主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 108-115.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2025.03.014

• 快报 • 上一篇    

基于改进层次分析法的区域雷电灾害风险模糊评估

梁景峰1,2,3, 李小龙4, 程向阳5, 赵京波3, 许俊卿3   

  1. 1. 中国气象局雄安大气边界层重点开放实验室, 河北雄安新区 071700;
    2. 河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室, 河北石家庄 050021;
    3. 河北省信息工程学校, 河北保定 071000;
    4. 河北省气象行政技术服务中心, 河北石家庄 050021;
    5. 安徽省气象灾害防御技术中心, 安徽合肥 230031
  • 收稿日期:2023-08-29 修回日期:2024-01-25 出版日期:2025-06-28 发布日期:2025-09-29
  • 通讯作者: 李小龙,男,高级工程师,E-mail:244815691@qq.com。 E-mail:244815691@qq.com
  • 作者简介:梁景峰,男,1980年生,高级工程师,主要从事雷电防护技术、气象教育培训等研究,E-mail:596010919@qq.com。
  • 基金资助:
    保定市科技计划项目(2441ZF121)和安徽省重点研究与开发标准化专项(202004h07020001)共同资助。

Fuzzy assessment of regional lightning hazard risk based on improved analytic hierarchy process

LIANG Jingfeng1,2,3, LI Xiaolong4, CHENG Xiangyang5, ZHAO Jingbo3, XU Junqing3   

  1. 1. China Meteorological Administration Xiong'an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory, Xiong'an New Area 071700, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China;
    3. Hebei Information Engineering School, Baoding 071000, China;
    4. Meteorological Administration Technology Service Center of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China;
    5. Anhui Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center, Hefei 230031, China
  • Received:2023-08-29 Revised:2024-01-25 Online:2025-06-28 Published:2025-09-29

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摘要： 为科学有效开展区域雷电灾害风险评估,在分析国内外灾害损失评估方法、雷电灾害风险评估相关技术标准和规范的基础上,提出基于改进层次分析法的区域雷电灾害风险模糊综合评估方案。利用3标度改进层次分析法计算评估指标权重,避免一致性检验,提高判断矩阵构造的便捷性和准确性;采用等差三角形隶属函数确定评估指标风险等级隶属度,实现不同类型评估指标风险等级隶属度确定方法的一致性;根据最大隶属度原则确定评估结果及风险等级,符合雷电灾害的模糊性和不确定性,提高风险评估的科学性。结果表明:利用该方案,采用闪电定位资料、雷达气象数据、现场实际勘测和区域规划报告等,对河北保定莲池高新技术产业开发区进行区域雷电灾害风险评估,评估结果与采用现行雷电灾害风险评估技术规范取得的结果一致,证明本方法的可行性和正确性。

关键词: 雷电灾害, 风险评估, 改进层次分析法, 模糊综合评估, 隶属函数

Abstract: In order to carry out regional lightning disaster risk assessment scientifically and effectively,a fuzzy comprehensive assessment scheme of regional lightning disaster risk based on improved analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) was proposed based on the analysis of domestic and international disaster loss assessment methods,especially the relevant technical standards and specifications of lightning disaster risk assessment.The improved three scale analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate weights of assessment index,avoiding the consistency test,and improving the convenience and accuracy of constructing judgment matrix.The membership degree of risk grade of assessment index was determined by using triangular arithmetic membership function; and the consistency of the membership degree determination methods of risk grade of different assessment indexes was realized.The evaluation results and risk grades were determined according to the maximum membership degree principle,which accounts for the fuzziness and uncertainty of lightning disaster and improves the scientific robustness of risk assessment.By implementing this methodology with lightning positioning data,radar meteorological observations,on-site field investigations,and regional planning documentation,a comprehensive lightning disaster risk assessment was carried for Hebei Baoding Lianchi High-tech Industrial Development Zone.The results are consistent with those obtained by using the current technical standards for lightning disaster risk assessment,which confirms the feasibility and reliability of the method.

Key words: Lightning disaster, Risk assessment, Improved analytic hierarchy process (IAHP), Fuzzy comprehensive assessment, Membership function

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