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主办单位:中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号:ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号:CN 21-1531/P

Table of Content

    30 August 2014, Volume 30 Issue 4 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Articles
    Circulation characteristics of continuous disastrous rainstorms and terrain forcing effect on September 2011 in West China
    CHEN Miao, NIU Tao, GUO Shi-chang,LIU Ji-yan, DING Xu-hui
    2014, 30 (4):  1-8. 
    Abstract ( 519 )   PDF (3746KB) ( 1226 )   Save

    Based on precipitation data from 7213 weather stations in Shaanxi province and its surrounding areas, the spatial distributions of precipitation from September 1 to 18, 2011 in the West China were analyzed. The results indicate that accumulated precipitation during the period is twice to threefold as much as that during the same period of history. Precipitation is characterized with long duration and serious disaster. This precipitation event can be divided into three processes, i.e. the first process is from September 4 to 6, the second on September 11 and the third from September16 to 18. According to 1°×1° NCEP reanalysis data, atmospheric circulation characteristics of these three processes suggest that major water vapor transport of lower level in rainstorm region has two branches. One is the southern air flow from eastern Sichuan province to north, and the other is the eastern air flow from southern North China plain to west. Corresponding to these three precipitation processes, three westerly troughs influence the circulation in 500 hPa, and 700 hPa southerly and 850 hPa, and northerly winds appear in three obvious control periods over West China. Unstable stratification is formed because southerly airflow in 700 hPa transports a large number of warm-moist airflow to West China in advance. When dry-cold air transported by northern wind enters into the bottom of warm-moist air mass and lifts it, dynamic lift action in the front of the superadded trough and wind field convergence uplift caused by the terrain occur, which makes the convective activity strengthened and potential unstable energy released, so appears heavy rain. Continued unstable stratification and dynamic lifting caused by stable circulation situation (such as blocking high) and specific terrain condition, which benefits to release unstable energy, are the essential reason forming steady and continuous rainstorm in West China.

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    Comparative analysis of severe convective weather characteristics in different stages of Northeast China cold vortex
    YING Shuang.YUAN Da-yu . LI Shang-feng
    2014, 30 (4):  9-18. 
    Abstract ( 535 )   PDF (4444KB) ( 434 )   Save

     Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data with 1?×1? spatial resolution, meteorological data from regional automatic weather stations (AWS), FY-2D/2E satellite image and GPS/MET data, three severe convective weather events in different stages of Northeast China cold vortex on June 7 to 18, 2012 over Changchu area were diagnosed and compared. The results show that during the forming stage of Northeast China cold vortex, an isolated-deep-moist convection of meso-β-scale is triggered by the ascending branch of secondary circulation induced by coupled high/low jets. During the developing stage of Northeast China cold vortex, a convective system of meso-α-scale is triggered by invasion of dry-cold air from upper to middle and lower troposphere, so forms an upper dew point front at the same time. During the weakening stage of Northeast China cold vortex, a convective system of meso-β-scale is formed by the weakening of Northeast China cold vortex to an upper trough moving eastward, whose rear part is cold air above the large range of low-level warm and moist air, and surface meso-scale converges in the same time.

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    Numerical simulation on a rainstorm process caused by Northeast China cold vortex and its diagnostic analysis
    REN Li,YANG Yan-min,JIN Le,HAN Bing,GUAN Ming
    2014, 30 (4):  19-25. 
    Abstract ( 518 )   PDF (2706KB) ( 513 )   Save

    Based on conventionally observational data, the NCEP reanalysis data and satellite cloud image, a rainstorm process caused by Northeast China cold vortex in the southwest of Heilongjiang province on June 18-19, 2009 was analyzed and simulated by a WRF numerical model. The effects of weather system and mesoscale characteristics were discussed. The results indicate that the heavy rain is caused by warm-wet shear in front of Northeast China cold vortex. Cold vortex moves slowly because of impeding effect of Okhotsk high, which leads to increase of precipitation. The strong convergence and updraft of strong southeast warm-wet airflow on the shear provide dynamic conditions for the heavy rain, while low-level jets supply abundant water vapor for the heavy rain. The increase of temperature and humidity in the low level makes atmospheric stratification unstable. Low strong convergence area and upper strong divergence area overlay, which consequently leads intense ascending movement. It provides conditions of deep convection development and promotes the formation and maintenance of mesoscale system when heavy rain occurs. Rainstorm is caused by development and movement of several mesoscale cloud clusters that is in the cloud belt of warm front. The mesoscale convergence line on the ground provides the advantageous conditions for the development and maintenance of mesoscale cloud clusters. The numerical simulation result suggests that rainstorm happens because two mesoscale shear lines develop and move successively in the same region. There is a mesoscale vertical circulation which is related to rainstorm on the mesoscale shear line.

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    Effects of establishment of mixed layer on a strong gust weather process
    WANG Jing,ZHAO Yu-jie,WU Zhen-ling,CAI Zi-ying
    2014, 30 (4):  26-33. 
    Abstract ( 424 )   PDF (2557KB) ( 338 )   Save

    Based on the NCEP reanalysis data and conventionally observational data, influence mechanism of establishment of mixed layer (ML) on a strong gust weather process on March 23 2012 in Tianjin was diagnosed and simulated. The results show that joint action of strong pressure and allobaric gradient in front of cold high is synoptic background of formation of surface strong gusts. Strong gusts occur in the period of higher surface temperature, lower pressure and low relative humidity. In the afternoon, the hot and dry convection within the deep ML makes the upper-level momentum that is in the north side of upper jet easily propagate to ground layer effectively, which leads to enhancement of surface gusts. The establishment of deep ML is another reason leading to formation of strong surface gusts. Results simulated by the WRF suggest that local intensity of the ML may cause local differences of downward propagation of momentum, which may be the important factor causing spatial differences of gusts intensity over Tianjin.

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    Projection and evaluation of precipitation over Northeast China based on five IPCC AR4 coupled climate models
    CUI Yan, ZHOU Xiao-yu, ZHAO Chun-yu,GONG Qiang,WANG Ying,LI Qian,AO Xue,FANG Yi-he,ZHANG Hai-na
    2014, 30 (4):  34-41. 
    Abstract ( 416 )   PDF (1259KB) ( 327 )   Save

    Based on five global climate datasets from IPCC AR4 and the observational precipitation data at 162 meteorological stations in the Northeast China, precipitation simulated by five global climate models and the multi-model ensemble (MME) was evaluated. Precipitation change was predicted and assessed under three emission scenarios, i.e. SRES B1, A1B and A2. The results show that monthly precipitation could be well simulated by the global climate model in the Northeast China, while simulated values are systematically wetter than observed values. The MME could well simulate spatial distributions of precipitation, while simulated center lies to the north of its observed position and simulated precipitation intensity is stronger than observed values. Also, the simulated precipitation using this model is more accurate in summer than in winter in the Northeast China. According to the projection, precipitation could increase in the 21st century under three emission scenarios. Increasing amplitude of precipitation is higher in the later 21st century than in the early and middle 21st century, so is in winter than in other three seasons. For three emission scenarios, increasing amplitude of precipitation under SRES A2 are as much as that under SRES A1B, while both are more than that under SRES B1. Distributions of precipitation are almost similar in all scenarios. Increasing amplitude of precipitation is the largest around the Bohai Sea region, and it will increase by 7% in the early and middle of 21st century and 16% in the later of 21st century under SRES A2.

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    Relationship between winter air temperature in Eastern China and Arctic Oscillation
    LEI Yang-na,SUN Xian,LE Zhang-yan
    2014, 30 (4):  42-48. 
    Abstract ( 432 )   PDF (1162KB) ( 362 )   Save

    Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Arctic Oscillation (AO) index series and monthly temperature at 160 weather stations in China, variation characteristics of winter air temperature and AO index series as well as both relationships from 1951 to 2007 were analyzed. The results show that there is a positive correlation relationship between winter air temperature and AO indexes in the eastern China. Winter air temperature index and Arctic Oscillation index both increase gradually. Their annual and inter-decadal variations are significant and both have a 18 years cycle. According to the partial correlation coefficient, effects of the Siberia high on winter air temperature in the eastern China are significant on annual scale, while the AO index has not a significant correlation with winter air temperature; effects of AO on winter air temperature are more significant than that of the Siberia high on interdecadal scale. Winter air temperature and AO index in the eastern China are high when the East Asian trough is weak, and vice versa. On inter-annual scale, the East Asian though has significantly effect on inter-annual variations of winter air temperature of Eastern China, while the correlation between AO and winter air temperature is not significant; on interdecadal scale, effects of AO index and the East Asian though on winter air temperature changes in the Eastern China are significant.

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    Analysis of vertical temperature stratification of freezing rain and its prediction in Jiangxi province
    ZHENG Jing,XU Ai-hua, XU Bin
    2014, 30 (4):  49-56. 
    Abstract ( 565 )   PDF (1986KB) ( 375 )   Save

    Based on conventionally observational data at 89 weather stations in Jiangxi province from 1960 to 2013, characteristics of vertical temperature stratification for 106 freezing rain cases were analyzed in terms of methods of a statistical analysis and a interpolation, from which a prediction method was established. The results indicate that temperature decreases sharply from 1000 hPa to 850 hPa and increases on 700 hPa when freezing rain happens. There is significant inversion layer between 925 hPa and 700 hPa. Warm layer is essential to freezing rain, and it is located in 700 hPa for 87.7 % cases and in 850 hPa for only 9.4 % cases. Temperature threshold standard for freezing rain prediction is defined in Jiangxi province i.e., temperature is <1.0 ℃ at 1000 hPa, <-2.0 ℃ at 925 hPa and 850 hPa, and ≥0.0 ℃ at 700 hPa. However, it should be vigilant when warm layer is located in 850 hPa. The lower ground temperature is, the more favorable formation of freezing rain is. Freezing rain occurs when the minimum temperature is below 0.0 ℃ and average temperature is below 1.0 ℃. Cold and warm air converges continuously over the areas from 27 °N to 28 °N. In addition, the frequency of average temperature below 1.0 ℃ and minimum temperature below 0.0 ℃ in the south of the Poyang Lake to Fuhe River are significantly higher than those in other areas, which makes freezing rain in these areas more often than in others. According to the corresponding relationship of freezing rain with atmospheric inversion temperature stratification and ground air temperature, an automatic diagnostic method is developed based on the data from the model and observational stations.

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    Inhomogeneity characteristic of extreme precipitation during rainy season in North China
    YANG Yan-juan,LI Ming-cai
    2014, 30 (4):  57-62. 
    Abstract ( 413 )   PDF (1601KB) ( 380 )   Save

     Based on the daily precipitation data at 50 weather stations in the North China from 1957 to 2011, concentration period and concentration degree of extreme precipitation were analyzed and its inhomogeneity was discussed. The results indicate that the number of extreme precipitation is more in the southeast area and less in the northwest of North China. Concentration degree is large in the east and small in the west, namely, extreme precipitation concentrates in the east and disperses in the west. Extreme precipitation mainly appears in the last ten days of July which is the main flood period in the North China. Extreme precipitation and concentration degree are in significantly decreasing trends, while decreasing trend of concentration period is not significant. Extreme precipitation has a close correlation with concentration degree and concentration period. The more extreme precipitation is, the more concentrated extreme precipitation, the later concentration period is, and vice versa. The above relationship is most significant in the Bohai Bay region. Further analysis show that the trends of extreme precipitation, concentration period and concentration degree are in decreasing trends in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan regions. The abrupt change of extreme precipitation occurs in the middle of 1990s in these regions. Extreme precipitation reduces and disperses obviously after 1990s, and concentration period is in advance.

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    Spatial and temporal distributions of cold wave from 1971 to 2011 in Liaoning province
    YAN Qi, LU Jing-long, TIAN Li,CUI Jin, LI Shuang, YANG Qing
    2014, 30 (4):  63-69. 
    Abstract ( 557 )   PDF (1243KB) ( 421 )   Save

     Based on diurnal minimum temperature data at 58 meteorological stations in Liaoning province from 1971 to 2011, the spatial and temporal characteristics of cold wave were analyzed. The results indicate that there are two centers of large values for annual mean frequency of cold wave. One center is located in the northeast Liaoning province, and another is in Jianping of western Liaoning province. The most widespread strong cold wave events occur in November. Regional cold wave mainly occurs in 1970s, which is in an insignificantly decreasing trend in recent 41 years. Cold wave often appears from middle ten days of October and early  ten days of May of next year, and it concentrates between early ten days of December and last ten days of February of next year, especially in January. There are a 20-year, 13-year, 8-year and 4-year cycles for regional cold wave. Weather patterns affecting regional cold wave include a small trough type, a horizontal trough type and an east moving type of low trough. The indexes forecasting regional cold wave are as follows: there is an increasing temperature process at least one day before regional cold wave happens; temperature of 500hPa cold centre is less than or equal to -40℃; the central value of high pressure system is above 1050 hPa, and pressure is more than 1030 hPa in the center of splitting smaller high pressure; jet stream is greater than or equal to 24 m.s-1 at 500 hPa and 12 m.s-1 at 850 hPa; isotherm density at 850 hPa around Liaoning province is above 5 strips /10 latitude, and angle between wind direction and isotherms is greater than 60°.

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    Possible causes of abrupt turning from drought to flooding in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River valley during spring to summer of 2011
    LI Ming,ZHU Cong-wen,PANG Yi-shu
    2014, 30 (4):  70-78. 
    Abstract ( 580 )   PDF (3186KB) ( 530 )   Save

     Based on observed precipitation and the NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed datasets from 1980 to 2011, possible causes of abrupt turning from drought to flooding in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River valley (YRV) region during spring to early summer of 2011 were discussed using methods of an EOF and a linear regression analysis. The results indicate that the persistent La Nina events during January to May of 2011 maintain the 125°E eastward shift of western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), thus the southwesterly moisture flux fails to reach the YRV region, which leads to the persistent drought events from January to May of 2011. However, sensitive heating flux enhances in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) with the decaying of La Nina in June, which induces a westward shift of WNPSH moving to 110°E from east to northwest and makes water vapor from southwesterly wind transporting to the YRV. Convection from the TP enhances and moves to east, and it meets southwest air flow from the northwest side of WNPSH in the middle and lower reaches of the YRV, which leads to increase precipitation sharply, and then it forms abrupt turning from drought to flooding in 2011.

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    Study on climatic index of delayed cool injury for crop in Heilongjiang province
    LI Shuai,CHEN Li,WANG Liang-liang, WAN Lin-lin
    2014, 30 (4):  79-83. 
    Abstract ( 397 )   PDF (784KB) ( 347 )   Save

    For a problem of delayed cool injury that influences agricultural production in Heilongjiang province, we discussed an usability of climatic indexes of cool injury from literatures. The technical method, detecting critical value and calculation scheme for the climatic indexes of cool injury was determined with considering some factors such as planting area of maize and rice moving to north. Based on monthly mean temperature during May to September from 1961 to 2012 at 27 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang province, the thermal index anomaly was used to detect cool injury. The cool injury indexes were closely related to latitude, longitude and altitude, thus the climatic indexes of the cool injury were established in term of a stepwise regression method. The results indicate that the estimated cool injury years determined by the climatic indexes are in a good agreement with the actual cool injury years. Thus, these indexes could be used as monitoring index. Also, the indexes only need minor input data and simple for calculation, thus they have practicability and popularization. These indexes can be used to analyze the historical change of cool injury in Heilongjiang province.

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    Characteristics of frozen soil active layer in alpine region
    GAO Feng, LIU Jun, NI Chang-jian,GAO Yong-gang,ZHAO Hui-ying
    2014, 30 (4):  84-90. 
    Abstract ( 376 )   PDF (1259KB) ( 496 )   Save

    Based on frozen soil active layer data and 0 cm ground temperature data at 83 weather stations in Heilongjiang province from 1960 to 2010, temporal and spatial characteristics of frozen soil active layer were analyzed using liner and polynomial regression analysis methods. Change trend of the maximum frozen soil depth and its characteristics were discussed for five typical climate region of Heilongjiang province, and the influencing factors of frozen soil active layer were analyzed. The results indicate that the early date of soil becoming frozen begins in September. The maximum depth of frozen soil appears in March, while thickness of frozen soil is nearly 0 cm in August. From north to south in Heilongjiang province, the maximum frozen soil depth becomes shallow gradually; the early date of soil frozen is delayed; the ending date of frozen soil occurs early. The maximum frozen soil depth of active layer is in a decreasing trend in Heilongjiang province, and the degradation trend is obvious. For the interdecadal change, the maximum frozen soil depth has not a significant change before 1990s, while thickness of frozen soil is deeper; it is in a decreasing trend after 1990s. The ground?temperature is lower in high latitude regions, thus frozen soil depth is deeper in high latitude regions than in low latitude regions under the same conditions.

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    Reviews
    Progress in tropical cyclone intensity and structure change
    HU Shu, SUN Li-yin,LI Ying
    2014, 30 (4):  91-98. 
    Abstract ( 488 )   PDF (505KB) ( 529 )   Save

    Physical process of structure and intensity change of tropical cyclone (TC) and its influencing factors are very complex. Sea-land-atmosphere complex interactions in the landing process often lead to mutation of TC structure and intensity, which makes prediction difficult. Recent scientific methods such as field scientific experiments and numerical simulations have been improved. Studies on TC structure and intensity also have some new progress, for example, abrupt intensity change of TC, and the impact of different underlying surfaces on changed TC intensity and so on. However, studies on some issues are still not comprehensive such as asymmetrical TC structure that impacts its intensity,?and the relationship between TC interior structure and intensity. Based on a lot of literatures, this paper summarizes the main factors affecting TC structure and intensity including environmental air current, underlying surface and internal structure, which provides references for improving forecast methods of TC structure and intensity.

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    Scientific Notes
    An agro-meteorological operation and straight-through service system based on Web-GIS technology
    CHEN Jin-hua,WU Wen-yu,YANG Tai-ming, HE Bin-fang,WANG Xiao-dong
    2014, 30 (4):  99-104. 
    Abstract ( 427 )   PDF (1729KB) ( 406 )   Save

    It is very important to construct more automatically meteorological business in straight-through farming weather operation and service. Depending on provincial agro-meteorological operation and service platform, an agro-meteorological operation and straight-through service system (AMOSSS) is developed based on Web-GIS technology. Some basic data and primary products which are exported from provincial agro-meteorological platform are translated into spatial database by ArcSDE technology in AMOSSS, for example, agro-meteorological monitoring, disaster diagnosis and analysis and so on, and then these products are displayed and analyzed in web browser using technology of ArcGIS Server for Flex API. Agro-meteorological expert knowledge sets are also constructed in AMOSSS, including some agro-meteorological annual service handbooks, agro-meteorological indexes sets, countermeasures sets of disaster prevention and so on. Lastly, some statistical tools used to data analysis and a shared platform of agro-meteorological service products are set up. The AMOSSS is successfully applied in any county of Anhui province, and it is the most important technical support on straight-through agriculture meteorological services.

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    Bulletins
    The third level aquatic ecological function regionalization and ecological function assessment in typical watersheds of northern Liaoning province
    WANG Jin-long, LI Fa-yun, LV Chun-jian, WEI Ran, LI Chong
    2014, 30 (4):  105-112. 
    Abstract ( 385 )   PDF (1113KB) ( 339 )   Save

     Aquatic ecological regionalization of watershed is an important foundation for integrated management of water ecology and water resource protection. According to investigation results of natural environment, hydrological data and GIS data in the typical Liaohe river watershed of northern Liaoning province, division indexes of the third level were determined by results of the first and second levels, and the third ecological regionalization was obtained in Qinghe and Fanhe river basins. The results indicate that it can be divided into seven and four aquatic ecological regionalizations of the third level in Qinghe and in Fanhe river basins. Ecological service function can be divided into five categories, namely, maintaince of biodiversity and habitat safety, product supply and agricultural production, water conservation and regulation, human settlements protection and urban development, soil conservation and ecological restoration. The results of third level aquatic ecological regionalization could provide scientific references for comprehensive prevention of water pollution and the integrated management of aquatic ecological regionalization.

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