天津地区雷电流幅值及累积概率分布特征

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2022.03.016

Abstract

Abstract:

To reveal the characteristics of lightning current amplitude in Tianjin, ADTD lightning location data from 2008 to 2018 were used to study the characteristics of temporal variations and cumulative probabilities of lightning current amplitudes.The results show that the lightning flashes add up to 106 474 over Tianjin during the 11 years, with the ratio of negative flashes of 89.26%, much higher than that of positive flashes.The amplitudes of lightning current are mainly concentrated in 2-100 kA, accounting for 97.76% of the total number of lightning.There are fewer lightning times in the range of 160-200 kA, and the average positive flash current intensity is significantly greater than the negative flash current intensity.Lightning current intensity appears significant seasonal characteristics.The positive lightning current intensity has a bimodal distribution, whereas the negative lightning current intensity is relatively uniform.The positive lightning current appears more frequently in spring, followed by fall.The negative flashing appears frequently in summer whereas flashing is less active in winter which most appears as positive flashing.When the lightning current is higher than 25 kA, the cumulative probability of positive flash current amplitude is significantly higher than that of a negative one, and when the lightning current is lower than 25 kA, the cumulative probability of negative flash current amplitude is higher than that of a positive one.The cumulative probability distribution of the negative flash current amplitude is closer to the total, with significant differences from the cumulative probability distribution of the positive flash current amplitude.The cumulative probability distribution of the total lightning current is mainly affected by the negative flash.Through comparison, it is found that the cumulative probability distribution function recommended by the IEEE working group (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) can objectively reflect the probability distribution characteristics of lightning current amplitude in Tianjin, especially when the lightning current amplitude is in the range of 25-55 kA, and the cumulative probability is the same as the recommended formula.The cumulative probability formula of lightning current amplitude in the Tianjin area is tried to be used in the lightning disaster risk assessment, which can provide an effective reference for accurately determining the value of the lightning disaster risk assessment parameter (P_B) and accurately calculating the loss risk of lightning strikes.

Key words: Lightning current amplitude, Cumulative probability, Median current

CLC Number:

P427.32⁺1

Nan-nan SONG,Yong LIU,Xia LI,Hua-ning LI,Meng LI,Feng YIN. Distributions of lightning current amplitude and cumulative probability in the Tianjin area[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2022, 38(3): 137-143.

Figures/Tables 12

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年份	极性	强度/kA
年份	极性	(2-20]	(20-40]	(40-60]	(60-80]	(80-100]	(100-120]	(120-140]	(140-160]	(160-180]	(180-200]	合计
2008	正	12	83	65	51	26	20	14	3	10	3	287
2008	负	399	7532	2825	631	195	78	43	20	15	6	11744
2009	正	12	239	288	147	81	54	37	17	10	4	889
2009	负	921	11574	2706	560	143	54	27	17	14	16	16032
2010	正	0	103	105	54	38	18	5	8	3	3	337
2010	负	434	5495	1358	333	82	40	25	15	7	4	7793
2011	正	17	394	388	221	116	64	33	24	23	13	1293
2011	负	973	10351	2545	438	139	70	58	34	24	20	14652
2012	正	6	348	341	173	91	45	29	38	12	10	1093
2012	负	611	8835	2341	459	143	61	29	19	5	2	12505
2013	正	3	259	277	202	104	48	30	10	6	3	942
2013	负	298	5746	1437	283	53	35	24	10	5	1	7892
2014	正	7	261	343	190	109	82	47	17	19	7	1082
2014	负	233	4205	863	180	28	17	5	2	1	0	5534
2015	正	1	300	430	307	198	118	72	42	22	8	1498
2015	负	125	2747	640	141	44	20	9	2	4	0	3732
2016	正	3	217	218	174	91	66	41	30	12	8	860
2016	负	224	3828	935	186	38	9	3	1	0	0	5224
2017	正	157	357	406	258	184	102	47	36	11	8	1566
2017	负	932	1005	141	39	19	4	4	0	0	0	2144
2018	正	715	338	226	135	79	37	23	20	11	4	1588
2018	负	2556	3949	941	237	60	27	10	4	2	1	7787
合计	正	933	2899	3087	1912	1117	654	378	245	139	71	11435
合计	负	7706	65267	16732	3487	944	415	237	124	77	50	95039

电流极性	P_IEEE	P_《规范》
正闪	0.9995	0.9638
负闪	0.9997	0.9893
总闪	0.9993	0.9696

极性	Levenberg-Marquardt法			“中值电流”法
极性	a	b	R²	a	b	R²
正闪	51.19	2.28	0.9995	51.30	3.11	0.9989
负闪	31.08	4.68	0.9997	30.54	4.28	0.9995
总闪	32.30	4.04	0.9993	31.57	3.78	0.9992

雷电防护系统(LPS)类型	P_B
无保护	1
Ⅳ	0.2
Ⅲ	0.1
Ⅱ	0.05
Ⅰ	0.02

累积概率/(%)	5	10	20	50	80
电流值/kA	67.05	55.56	45.54	32.30	22.90

Distributions of lightning current amplitude and cumulative probability in the Tianjin area

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