主办单位:中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号:ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号:CN 21-1531/P

气象与环境学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 127-135.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2022.04.015

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于气象因子的南京市冬季和夏季用电量预测研究

陈圣劼1,2(),田心如1,2,*(),姚阮3,姜麟1   

  1. 1. 中国气象局交通气象重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210008
    2. 江苏省气象台, 江苏 南京 210008
    3. 江苏省气象公共服务中心, 江苏 南京 210008
  • 收稿日期:2021-01-22 出版日期:2022-08-28 发布日期:2022-09-22
  • 通讯作者: 田心如 E-mail:chenshengjieshiz@163.com;tianxr4858@sina.com
  • 作者简介:陈圣劼, 女, 1987年生, 高级工程师, 主要从事灾害性天气预报技术、天气与气候动力学方面的研究, E-mail: chenshengjieshiz@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局公共气象服务中心创新基金面上项目(M2020015);江苏省青年科技人才托举工程项目和江苏省气象局科研面上项目(KM202001)

Forecast of electricity consumption in Nanjing based on meteorological factors in winter and summer

Sheng-jie CHEN1,2(),Xin-ru TIAN1,2,*(),Ruan YAO3,Lin JIANG1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Nanjing 210008, China
    2. Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210008, China
    3. Jiangsu Meteorological Service Centre, Nanjing 210008, China
  • Received:2021-01-22 Online:2022-08-28 Published:2022-09-22
  • Contact: Xin-ru TIAN E-mail:chenshengjieshiz@163.com;tianxr4858@sina.com

摘要:

基于2014—2016年南京市常规气象逐时观测数据、逐日用电量和逐时用电负荷数据, 分析南京市用电量变化及其与气象因子的关系。结果表明: 南京市用电量7—8月、12月至翌年1月为两个峰值, 4月和10月为两个谷值, 年变化明显。四季均呈现显著“周末效应”。用电负荷一天内有两个峰值, 分别出现在10时和20时; 两个谷值, 一个谷值冬夏季在04时, 另一谷值冬季在14时, 夏季在18时。南京市用电量与气象条件的变化密切相关, 气象因子与用电量的关系在不同月份有所不同, 如夏(秋、冬)季气温日较差越大(小), 用电量越大; 7月、8月(10月至翌年3月)气温越高(低), 用电量越大; 冬季用电量受气象要素的影响程度总体低于夏季。冬季用电量主要受气温制约; 夏季用电量受气象要素的影响更为复杂, 除了气温, 还需综合考虑水汽、日照等因子。利用逐步回归法, 建立冬、夏季逐月日用电量气象预测方程, 方程中入选气象因子的存在明显的月际差异。不同月份分别针对性地考量入选气象因子的预报值, 做出用电量预估, 可为电力调度提供参考。

关键词: 用电量, 用电负荷, 气象因子, 预测

Abstract:

Based on the hourly meteorological data, daily electricity consumption (EC), and hourly power load data from 2014 to 2016, the relationships between the variation of EC and meteorological factors in Nanjing were analyzed.The EC in Nanjing is featured with significant annual variation with two peaks in July-August and December-January and two valleys in April and October.Power load features a prominent 'weekend effect' in all four seasons.The diurnal variation of power load shows two peaks and two valleys.The two peak times are at 10:00 and 20:00.The two valley times vary with seasons.One is at 04:00 in both summer and winter, and the other is at 14:00 in winter and 18:00 in summer.The EC in Nanjing is closely related to the variation of weather conditions.The meteorological factors play various or even opposite roles on EC in different months.For example, in summer (autumn and winter), the greater the EC, the larger (smaller) is the daily temperature range in summer (autumn and winter).The heavier the EC, the higher (lower) is temperature in July-August (October-March).The influence of meteorological factors on the EC in summer is larger than in winter.The EC of Nanjing is mainly affected by temperature in winter, while is complicatedly affected by humidity and sunshine besides temperature in summer.The monthly forecast equation for the daily EC in winter and summer is set up by a stepwise regression method with different selected meteorological factors which show obvious inter-month variation.Forecasts of the EC in different months are conducted by considering different selected meteorological factors, providing an important reference for power dispatch.

Key words: Electricity consumption, Power load, Meteorological factors, Forecast

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