主办单位：中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号：ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号：CN 21-1531/P
气象与环境学报

气象与环境学报 ›› 2012, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (5): 49-.doi:

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

沈阳冬季供暖指数预报研究

关健华1李岚1王冠2唐亚平1李党红1明慧青1孙婧1赵淼1戴欣童1   

  1. 1.辽宁省气象服务中心，辽宁 沈阳110016；2.辽宁省防雷技术服务中心，辽宁 沈阳110016
  • 出版日期:2012-10-31 发布日期:2012-10-31

An analysis of heating index forecast in winter in Shenyang

GUAN Jian-hua1 LI Lan1 WANG Guan2 TANG Ya-ping1 LI Dang-hong1 MING Hui-qing1 SUN Jing1 ZHAO Miao1 DAI Xin-tong1    

  1. 1. Meteorological Service Center in Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110016, China; 2. Liaoning Lightning Protection Technology and Service Center, Shenyang 110016, China
  • Online:2012-10-31 Published:2012-10-31

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摘要： 利用2009年11月1日至2010年3月31日沈阳市逐日6次气温、气压、相对湿度、降水、风速、日照和云量等气象资料及同时间、同时次的供、回水温度等供暖资料，采用多元回归方法，建立沈阳供暖预报方程，制订供暖气象节能预报指数，并根据供暖指数的大小确定供热量。结果表明：在确保室温达到18 ℃时,沈阳的供暖指数可以分为7级；供暖量（即供、回水温度值）预报值与气温实况相似度很高，而供暖量的实际值与气温实况相差较大。在151 d的供暖期内，约60 d 的供、回水温度与气温变化接近，占供暖日数的40%。采用供暖气象节能预报方法进行供暖，可改善送供暖质量，同时达到节能关排的目的，为供暖部门科学供暖，降低能耗，提供科学依据。

关键词: 气象节能, 冬季供暖指数, 供热量

Abstract: Based on the diurnal meteorological data with 4 hours interval from November 1, 2009 to March 31, 2010 such as temperature, air pressure, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration and cloud cover etc. and the simultaneous heating data including temperature of supply water and backwater, a forecast equation was established in Shenyang by a multi-regression method. A heating meteorological forecast index was developed and it could be used to determine the heating load. The results show that the heating meteorological forecast index could be divided into 7 levels if the indoor temperature must reach 18 ℃ . The trends of predicted temperature of supply water and backwater and outdoor air temperature are close, while the trends of the real temperature of supply water and backwater and outdoor air temperature are different. The number of days that the trend of the real temperature of supply water and backwater is similar to that of outdoor air temperature is only 60 days and accounts for 40% of heating period (151 days). The application of the heating meteorological forecast method could improve the quality of heating, control high-energy-consuming and high-emission and provide scientific references for the corresponding department.

Key words: Energy saving by the meteorological method, Heating index in winter, Heating load