主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 28-33.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

2010年国内外3种数值预报在东北地区的预报检验

张宁娜1 黄阁1 吴曼丽1 梁寒1 盛永2 刘桂英3   

  1. 1.沈阳中心气象台，辽宁 沈阳 110016；2. 辽宁省气象局，辽宁 沈阳 110001；3. 成都飞机公司试飞站，四川 成都 610092
  • 出版日期:2012-04-30 发布日期:2012-04-30

Contrastive verification of three numerical prediction products in the northeast of China in 2010

ZHANG Ning-na1 HUANG Ge1 WU Man-li1 LIANG Han1 SHENG Yong2 LIU Gui-ying3   

  1. 1.Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory, Shenyang 110016, China; 2. Liaoning Meteorological Service, Shenyang 110001, China; 3. Test Flight Station of Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, Chengdu 610092, China
  • Online:2012-04-30 Published:2012-04-30

PDF (PC)

1404

被引次数

54

摘要： 对中国国家气象中心T639数值预报、德国降水预报和欧洲中心（ECMWF）数值预报中对中国东北地区的降水、温度和环流模式的预报结果，分别进行检验。结果表明：降水预报中，德国降水预报对中国东北地区的晴雨预报、一般性降水预报效果较好，但T639数值预报的漏报率明显低于德国降水预报，而T639数值预报中24—120 h暴雨预报的TS评分明显高于德国降水预报。温度预报中，T639数值预报对中国东北地区温度预报72 h内基本可用；欧洲中心（ECMWF）数值预报在96 h内效果较好。对于24 h的温度预报准确率，T639数值预报稍高于ECMWF数值预报结果。环流模式方面：48h内T639预报效果好于ECMWF，72 h以后ECMWF预报效果好于T639。

关键词: T639数值预报, 德国降水预报, 欧洲中心（ECMWF）数值预报, 降水, 气温, 环流, 预报检验

Abstract: The application results from three numerical weather prediction models in the northeast of China were verified and these include T639 from the national meteorological center of China, the Germany precipitation forecast and the European center for medium-range weather forecasts (ECMWF). The results indicated that for precipitation, the forecast effect of the Germany model is good in the northeast of China, but the missing rates of T639 are lower than that of Germany model. TS score of T639 to 24-120 h rainstorm prediction is also higher than that of Germany model. For temperature, the forecast effect of T639 within 72 h is available in the northeast China, and that of ECMWF within 96 h is good. The accuracy rates of T639 to 24 h temperature prediction are higher than that of ECMWF. The forecast effect of T639 to circulation model within 48 h is better than that of ECMWF, while the forecast effect of ECMWF beyond 72 h is good.

Key words: T639 numerical prediction, Germany precipitation forecast, European center for medium-range weather forecasts (ECMWF) numerical prediction, Precipitation, Temperature, Circulation, Forecast verification