2000—2020年宁夏植被净初级生产力时空变化及其驱动因子分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.013

Abstract

Abstract:

To clarify the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and driving factors of vegetation productivity in Ningxia since 2000, this study utilizes MODIS Net Primary Productivity (NPP) data (MOD17A3HGF), Sen′s slope, Mann-Kendall trend test, and Hurst index to investigate the changes in NPP from 2000 to 2020. Employing the geographical detector, the study examines the influence of ten factors including meteorological conditions, topography, and socio-economic aspects on the spatial differentiation of vegetation NPP in Ningxia. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the spatial distribution of vegetation NPP in Ningxia was high in the north and south and low in the middle, with an NPP growth rate of 52.8 gC·m·(10 a^-1), and significant increases observed in 91.4% of the region. The average Hurst index is 0.447, suggesting a weak anti-persistence in future NPP, indicating a slight decreasing trend. Meteorological conditions are identified as the primary factor influencing the spatial differentiation of vegetation NPP in Ningxia, while the impact of socio-economic factors is not significant.

Key words: Hurst index, Geographical detector, Meteorological conditions

CLC Number:

X171.1

Hui ZHAO,Menghua LI,Jianling YANG,Jianping LI,Yanping WANG,Yingjuan HAN,Haiying WU. Spatial and temporal variations of vegetation net primary productivity and its driving factors in Ningxia from 2000 to 2020[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2024, 40(4): 107-115.

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β	Z	变化趋势	β	Hurst	未来趋势
β＞0	Z＞2.58	极显著增大	β＞0	Hurst＞0.5	持续增大
	1.96＜Z≤2.58	显著增大		Hurst=0.5	无持续变化
	Z≤1.96	不显著增大		Hurst＜0.5	反持续增大
β=0	—	无变化	β=0	Hurst＞0.5	持续不变
β=0	—	无变化	β=0	Hurst≤0.5	无持续变化
β＜0	Z≤1.96	不显著减小	β＜0	Hurst＞0.5	持续减小
	1.96＜Z≤2.58	显著减小		Hurst=0.5	无持续变化
	Z＞2.58	极显著减小		Hurst＜0.5	反持续减小

交互作用	判断条件
非线性减弱	q(X₁∩X₂) < Min(q(X₁), q(X₂))
单因子非线性减弱	Min(q(X₁), q(X₁)) < q(X₁∩X₂) < Max(q(X₁), q(X₂))
双因子增强	q(X₁∩X₂)>Max(q(X₁), q(X₂))
独立	q(X₁∩X₂) = q(X₁)+q(X₂)
非线性增强	q(X₁∩X₂)>q(X₁)+q(X₂)

探测因子	年最低气温X₁	年最高气温X₂	年平均气温X₃	年降水X₄	年日照时数X₅	高程X₆	坡度X₇	GDP X₈	人口X₉	土地利用X₁₀
q值	0.392	0.486	0.475	0.533	0.150	0.408	0.052	0.432	0.332	0.134

年份	第一主导交互作用	第二主导交互作用	第三主导交互作用
2000年	年降水∩高程0.743	年最高气温∩高程0.697	年降水∩土地利用0.681
2005年	年降水∩土地利用0.808	年降水∩高程0.793	年日照时数∩土地利用0.755
2010年	年降水∩高程0.779	年降水∩土地利用0.761	年日照时数∩高程0.722
2015年	年降水∩高程0.830	年降水∩土地利用0.830	年降水∩坡度0.799
2020年	年降水∩高程0.748	年降水∩土地利用0.701	年最高气温∩高程0.697

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Spatial and temporal variations of vegetation net primary productivity and its driving factors in Ningxia from 2000 to 2020

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