中国东北地区气温变化的模拟评估与未来情景预估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2021.01.005

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the RegCM4 (Regional Climate Model 4) regional climate model, CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) global climate model dataset and temperature observation data from 162 meteorological stations in Northeast China, the abilities of RegCM4 and CMIP5 to simulate temperature in Northeast China were evaluated using the deviation and correlation analyses.The future temperature changes under three emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 in Northeast China were estimated as well.The results show that both the regional and global models can better represent the spatiotemporal changes in air temperature.The simulation effects in winter and summer are better than those in autumn and spring.In terms of regional-scale information, the simulated values are smaller than the observed ones.The simulation results of the RegCM4 are significantly better than those of the CMIP5, and the simulated deviation cold is improved.In the future, the annual and seasonal temperatures in Northeast China will increase.The warming magnitude in the RCP8.5 scenario is most significant, followed by the RCP4.5, and RCP2.6 is the smallest.The warming effects in winter and autumn are larger than those in summer.Compared with the CMIP5 model, the RegCM4 model has a larger temperature increasing amplitude and more obvious interannual oscillation characteristics.In terms of space, the distribution patterns of short-, medium-, and late-of-term warming predicted by the regional and global models are consistent, showing a zonal distribution reducing from the north to the south, with the minimum amplitude of warming in Liaoning province, the high-value area locating in the Greater Khingan Mountains area of Heilongjiang province.Although the warming effect in the north is more obvious than that in the south, the temperature distribution in the northeast region will continue to be higher in the south than that in the north after warming.

Key words: RegCM4, CMIP5, Temperature, Simulation capability, Scenario projection

CLC Number:

P467

Xue AO,Chun-yu ZHAO,Yan CUI,Xiao-yu ZHOU,Qing-fei ZHAI,Li-du SHEN,Tao WANG. Evaluation and projection of temperature change in Northeast China[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2021, 37(1): 33-42.

Figures/Tables 7

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模式和观测	年	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
RegCM4	5.08(-0.69)	5.96(-1.05)	20.97(-0.6)	5.82(-0.74)	-11.76(0.61)
CMIP5	4.35(-1.42)	5.03(-1.98)	20.49(-1.08)	5.16(-1.4)	-13.24(-0.87)
OBS	5.77	7.01	21.57	6.56	-12.37

模式	2020—2035年					2046—2065年					2080—2098年
模式	年	春	夏	秋	冬	年	春	夏	秋	冬	年	春	夏	秋	冬
RegCM4 RCP2.6	1.3	1.31	1.1	1.32	1.48	1.37	1.36	1.19	1.44	1.56	1.51	1.38	1.38	1.6	1.67
RegCM4 RCP4.5	1.34	1.42	1.13	1.34	1.50	2.65	2.31	2.49	2.82	2.84	3.46	2.85	3.05	3.86	3.95
RegCM4 RCP8.5	1.43	1.45	1.24	1.47	1.56	3.32	3.1	3.06	3.53	3.62	5.5	4.91	5.12	5.76	6.31
CMIP5 RCP2.6	1.11	0.89	1.06	1.21	1.27	1.47	1.15	1.51	1.65	1.55	1.58	1.29	1.47	1.71	1.57
CMIP5 RCP4.5	1.13	0.93	1.09	1.22	1.29	2.05	1.75	2.01	2.23	2.21	2.54	2.08	2.44	2.76	2.84
CMIP5 RCP8.5	1.27	1.02	1.16	1.38	1.47	2.93	2.49	2.87	3.17	3.23	5.39	4.63	5.05	5.61	6.28

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Evaluation and projection of temperature change in Northeast China

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