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主办单位:中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号:ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号:CN 21-1531/P

Table of Content

    28 August 2024, Volume 40 Issue 4 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    Causes analysis of snowfall during different stages of a rare heavy snowstorm event in Liaoning province under the background of Northeast Cold Vortex
    Qi YAN,Zhenghua TAN,Yumeng SU,Yashu HUO,Shuang LI,Yibo SUN
    2024, 40 (4):  1-9.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.001
    Abstract ( 304 )   HTML ( 49 )   PDF (6111KB) ( 182 )   Save

    Utilizing conventional observations, intensified snowfall observations, wind profiler radars, microwave radiometers, and other multi-source monitoring data, as well as CMA-RA reanalysis data, a rare snowfall event in Liaoning province in November of 2021 was analyzed for its water vapor and thermodynamic characteristics and causes stage by stage. The results indicated that the strong development of the Northeast Cold Vortex (NCV) and ground cyclone, coupled with the interaction between northern and southern frontal zones, led to the southward transport of strong cold advection from western Jilin, forming a cold air cushion. The strong warm advection in front of the offshore cyclone ascended along this cold cushion, providing the large-scale circulation background for this snowfall event. The Yellow Sea and the East China Sea are the main moisture sources. During the heavy snowfall phase of this process, mid-level warm and moist air overlapped vertically with low-level returning cold and moist air, form a deep moist layer. Convectively unstable stratification existed in the lower troposphere below 850 hPa and near 700 hPa in central Liaoning province. Frontogenesis intensified along the inclined direction of the cold cushion between 925~700 hPa, at the same time horizontal wind field convergence below 925 hPa generated frontogenesis in the horizontal direction. The combination of frontogenetic dynamic lifting and ascending motion in front of the NCV resulted in strong upward motion from near-surface to approximately 5 km altitude. During the sustained weak snowfall phase, the intrusion of dry cold air and the weakening of moisture conditions, the weakened warm and moist air in the middle levels and dry and cold air in the lower levels overlapped vertically. Symmetric instability stratification persisted, and the influence of multiple short-wave troughs at the bottom of the NCV led to the continuous weakening of snowfall.

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    Causes analysis of extreme snowstorm and lightning in He'nan province in March of 2023
    Liman CUI,Xiujie GU,Le XI,Yachun ZHANG,Ziyue XUE
    2024, 40 (4):  10-18.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.002
    Abstract ( 144 )   HTML ( 15 )   PDF (4244KB) ( 127 )   Save

    Using automatic weather stations, dual-polarization radar, wind profile radar and ERA5 reanalysis data, the causes of an extreme snowstorm and lightning weather event that occurred in He'nan province on March 16, 2023, were analyzed. The results showed that the main weather systems responsible for this extreme snowstorm process were the trough, shear line, jet stream, and Northeast Cold Vortex(NCV). The cold vortex, maintained stably with the -39 ℃ cold center, permitted cold air to persistently move southward at its rear, forming a deep cold cushion below 850 hPa. Meanwhile, southwest warm and moist airflows ascended along the cold cushion in the middle and upper levels, forming a typical "north-south type" snowfall weather pattern in He'nan province. The heavy snowfall area overlapped the northern region where the total precipitable water was 20 mm and the 700 hPa strong convergence center. The topographical uplift of the central and western regions of He'nan further facilitated this extreme snowfall event. The joint effect of cold advection and secondary circulation caused a sudden drop in local temperature, leading to an earlier-than-expected phase transition, resulting in multisite snowfall or snow depth exceeding historical records. The correlation coefficient product from the dual-polarization radar provided an important reference for monitoring phase transitions. Below 850 hPa, the air temperature was consistently below 0 ℃, and the 2-meter temperature dropped to around 1 ℃, serving as forecasting indicators for snowfall. Convergent shear and frontal secondary circulation were favorable for elevated thunderstorms, with the height of the 20 dBz echo exceeding -20 ℃ level can serve as a critical indicator for the occurrence of thunderstorms.

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    Analysis of a dense fog event in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea in April of 2023
    Longsheng LIU, Hui WANG, Bin HUANG
    2024, 40 (4):  19-26.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.003
    Abstract ( 110 )   HTML ( 13 )   PDF (7172KB) ( 69 )   Save

    Using ERA5 reanalysis data, ground observation data from the China Meteorological Administration, and satellite remote sensing monitoring data, an analysis was conducted on a wide-area sea fog event accompanied by an extratropical cyclone entering the Yellow Sea and East China Sea from April 19 to 22, 2023. The results indicated that the sea fog primarily occurred in the western and northern parts of the cyclone that moves into the sea, with advection cooling fog in the Yellow Sea and frontal fog in the East China Sea. During the occurrence of the Yellow Sea fog, the temperature difference between air and sea ranged from 0 ℃ to 2 ℃, while in the East China Sea, the air temperature was lower than the sea temperature during the sea fog event. The formation of the Yellow Sea fog was mainly due to the warm and moist air from the south converging and then condensing on the cooler sea surface. In contrast, the East China Sea fog was frontal fog formed under the effect of weak cold air in the rear of the cyclone, providing the main moisture source for the occurrence and maintenance of this sea fog process. During the sea fog event, the cloud water content significantly increased in the vertical direction, and the fog development height formed by the south wind was greater than that formed by the north wind.

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    Articles
    Investigation and characteristic analysis of the multiple tornado disasters in Liaoning province on June 1, 2023
    Kanglong CAI,Yongyao MAI,Xiuyuan ZHANG,Zhicong HUANG,Yan CHEN
    2024, 40 (4):  27-36.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.004
    Abstract ( 76 )   HTML ( 6 )   PDF (5410KB) ( 50 )   Save

    Utilizing datasets of field disaster investigations, recorded videos, orthophoto maps, and satellite images, the study analyzed the intensity, path length, visual characteristics, and evolution of multiple tornadoes that occurred on June 1, 2023, in Fuxin, Faku, Kangping, and Kaiyuan of Liaoning province. The results indicated that the tornado in Fuxin is a moderate tornado (EF1) with a path length of approximately 3 km. The color changes of the funnel cloud reflect variations in the underlying surface and the tornado evolution. The twin tornadoes in Faku are both classified as weak (EF0) with path lengths of 0.8 km and 0.6 km, respectively. The Kangping tornado is also weak (EF0) with a path length of about 1.0 km, whereas the tornado in Kaiyuan is strong (EF2) with a path length of approximately 11.0 km. Both satellite and orthophoto images show clear evidence of tornado damages, and a nearly circular cycloidal mark is observed. The tornado radar products in Liaoning province only issue an alert for the Kaiyuan tornado, while the other tornadoes are lack of clear signatures in radar products.

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    Assessment and analysis of climate trend predictions for precipitation in May of 2022 in Jiangxi province
    Ya’nan LIU,Qiong WU,Yong LI
    2024, 40 (4):  37-45.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.005
    Abstract ( 94 )   HTML ( 8 )   PDF (4449KB) ( 55 )   Save

    Based on datasets from ground observations and NCEP reanalysis, the climate prediction derived from the dynamic model was evaluated towards the precipitation in Jiangxi province in May of 2022, using the Tibetan Plateau snow cover anomaly index and atmospheric circulation index. Additionally, the predictive signals and their applications were also analyzed. The results showed that the model prediction of "above-normal precipitation in southern Jiangxi province" is generally accurate, and the prediction of "a concentration period of precipitation in Jiangxi province, with some areas experiencing floods" matches the reality. The precipitation processes in May are predicted well, though the drought severity in northern and central areas is underestimated to some extent. Prediction at the early stage combines the impacts of several predictive signals, including the La Niña event, the excessive snow cover anomaly over Tibetan Plateau in the preceding winter, and the sea surface temperature changes in Indian Ocean, on the precipitation trend in May of 2022 for Jiangxi province. However, it underestimates the influence of La Niña on the whole area and overestimates the impact of the excessive snow cover anomaly over Tibetan Plateau on the northern area, resulting in certain prediction deviations.

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    Validation and evaluation of the SWC-WARMS model products for precipitation forecasts on the Xizang Plateau from 2017 to 2021
    Jiancan LUOBU,Lv JI,Lazhen BIANMA,Ciren YANGJI,Baima CIREN,Zhiwei HENG
    2024, 40 (4):  46-53.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.006
    Abstract ( 68 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (2219KB) ( 53 )   Save

    Using 24-hour precipitation data from 39 observation stations on the Xizang Plateau from 2017 to 2021, the SWC-WARMS model products of precipitation forecasts were evaluated according to the operational numerical prediction evaluation metrics. The results showed that precipitation on the Xizang Plateau is mainly concentrated in the warm season (rainfall period), with light rain as the dominant form. The annual averaged accuracy rate, hit rate, and success rate of the 24-hour cumulative precipitation forecast from the SWC-WARMS model are 78%, 83%, and 60%, respectively, indicating considerable prediction performance, which are however characterized by relatively high false alarm rate and bias. The averaged TS score for light rain and above during the warm season is up to 0.63, while the TS for moderate rain and above is relatively low. The false alarm rate and missing alarm rate increase with rising altitude differences. During the cold season (snowfall period), the number of precipitation days is fewer, with lower TS score and higher false alarm rate than those in the warm season. However, in certain regions, the TS for large-threshold snowfall forecasts reaches 0.30 in the SWC-WARMS model.

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    Analysis of spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation in Liaoning province from May to October during 2016-2021
    Ping LI, Chuanlei CHEN, Yu CHEN, Dan NIU, Shuo LIU, Anqi NIE, Shaoyong ZHANG
    2024, 40 (4):  54-63.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.007
    Abstract ( 130 )   HTML ( 18 )   PDF (4225KB) ( 116 )   Save

    Utilizing hourly high-density precipitation observation data from May to October during 2016-2021 in Liaoning province, this study analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation processes, short-term heavy precipitation events, and extreme short-term heavy precipitation events. The K-means clustering method was applied to classify the spatial distribution of cumulative precipitation hours during short-term heavy precipitation events in the flood season. The results indicated that short-term heavy precipitation events (hourly precipitation ≥20 mm) and extreme short-term heavy precipitation events (hourly precipitation≥99.9th percentile of historical precipitation at the station) are significantly influenced by topography. High-frequency areas of short-term heavy precipitation are primarily in the southeastern coastal regions of Liaoning province, the coastal plains and areas with higher elevation in western Liaoning province, and the windward slopes in southeastern Liaoning province. Precipitation during the flood season in Liaoning province is affected by monsoon circulation, exhibiting distinct seasonal variations. The maximum average precipitation and precipitation frequency occur in July and August, and mainly concentrate from afternoon to night. Considerable regional differences are found in the frequency of short-term heavy precipitation events across Liaoning province, while the regional differences in extreme short-term heavy precipitation events are relatively minor.

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    Articles
    Analysis of the precipitation patterns and causes of anomalies in crop growing season in the Songhua River Basin from 1961 to 2020
    Ying WANG,Yufan WANG,Yongqing XU,Jiaying ZHAO,Jin BAN,Yongsheng LI
    2024, 40 (4):  64-71.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.008
    Abstract ( 57 )   HTML ( 5 )   PDF (4096KB) ( 50 )   Save

    Daily precipitation observational data from 95 stations in the Songhua River Basin from May to September during 1961-2020, monthly JRA-55 reanalysis data, and sea surface temperature data were utilized to analyze the main precipitation patterns and causes of anomalies in crop growing season in this region, and to explore its mechanism and precursor signals. The results showed that there are primarily two spatial modes of precipitation during the crop growing season in the Songhua River Basin, i.e. the basin-wide mode and the east-west opposite mode. The basin-wide mode is dominant in the 1980s and 1990s, while the east-west opposite mode prevails in the first decade of the 21st century. In recent years, the basin-wide mode has been predominant. The basin-wide precipitation mode is influenced by both mid-high latitude and low latitude systems, while the east-west opposite precipitation mode is mainly affected by the mid-high latitude circulation over Eurasia. The circulation systems influencing precipitation in the Songhua River Basin are primarily located in the Baikal Lake and Okhotsk Sea regions. For the basin-wide precipitation mode, the water vapor budget shows input from the western boundary and output from the eastern boundary. In the years of above-normal precipitation, both southern and northern boundaries experience water vapor input, while during below-average periods, water vapor input is found from the northern boundary and output from the southern boundary. For the east-west opposite precipitation mode, the water vapor budget exhibits input from one boundary and output from the other for both the south-north and east-west boundaries.

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    Analysis of extreme precipitation and temperature characteristics in Liaoning province from 1991 to 2021 based on ETCCDI indices
    Wanying ZHANG,Xiubo SUN,Yi LIN,Jian SONG,Bing LI,Mengmeng ZHANG,Jianing LI,Jiaxin LV
    2024, 40 (4):  72-79.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.009
    Abstract ( 78 )   HTML ( 9 )   PDF (2375KB) ( 50 )   Save

    Daily temperature and precipitation data from 60 stations in Liaoning province from 1991 to 2021 were used to calculate 26 extreme climate indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The changes in extreme climate events over the past 30 years and the characteristics of extreme precipitation and temperature in 2021 in Liaoning province were analyzed. The results showed that the average intensity of single extreme cold (warm) events in Liaoning province has increased, but their frequency has decreased, and the frequency of persistent extreme events has also decreased. The number of low-temperature days has decreased. The length of the growing season has increased, and the indices of warm nights and summer days have increased. Extreme precipitation amounts showed significant decadal variations from decrease to increase. In 2021, both extreme cold and warm events in Liaoning province were colder than normal, with extreme cold events being consistently colder across the province, while warm events were colder in western Liaoning province and warmer in the east. The growing season in 2021 was longer than in previous years. Total precipitation and extreme precipitation events were both above average, with prolonged wet periods and shortened dry spells.

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    Spatial-temporal variation of late spring cold events in Chongqing from 1991 to 2020 and analysis of atmospheric circulation background in abnormal years
    Hongmin CHI,Yonghua LI,Qu GUO,Yong WANG,Fen ZHANG,Yulian MA
    2024, 40 (4):  80-89.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.010
    Abstract ( 99 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (4559KB) ( 74 )   Save

    Daily temperature data from 34 observation stations in Chongqing from 1991 to 2020, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, NOAA sea surface temperature data, and 130 atmospheric circulation parameters from the National Climate Center were utilized. Trend analysis and empirical orthogonal function decomposition methods were employed to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of late spring cold events in Chongqing, the atmospheric circulation and the preceding sea temperature features in anomalous years. The results indicated that the occurrence of late spring cold events in Chongqing exhibits significant spatial and temporal differences. The period 2001-2010 had the fewest occurrences but the strongest intensity. The southwestern part of Chongqing experienced the most frequent and the strongest late spring cold events. The primary spatial pattern of change in late spring cold event occurrences is characterized by a consistent anomaly distribution. In spring, the Ural high-pressure ridge is abnormally enhanced, while the 500 hPa geopotential height field is anomalously low from the Black Sea to Xinjiang, China, the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, and most of China. The negative 700 hPa temperature anomaly is observed from the Ural Mountains to most of China. The westerly circulation from the Black Sea to Siberia is weakened, and the meridional circulation in the mid-high latitudes is significantly enhanced, facilitating the southward movement of cold air. This constitutes the main atmospheric circulation background for the occurrence of late spring cold event in Chongqing. Additionally, warmer (colder) sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific Warm Pool and the Bay of Bengal during the preceding winter are correlated with fewer (more) occurrences of late spring cold events in Chongqing.

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    Analysis of ozone concentration variations and their relationships with meteorological factors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2013 to 2020
    Yannan HU,Wenxing LI,Zhi ZHANG,Yayin JIAO
    2024, 40 (4):  90-99.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.011
    Abstract ( 99 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (4040KB) ( 95 )   Save

    Using the daily maximum 8-hour moving average values of near-surface ozone concentration data from 2013 to 2020 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and concurrent atmospheric reanalysis data, this study employs Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) techniques to analyze the variations in near-surface ozone concentrations, the typical spatial distribution of ozone modal concentrations, and their relationships with major meteorological factors. The results indicate that the near-surface ozone concentration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region overall shows an increasing trend, with significant increases noted from 2017 to 2019, exhibiting a spatial distribution pattern of higher concentrations in the south and lower in the north. The first mode of the EOF reveals consistent spatial variability in near-surface ozone concentrations across the region, with the most significant changes observed in the areas around the junctions of Baoding, Shijiazhuang, Hengshui, and Cangzhou. The daily maximum 8-hour moving average values of ozone concentration are positively correlated with the temperature at 15:00 and the meridional wind speed, and negatively correlated with the relative humidity at the same time, with these correlations being most significant in the southern part of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

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    Distribution of net ecosystem productivity in the Hulunbuir region from 2001 to 2021 and its relationship with temperature and precipitation
    Xuebin QU,Dan LI,Ye TIAN,Yueji ZHAO,Lanbiao ZHANG,Yue DONG
    2024, 40 (4):  100-106.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.012
    Abstract ( 75 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (2617KB) ( 49 )   Save

    Utilizing MODIS NPP and meteorological station data from 2001 to 2021, this study calculated the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in the Hulunbuir region and analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of NEP and its relationships with temperature and precipitation. The results show that the annual average NEP in the Hulunbuir is 249.4 gC·m-2·a-1, decreasing from the central and southern forests of the Greater Khingan Range to its flanks, with the western Hulunbuir grasslands having the lowest NEP and the highest coefficient of variation, indicating a relatively fragile ecological environment. The NEP in the Hulunbuir region has increased at an average rate of 4.5 gC·m-2·a-1, with rapid increases observed in the forest-agriculture transition zone east of the Greater Khingan Range and slower increases in the northern part of the Greater Khingan Range and southeastern Hulunbuir grasslands. The Hurst index analysis suggests that future trends in NEP across most of Hulunbuir will exhibit anti-persistence, which is not conducive to enhancing the region′s carbon sequestration capacity. The NEP in Hulunbuir′s grasslands, croplands, and forests at the southeastern foothills of the Greater Khingan Range shows a significant or highly significant positive correlation with precipitation during the growing season. The NEP in the grassland areas has a significant or highly significant negative correlation with temperatures during the growing season, while the post-fire areas in the Greater Khingan Range show a significant or highly significant positive correlation with temperatures during the growing season.

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    Spatial and temporal variations of vegetation net primary productivity and its driving factors in Ningxia from 2000 to 2020
    Hui ZHAO,Menghua LI,Jianling YANG,Jianping LI,Yanping WANG,Yingjuan HAN,Haiying WU
    2024, 40 (4):  107-115.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.013
    Abstract ( 65 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (2841KB) ( 41 )   Save

    To clarify the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and driving factors of vegetation productivity in Ningxia since 2000, this study utilizes MODIS Net Primary Productivity (NPP) data (MOD17A3HGF), Sen′s slope, Mann-Kendall trend test, and Hurst index to investigate the changes in NPP from 2000 to 2020. Employing the geographical detector, the study examines the influence of ten factors including meteorological conditions, topography, and socio-economic aspects on the spatial differentiation of vegetation NPP in Ningxia. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the spatial distribution of vegetation NPP in Ningxia was high in the north and south and low in the middle, with an NPP growth rate of 52.8 gC·m·(10 a-1), and significant increases observed in 91.4% of the region. The average Hurst index is 0.447, suggesting a weak anti-persistence in future NPP, indicating a slight decreasing trend. Meteorological conditions are identified as the primary factor influencing the spatial differentiation of vegetation NPP in Ningxia, while the impact of socio-economic factors is not significant.

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    Evaluation of the climate comfort of residential environments in Xinzhou city from 1971 to 2020
    Xiaokang QIN,Lijing GUAN,Li YANG,Lei WANG,Lijun WANG,Tianliang WEN,Lijun KANG
    2024, 40 (4):  116-122.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.014
    Abstract ( 88 )   HTML ( 7 )   PDF (1536KB) ( 68 )   Save

    This study selects daily observational data from 15 national meteorological stations in Xinzhou city of Shanxi province from 1971 to 2020. Using methods such as the linear trend rate, moving average, and Mann-Kendall sudden change test, it analyzes the characteristics of changes in the climate comfort of residential environments in Xinzhou city. The results indicate that the overall climate comfort of the residential environment in Xinzhou city is cold, with June to August being the comfortable months and July being the most comfortable month, totaling 102.2 comfortable days per year. From 1971 to 2020, both the wind efficiency index and the temperature-humidity index in Xinzhou city showed significant upward trends, with sudden increases in 1986 and 1997 respectively, enhancing the residential environmental comfort. The climate comfort in Xinzhou decreases with increasing altitude, as does the number of comfortable days. The comfort level is relatively higher in the Wutai Mountain scenic area from late May to early September, with July being the most comfortable. Overall, the climate comfort zones and relatively comfortable zones in Xinzhou city are located in the lower-altitude areas of the Xinding Basin and along the Yellow River, while the less comfortable areas are in the high-altitude cold mountain regions.

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    Comparative analysis of potato yield forecasting for different methods in Hebei province
    Sijia XUE,Pengpeng WANG,Ruijiang WEI,Yunxiu WANG,Mei YANG,Yuanyuan LIU
    2024, 40 (4):  123-130.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.015
    Abstract ( 58 )   HTML ( 4 )   PDF (1452KB) ( 40 )   Save

    Utilizing daily meteorological data from 17 basic meteorological observation stations, along with potato yield and growth period data in Hebei province from 1982 to 2022, we compared potato yield of separation calculation using methods of three-year moving average, five-year moving average, five-point quadratic smoothing, Hodrick-Prescott filtering, and quadratic exponential smoothing, and applied the key meteorological factor method and the climate suitability method to simulate and validate potato yield, analyzing the correlation coefficients, root mean square errors, and forecast accuracy between the fitted and actual yields. The results indicated that all methods can fit the yield trend well. Meteorological yield exhibits significant inter-annual variability, with considerable differences among the yield separated by the different methods. For yield forecasting, the quadratic exponential smoothing method performs the best, followed by the Hodrick-Prescott filtering method, while the 3-year moving average method is the least effective.

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    Assessment of temperature suitability and chilling injury risk for overwinter vegetable growing in insulated steel-framed greenhouses in Tianjin
    Tao LIU, Chaoyang DONG, Tengge WANG, Fangying TAN, Fang LIU, Xueyan MA, Zhenfa LI
    2024, 40 (4):  131-137.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.016
    Abstract ( 65 )   HTML ( 6 )   PDF (1963KB) ( 36 )   Save

    Using the indoor and outdoor meteorological observation data from two novel insulated steel frame greenhouses in Tianjin over the period from December of 2021 to March of 2022, we applied the Random Forest (RF) method to simulate the distribution of temperature within the two greenhouses, analyzed the variation in heat resources under different climatic conditions and the temperature suitability of vegetable growing, and assessed the risk of low temperature. The results indicated that the indoor air temperature simulated by the RF method correlates highly with the measured values, with a coefficient of determination exceeding 0.85 and a consistency index D value above 0.988 in both novel insulated steel frame greenhouses. The minimum temperature within the heated insulated steel frame greenhouses is consistently maintained above 10 ℃, with minimal fluctuations, making it ideal for the cultivation of semi-tolerant and warm vegetables (with a suitability degree ranging from 0.86 to 0.97 and 0.73 to 0.90, respectively, and no risk of low temperature injury). Conventional insulated steel frame greenhouses can maintain a minimum temperature above -3 ℃, suitable for cold-hardy and half-cold-hardy vegetables (with a suitability degree ranging from 0.59 to 0.91 and 0.43 to 0.86, respectively, and a low risk of low temperature injury).

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    Bulletins
    Comparative analysis of summer daily electricity consumption model in Shijiazhuang based on meteorological indices
    Cuihua ZHANG,Xiaonan DUAN,Tao BIAN
    2024, 40 (4):  138-144.  doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2024.04.017
    Abstract ( 55 )   HTML ( 1 )   PDF (1892KB) ( 34 )   Save

    Based on the daily social electricity consumption and meteorological data of Shijiazhuang in summer from 2017 to 2021, we calculated temperature and humidity index, hotness index, and comfort index. We employed multiple linear regression analysis and the BP neural network algorithm to explore the correlation between daily social electricity consumption and these meteorological indices in the region. We then developed models for electricity consumption, i.e.a multiple linear regression model and a neural network model. The results indicated that the spatial and temporal distribution of daily electricity consumption and the number of uncomfortable days of living environments during summer are largely similar. Moreover, there is a notably positive correlation between the summer daily meteorological indices and social electricity consumption. Among the indices, the correlation between daily electricity use and the number of environmentally uncomfortable days is the most significant. A model parameterized by the comfort index for predicting daily summer electricity consumption is found to be particularly applicable. The study demonstrates that both the multiple linear regression analysis and the BP neural network algorithm can effectively capture the general trend of daily social electricity consumption, although the latter exhibits a higher degree of error. The accuracy of the social daily electricity consumption forecast model can be enhanced by focusing on the month of June, which significantly contributes to the error in the multiple linear regression analysis model. Additionally, establishing thresholds for meteorological factors and comfort indices that define the onset of peak and trough periods can further refine the model′s predictive capabilities.

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