基于ETCCDI指数的京津冀地区极端气候事件特征及影响分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.03.012

Abstract

Abstract:

Utilizing the daily temperature and precipitation data of 175 meteorological stations in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1961 to 2020, the spatiotemporal variations of extreme temperature and precipitation events were analyzed using 9 typical extreme indices and methods of linear trend and Sen's mutation. An impact evaluation index system was constructed based on these extreme indices to quantify the local extreme climate impacts for the period of 2003-2019. The results indicate that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region experienced a significant increase in extreme warm events and a significant decrease in extreme cold events from 1961 to 2020. Since the late 1990s, the warming rate has accelerated, with the decrease in cold events occurring earlier than the increase in warm events. Compared to Tianjin and Hebei, Beijing shows greater increase in extreme high temperatures and the warm event frequency, as well as smaller increase in extreme low temperatures and decrease in cold events. It implies the status of increasingly stronger warm events and less weak cold events in Beijing. The extreme precipitation indices in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region show a slight decreasing trend with notable decadal variability. Beijing and Hebei have experienced an increase in the precipitation maxima, suggesting an enhancement in extremely strong precipitation events in these areas. The year of 2020 shows slightly higher-than-normal values on the annual maximum temperature (TXx), warm days (TX90p), and warm spell duration index (WSDI), while lower-than-normal values for the annual minimum temperature (TNn), cold nights (TN10p), cold spell duration index (CSDI), and precipitation indices. Several stations in Tianjin have recorded the lowest CSDI and precipitation indices since 1961. It indicates that the extreme temperatures in 2020 are close to normal, while extreme precipitation in Tianjin is at a minimum state. Besides, the overall impacts of extreme events have increased since 2003. Although Beijing experiences lower climate disaster damage intensity compared to Hebei, it shows higher intensity of extreme weather events.

Key words: Temperature extremes, Precipitation extremes, Impact assessment

CLC Number:

P466

Yang SONG,Ji WANG,Puyu FENG,Liping XU,Feng WANG,Wei ZHANG,Xiru TANG,Bin WANG. Characteristics and impact analysis of extreme climate events in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on ETCCDI indices[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2024, 40(3): 97-105.

Figures/Tables 7

Table 1

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Fig.1

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References 28

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代码	名称	定义	单位
TXx	年最高温	年内日最高气温的最大值	℃
TX90p	暖昼日数	最高气温＞90%分位值的日数	d
WSDI	持续暖日日数	连续6 d最高气温＞90%分位值日数	d
TNn	年最低温	年内日最低气温的最小值	℃
TN10p	冷夜日数	最低气温＜10%分位值的日数	d
CSDI	持续冷日日数	连续6 d最低气温＜10%分位值日数	d
R99p	极强降水总量	日降水量＞99%分位值的年累计降水量	mm
Rx1day	最大日降水量	年内最大日降水量	mm
R25	大雨日数	年内日降水量≥25 mm的总日数	d

目标层	准则层	指标层	单位
S1极端事件强度	C1高温	A1 TXx	℃
		A2 TX90p	d
		A3 WSDI	d
	C2低温	A4 TNn	℃
		A5 TN10p	d
		A6 CSDI	d
	C3暴雨	A7 R99p	mm
		A8 R25	d
		A9 Rx1day	mm
S2气候灾害损失强度	C4经济损失	A10直接经济损失	亿元·10⁴ km²
	C5人员损失	A11受灾人口	万人次·10⁴ km²
	C5人员损失	A12死亡人口 (含失踪人口)	人·10⁴ km²
	C6作物损失	A13农作物受灾面积	hm²/km²

目标层	ω₁	准则层	ω₂	指标层	ω₃	ω
		C1	0.2647	A1	0.5126	0.0786
				A2	0.2981	0.0457
				A3	0.1893	0.0290
S1	0.5794	C2	0.2987	A4	0.5126	0.0887
				A5	0.2981	0.0516
				A6	0.1893	0.0328
		C3	0.4366	A7	0.3581	0.0905
				A8	0.1140	0.0288
				A9	0.5279	0.1335
		C4	0.3333	A10	1.0000	0.1402
S2	0.4206	C5	0.3333	A11	0.2500	0.0350
				A12	0.7500	0.1051
		C6	0.3333	A13	1.0000	0.1402

要素	地点	指标	线性斜率	均值	突变年份	突变前		突变后
要素	地点	指标	线性斜率	均值	突变年份	斜率	均值	斜率	均值
		TXx	0.03	36.89	1998^**	-0.04^*	36.24	-0.06	38.06
	北京	TX90	0.20^**	12.62	1996^**	0.04	9.53	0.09	17.38
		WSDI	0.12^**	4.14	1996^**	0.00	1.14	0.16	8.76
		TXx	0.01	37.03	1996^*	-0.06^**	36.61	-0.03	37.68
极端高温	天津	TX90	0.16^**	12.08	1996^**	0.09	9.62	-0.08	15.85
		WSDI	0.09^**	3.26	1996^**	0.00	0.88	0.10	6.91
		TXx	0.01	37.77	1996	-0.03	37.46	-0.02	38.23
	河北	TX90	0.07^**	11.60	1996^**	-0.08	10.03	-0.05	14.02
		WSDI	0.06^**	3.15	1996^**	-0.01	1.30	-0.06	6.01
极端低温		TNn	0.03^*	-16.63	1987^*	-0.04	-17.42	-0.02	-15.97
	北京	TN10p	-0.15^**	10.15	1987^**	0.01	13.45	-0.05	7.36
		CSDI	-0.01	1.86	1971	0.56^*	3.69	0.00	1.41
		TNn	0.08^**	-14.72	1987^**	-0.03	-16.45	-0.01	-13.25
	天津	TN10p	-0.24^**	10.56	1993^**	-0.18^*	14.16	-0.14^**	6.02
		CSDI	-0.06^**	2.43	1976^**	-0.19	6.32	0.00^*	0.92
		TNn	0.07^**	-17.21	1987^**	0.02	-18.71	0.00	-15.93
	河北	TN10p	-0.21^**	9.69	1987^**	-0.07	13.81	-0.11^**	6.20
		CSDI	-0.04^**	2.21	1971^**	0.62	5.82	-0.01	1.33
		R99p	-0.39	50.30	1964	30.05	103.04	-0.16	45.59
	北京	R25	-0.01	5.96	1996	0.01	6.40	0.08^*	5.28
		RX1day	-0.28^*	78.96	1964	8.35	102.00	-0.16	76.91
极端降水		R99p	-0.42	53.23	1988	1.16	70.90	0.45	37.21
	天津	R25	-0.03	5.90	1996	0.01	6.41	0.02	5.11
		RX1day	-0.35	86.17	1988	0.62	96.39	0.42	76.91
		R99p	-0.35	46.31	1964	14.53	89.68	-0.25	42.44
	河北	R25	0.00	5.23	1996	0.02	5.46	0.06	4.87
		RX1day	-0.17	75.20	1964	0.09	78.51	0.27	70.11

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Characteristics and impact analysis of extreme climate events in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on ETCCDI indices

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