan. Assessment of local debris flow disaster in Tianjin based on AHP method [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(6): 109-116.
[7]	HOU Yi-ling, XU Han-qing, YANG Xuan, ZHAO Chun-yu. The study case of NorESM1-M on the estimation of spring maize climate potential productivity in northeast China in 2050s [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(4): 100-105.
[8]	WU Jian-guo, XU Tian-ying. Effects of climate change on emission rate of dust of grassland soil by wind erosion in Bashang area,Hebei province [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(3): 68-78.
[9]	SUN Feng-hua, LI Li-guang, YUAN Jian, LIU Ming-yan, XIE Yan-bing, HU Wei. The experimental analysis on the response of the annual average runoff to climate change in Liaohe river basin [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(6): 91-95.
[10]	WANG Yu-juan, LIU Xiao-yan, BAI Ai-juan, QI Dong-lin, XIAO Hong-bin, OU Jian-fang. Variation of characteristics of an extreme snowfall index over Sanjiangyuan region from 1961 to 2017 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(6): 108-115.
[11]	YANG Xue-yan; ZHANG Li; XI Zhu-xiang; LIU Yu-xi; XU Shi-qi;ZHANG Chen-chen. Characteristics of sand-dust events and their relationship with atmospheric circulation in spring in Northeast China [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(4): 75-83.
[12]	CHENG Zhao-jin, CHEN Lei, XU Shu-mi. Analysis of suitable sowing period of winter wheat in Rizhao area under climate background [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(3): 93-98.
[13]	CHEN Kai-qi, ZHANG Xin-yue, LI Jia-yun, QU Shu-lin, FENG Kai-yue, LENG Wen-nan, ZHANG Wen-yu. Characteristics of climate change from 1951 to 2014 in Dandong [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2016, 32(3): 61-70.
[14]	ZHAO Zong-ci,LUO Yong,WANG Shao-wu,HUANG Jian-bin. Science issues on global warming [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2015, 31(1): 1-5.
[15]	YANG Bao-gang, Qing Ji-ming,ZHANG Tian-yu,XIE Shi-rong,MA Wen-jie. Characteristics of precipitation change from 1961 to 2011 in southeast Chongqing [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2014, 30(3): 46-51.

Assessment of urban comprehensive adaptability to climate change: a case study of Chaoyang

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 6

References 22

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 10