基于蒙特卡罗方法的广州港航行风险评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2021.03.018

Abstract

Abstract:

To obtain the characteristics of navigation risk of Guangzhou port at different visibility levels, the qualitative navigation risks of Guangzhou port under different visibility were quantified, to enhance the risk control ability of navigation accidents and improve the resources utilization rate of Guangzhou port.By analyzing the frequency of ship accidents and the severity of the consequences under different visibility, the Monte Carlo simulation of the accident data under three levels of visibility was carried out after the probability statistics of the two, which effectively increased the navigation accidents samples of Guangzhou port.The simulation results under three levels of visibility were obtained, and then the risk distribution characteristics of visibility within 0 and 12 km were acquired.The results show that the probability distribution model based on the Monte Carlo simulation method can effectively solve the problem of small samples of navigation risk, and the risk result is reliable.The risk is lowest at poor visibility (Vis ≤ 5 km), followed by good visibility (Vis ≥ 10 km).When it is restricted (5 km <Vis < 10 km), the risk is approximately 1.7-2.4 times of the other two cases.It can be seen that this method can well assess the navigation risk of Guangzhou port with visibility within 0-12 km, and provide a reference for delineating risk level standards.

Key words: Visibility, Monte Carlo, Risk assessment, Probability distribution

CLC Number:

Jing ZHANG,Zhi-jian ZHANG,Xin-yu ZHOU. Navigation risk assessment of Guangzhou port based on Monte Carlo method[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2021, 37(3): 132-138.

Figures/Tables 7

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References 22

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能见度	Beta分布				Gamma分布
能见度	μ(10^-5)	σ(10^-5)	α	β	μ	σ	α	β
不良	2.287	1.249	3.353	146600	8.653	0.801	116.699	13.487
受限	7.076	2.373	8.891	125650	6.455	0.915	49.761	7.709
良好	5.540	2.055	7.268	131185	3.704	0.803	21.273	5.744

统计特征	原始数据			MC仿真
统计特征	不良	受限	良好	不良	受限	良好
P均值	2.287×10^-5	7.076×10^-5	5.540×10^-5	2.753×10^-5	7.228×10^-5	5.83×10^-5
C均值	8.653	6.455	3.704	7.046	5.137	3.615
R均值	2.06×10^-4	4.932×10^-4	2.559×10^-4	1.92×10^-4	4.584×10^-4	2.647×10^-4
标准差	7.86×10^-5	5.891×10^-4	1.366×10^-4	7.197×10^-5	5.137×10^-4	1.278×10^-4
v系数	0.381	1.195	0.534	0.375	1.121	0.483

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Navigation risk assessment of Guangzhou port based on Monte Carlo method

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