辽宁区域性大暴雨成因分析及多模式数值预报空间检验

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2022.04.002

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the actual precipitation of three source fusion grid, the observation data from intensive automatic station, the basic radar reflectivity factors, high-resolution numerical prediction products, and FNL reanalysis data, the synoptic system classification tests on twelve regional rainstorm processes during flood season of 2020 in Liaoning province were carried out, and it was shown that the predictability of the cyclone rainstorm was low.Then the typical cyclonic rainstorm during July 12-14 was selected for further analysis.Using the object-oriented spatial test method, SAL (Structure, Amplitude, Location), combined with the traditional test method, the causes of prediction errors in different models were quantitatively analyzed from three aspects including structure, strength, and position.The results show that the rainstorm area is concentrated and presents double rain belt distribution.Rain intensity in the local area is significant and the reasons for precipitation are different in the areas of east and west of Liaoning province.The TS scores of CMA regional model are higher than those of the global model.SAL space test shows that CMA regional model well represented the internal structure of the rain belt, whereas the structural errors in the global model mainly due to the forecasting weakness of extreme precipitation.The strength tests show that the predicted rainfall intensities appear close to the actual situation in CMA-MESO3km, followed by EC_THIN, and insufficient in CMA_GFS.In general, the rainstorm area in each model is credible with the best result in CMA-MESO3km.The prediction errors in the rainstorm area mainly result from the significant discrepancies between the model prediction focus and the actual situation.

Key words: Heavy precipitation, SAL (Structure, Amplitude, Location), Numerical prediction, Rainstorm classification

CLC Number:

P457.6

Yue YU, Ming-lin BI, Qi YAN, Hai-feng LIN, Dong-lei FENG, Fan-yue YU. Cause analysis and spatial test of multi-mode numerical prediction on regional rainstorms in Liaoning province[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2022, 38(4): 11-18.

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References 10

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实况	预报
实况	≥50 mm	＜50 mm
≥50 mm	NA	NC
＜50 mm	NB	ND

暴雨分型	发生时段	影响系统	平均雨量/mm	最大小时雨量/mm	最大累计雨量/mm
气旋型	5.18—5.19	江淮气旋、东北冷涡	24.0	30.6	86.9
气旋型	8.15—8.16	华北气旋、东北冷涡	14.2	53.6	165.2
冷涡型	8.03—8.04	东北冷涡	15.5	80.7	134.0
	8.18—8.19	东北冷涡、切变线	31.0	71.8	221.3
	8.23—8.24	高空槽、东北冷涡	11.2	51.7	135.3
	9.15—9.16	东北冷涡	19.6	50.1	120.7
	5.21—5.24	东北冷涡	31.9	29.0	98.6
	9.05—9.06	东北冷涡、高空槽、低层切变线、低空急流	4.9	72.1	82.0
台风型	8.05—8.06	4号“黑格比”	5.7	44.2	112.9
	8.25—8.28	8号“巴威”	41.4	71.7	202.7
	9.07—9.08	10号“海神”	12.5	21.4	83.0
	9.02—9.03	9号“美莎克”	16.5	47.1	96.9

模式	冷涡型	台风型	气旋型
EC_THIN	49.58	19.62	0.00
CMA-MESO3km	46.37	22.69	15.15
CMA_GFS	17.15	13.20	1.41
CMA-MESO10km	36.01	26.47	14.50

模式	极值/mm	暴雨TS/(%)
实况	237	-
EC_THIN	118	12.26
CMA_GFS	47	0.00
CMA-MESO3km	238	27.11
CMA-MESO10km	150	21.74

模式	S	A	L	L₁	L₂
CMA-MESO3km	-0.2205	-0.2571	0.0576	0.0521	0.0056
CMA-MESO10km	0.3117	-0.3715	0.1557	0.1494	0.0063
CMA_GFS	0.5242	-1.0252	0.1104	0.0861	0.0243
EC_THIN	0.1394	-0.3475	0.0999	0.0936	0.0063

Cause analysis and spatial test of multi-mode numerical prediction on regional rainstorms in Liaoning province

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