基于频率匹配法的江西省ECMWF降水预报订正研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2022.02.002

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the precipitation forecast data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and precipitation observations at 93 meteorological stations in Jiangxi province from 2016 to 2019, we analyzed the rainfall frequency using four statistical methods and conducted the correcting test (without zone division) on precipitation forecast based on a frequency matching method.In addition, we also conducted correcting test on precipitation during flood seasons over different zones according to the climatic characteristics of a rainstorm in Jiangxi province and analyzed some typical heavy precipitation events.The results show that the frequency matching method reduces the false alarm rate of light rain and the missing alarm rate of heavy rain and rainstorm, leading to obvious improvement in the forecast technique.Among the four statistical methods for a precipitation frequency, the quasi-symmetric sliding average method performs the best.The zone-division tests make a better correction than the tests without zone division, and they have better correction capability in the modelling precipitation prediction using positive techniques than that without using techniques.For the rainstorm prediction with poor (Test Sore, TS=0), normal (0 < TS < 0.2), and good (TS ≥ 0.2) forecast levels, their improvement probabilities using zone-division tests are 40.8%, 89.1%, and 66.7%, respectively.The predicted rainfall areas after using zone-division correction based on the frequency matching method are closer to the observation, however, the locations of the heavy rainfall can not be improved.The correction method has a better (poor) performance for the cases with the shape and location of predicted heavy precipitation close to (having a large deviation from) the real situation.

Key words: Frequency matching method, Deviation correction, Precipitation forecast, Heavy precipitation

CLC Number:

P457.6

Hui-meng BAO,Da-feng GUO,Wei LI. Correction tests of ECMWF modeling quantitative precipitation using frequency matching method in Jiangxi provice[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2022, 38(2): 12-20.

Figures/Tables 9

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实况/预报	有	无
有	a	c
无	b	d

订正效果	TS=0	0 < TS < 0.2	0.2≤TS≤1	总时次
TS_EC＞TS_HD1F(差)	0	6	9	15
TS_EC=TS_HD1F(相当)	129	0	0	129
TS_EC＜TS_HD1F(好)	89	49	17	155
总时次	218	55	26	299

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Correction tests of ECMWF modeling quantitative precipitation using frequency matching method in Jiangxi provice

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