1982—2022年中国东北地区夏季降水量MODES数据产品预报结果评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2025.02.002

Abstract

Abstract: This study evaluates the forecast performance of summer precipitation in Northeast China from four MODES model data products,comprehensive trend anomaly test score (Ps),anomaly sign consistency rate (Pc),anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC),and temporal correlation coefficient (TCC).The spatial distribution of anomalies between predicted and observed values from each model was analyzed.The results show that MODES data products performed well in predicting anomalous trends of summer precipitation in Northeast China.MODESv2_NCC had the highest number of stations with statistically significant positive correlations between predicted and observed summer precipitation,mainly in the Songhua River and Liao River basins,and outperformed other models.The average regional Ps and Pc for all models were 63.0 points and 50.0%,respectively,with MODESv2_ECMWF achieving the best performance (average Ps:66.4 points,Pc:51.8%).All models performed better in forecasting precipitation deficits than surpluses,with MODESv2_NCC,MODESv2_JMA,and MODESv2_NCEP showing good performance for below-normal summer precipitation forecasts in the southern region of the Songliao Basin.

Key words: Comprehensive evaluation score, Precipitation anomaly, Precipitation forecast, Songliao Basin

CLC Number:

P457.6

QU Meihui, TU Gang, LIU Changzheng, LI Shangfeng, LI Yupeng, LU Zengxin, REN Hang, ZHAO Shuhong. Evaluation of MODES data products for summer precipitation forecasts in Northeast China during 1982-2022[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2025, 41(2): 11-19.

References

[1] 曲美慧,涂钢,冯喜媛.1961—2019年东北地区作物生长不同阶段极端干期时空分布特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2022,31(2):242-251.
[2] 邹立尧,丁一汇.1961—2005年东北暴雨气候特征分析[J].高原气象,2010,29(5) 1314-1321.
[3] 任宏昌,左金清,李维京.1998年和2016年北大西洋海温异常对中国夏季降水影响的数值模拟研究[J].气象学报,2017,75(6):877-893.
[4] 赵俊虎,熊开国,陈丽娟.东北夏季降水预测技巧偏低的原因探讨[J].大气科学,2020,44(5):913-934.
[5] 丁婷,陈丽娟,崔大海.东北夏季降水的年代际特征及环流变化[J].高原气象,2015,34(1):220-229.
[6] 贾小龙,王谦谦.东北地区汛期降水异常的大气环流特征分析[J].高原气象,2006,25(2):309-318.
[7] 翟晴飞,孙凤华,敖雪,等.基于BCC-CSM2-MR模式CMIP6试验的辽河流域气温降水模拟与预估[J].气象与环境学报,2022,38(4):27-36.
[8] 李辑,王小桃,李菲,等.区域气候模式RegCM_NCC在东北地区的应用研究[J].气象与环境学报,2010,26(3):1-6.
[9] 李永生,段春锋,王莹.多模式对东北地区月降水预测性能对比评估[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(5):61-66.
[10] 崔妍,周晓宇,赵春雨,等.5个IPCC AR4全球气候模式对东北三省降水模拟与预估[J].气象与环境学报,2014,30(4):34-41.
[11] 王涛,王乙舒,崔妍,等.气候模式对东北三省降水模拟能力评估及预估[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(5):52-60.
[12] 郭渠,刘向文,吴统文,等.基于BCC_CSM模式的中国东部夏季降水预测检验及订正[J].大气科学,2017,41(1):71-90.
[13] 焦敏,李辑,于亚鑫,等.BCC_CSM1.1(m)模式对初夏东北冷涡的模拟及应用[J].气象与环境学报,2019,35(4):55-62.
[14] 程智,杨玮,徐敏,等.JMA/MRI-CPS2模式对东亚夏季风系统预测能力的评估[J].气象,2017,43(4):434-442.
[15] 李菲,王永光,王小桃,等.基于DERF 2.0产品东北地区降尺度气温预测模型研究[J].气象与环境学报,2017,33(4):108-112.
[16] 班晋,王波,李永生,等.基于NCEP_CFSv2模式的黑龙江省夏季降水预测研究[J].气象与环境学报,2019,35(6):21-27.
[17] Ma J H,Sun J Q. New statistical prediction scheme for monthly precipitation variability in the rainy season over northeastern China[J].International Journal of Climatology,2021,41(13):5805-5819.
[18] Ma J H,Sun J Q,Liu C Z. A hybrid statistical-dynamical prediction scheme for summer monthly precipitation over Northeast China[J]. Meteorological Applications,2022,29(2):e2057.
[19] 舒建川,蒋兴文,黄小梅,等.中国西南夏季降水预测的统计降尺度建模分析[J].高原气象,2019,38(2):349-358.
[20] 刘长征,杜良敏,柯宗建,等.国家气候中心多模式解释应用集成预测[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(6):677-685.
[21] 刘长征,江远安,毛炜峄,等.新疆夏季降水和冬季气温预测方法及效果评估[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(2):1-8
[22] 白慧,高辉,刘长征,等.MODES系统对贵州月气温、降水预测初步评估[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(5):58-63.
[23] 曲美慧,涂钢,刘洋,等.JL-NZCv1.0短期气候预测系统对吉林省春、夏季气温、降水预测的初步检验评估[J].气象灾害防御,2022,29(1):16-21.
[24] 吴捷,任宏利,张帅,等.BCC二代气候系统模式的季节预测评估和可预报性分析[J].大气科学,2017,41(6):1300-1315.
[25] 孟鑫,张瑜,赵婷婷,等.1961—2019年中国东北地区夏季降水特征及其与前期ENSO的关系[J].气象与环境学报,2023,39(4):103-113.

Evaluation of MODES data products for summer precipitation forecasts in Northeast China during 1982-2022

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 13

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 10

[1]	YAO Kai, ZHU Xiaotong, CHEN Changsheng, QIN Yulin, ZHOU Dongxue, PIAO Meihua. Spatial verification of CMA models on precipitation forecast for typhoon “Meihua” in Northeast China [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2025, 41(1): 35-42.
[2]	Yue WANG,Chenghan LIU,Yunxia DUAN,Hongyu SUN,Jinglin CUI,Yumeng SU,Peiyu CHEN,Weilong BAN. Verification technology of multi-model precipitation forecast in Liaoning province in summer 2020 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(6): 37-43.
[3]	Zheng-hua TAN, Zhong-yan LU, Hai-feng LIN, An-qi NIE, Fang-da TENG. Verification for precipitation forecasted by NWP models in Liaoning province during the summer of 2020 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(1): 10-16.
[4]	Hui-meng BAO,Da-feng GUO,Wei LI. Correction tests of ECMWF modeling quantitative precipitation using frequency matching method in Jiangxi provice [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2022, 38(2): 12-20.
[5]	Tian-yu LI, Li ZHANG, Dong-xue FU, Xiao-fan LI, Ning LIU. Cause analysis of enhanced precipitation anomaly in December of 2019 in Jilin province [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2021, 37(6): 20-26.
[6]	An-qi NIE,De-qin LI,Fang-da TENG,Jing-long LU,Dang WANG. Verification of multi-model precipitation forecast in Liaoning province in summer and research on clear or rain forecast method [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2020, 36(5): 10-17.
[7]	LIANG Han, CHEN Chuan-lei, NIE An-qi, TIAN Li, HE Hui, HUANG Ge. Validation on numerical forecast products during the “8.16” severe torrential rain in Liaoning province [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2016, 32(6): 1-9.
[8]	XIAO Ming-jing,SHENG Chun-yan,SHI Chun-ling,SUI Ming,RONG Yan-min. Precipitation verification of multiple models during flood season of 2010 in Shandong province [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2013, 29(2): 27-33.
[9]	LI Hui,ZHOU Shun-wu,WANGYa-fei. A review on relationship between subtropical high anomaly over West Pacific and summer precipitation in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2013, 29(1): 93-102.
[10]	YANG Sen，CHEN Li-qiang，ZHOU Xiao-shan. Application of an ensemble method of quantitative precipitation forecasting [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2012, 28(5): 14-.
[11]	ZHANG Ning-na, HUANG Ge, WU Man-li, LIANG Han, SHENG Yong, LIU Gui-ying. Contrastive verification of three numerical prediction products in the northeast of China in 2010 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2012, 28(2): 28-33.
[12]	WU Man-li ;LIANG Han ;WANG Ying ;SHEN Yu-min. Contrast tests of precipitation products between T213 and Germany numerical prediction in 2008 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2009, 25(4): 22-26.
[13]	CUI Jin;ZHOU Xiao-shan ;ZHANG Ai-zhong; YAN Qi; HUANG Ge ;ZHANG Wei. Application of synoptic verification in autumn and winter precipitation forecast of NWP model in Northeast China [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2009, 25(4): 17-21.