基于4种高分辨率模式的辽宁省雷达回波预报邻域检验结果对比

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2022.05.003

Abstract

Abstract:

We selected 20 cases of two types of weather processes with different precipitation properties in Liaoning province from June to September in 2017 and 2018.These cases are used to evaluate the forecast capabilities of the meso- and small-scale systems in Liaoning province with the East China Model, the North China Model, the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES)_3km Model, and the Northeast China Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, based on the Fraction Skill Score (FSS) in the fuzzy test neighborhood method.The results showed that for the regional precipitation process and local precipitation process, the smaller the radar echo intensity is, the larger the neighborhood radius is, and the better the prediction skill of the high-resolution model is.When the radar echo is greater than 30 dBz, the FSS scores of the radar echo prediction for localized precipitation are higher in all high-resolution models.When the neighborhood radius is 3 km, the forecasting skills of the North China Model for all-level radar echo during regional precipitation are better than other models, with a maximum FSS difference being 0.031.In the process of localized precipitation, the East China Model performs better, with a maximum FSS score of 0.127, indicating that the East China Model has a stronger capability to predict small and medium-scale convective systems.For the local precipitation process, among the forecast periods between 08:00 and 23:00 in the Northeast China WRF_3km model, the forecast performs better in the "middle" period than the "beginning and ending" period, with their maximum FSS difference of 0.121.

Key words: Model verification, Radar echo forecast, Neighborhood method, Fraction Skill Score (FSS)

CLC Number:

P456.7

Jing LIU, Chuan-lei CHEN, Ying WANG, Kui-zhi CAI, Chuan REN, Wei DONG. Comparison of neighborhood verification of radar echo forecast in Liaoning province using four high-resolution models[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2022, 38(5): 25-33.

Figures/Tables 7

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References 24

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降水类型	雷达回波特点	影响区域
区域性降水	结构松散，大部分雷达回波小于45 dBz，回波分布范围广	覆盖范围≥3个地市
局地性降水	结构紧凑，存在大于45 dBz的雷达回波，回波分布范围小	覆盖范围≥1~2个地市

序号	区域性降水时间	局地性降水时间
1	2017-07-22	2017-06-19
2	2017-08-27	2017-07-09
3	2017-08-15	2017-07-13
4	2017-08-24	2017-07-14
5	2017-09-07	2017-09-10
6	2018-07-08	2018-06-17
7	2018-08-14	2018-07-09
8	2018-08-18	2018-08-13
9	2018-08-23	2018-08-20
10	2018-09-15	2018-09-02

模式名称	区域	空间分辨率	时间分辨率	范围	调整后范围
华东模式	华东区域	0.03°×0.03°	逐小时	5°~60°N 50°~160°E	37°~46°N 115°~127°E
华北模式	华北区域	0.03°×0.03°	逐小时	33°~48°N 104°~124°E	37°~46°N 115°~127°E
GRAPES_3km	全国重点区域	0.03°×0.03°	逐小时	10°~60°N 70°~145°E	37°~46°N 115°~127°E
睿图东北	东北地区	0.03°×0.03°	逐小时	37°~54°N 112°~135°E	37°~46°N 115°~127°E

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Comparison of neighborhood verification of radar echo forecast in Liaoning province using four high-resolution models

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