Abstract:

Based on the four-factor theory of natural disaster risk, this study considers the natural and social-economic situation of the study area, establishes a conceptual framework and index system suitable for drought disaster risk in Tianshan Mountains, and carries out drought disaster risk assessment and zoning in the area combined with GIS technology.The results show that the areas with higher hazard factors are the Yili river valley and the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, while the eastern and western southern Xinjiang regions are less dangerous.The areas with high vulnerability to disaster-bearing bodies are the Yili river valley and Bole Prefecture, while Turpan, Hami, and Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture belong to low vulnerability areas.The areas with high sensitivity to the disaster-pregnancy environment are mainly distributed in the line from Jinghe to Turpan on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the western Aksu area, the northern Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, and other places, Yili River valleys, northern Bazhou, northern Hami, and western mountainous areas in southern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region are low-sensitive areas.The overall performance of disaster prevention and mitigation capacity is higher in the central and eastern regions than in the western regions.The overall drought risk in the Tianshan Mountains shows a trend of high in the middle and low at both ends.That is, the drought risk on the north and south sides of the Tianshan Mountains in the middle is higher than that in the western and eastern parts of southern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.The constructed evaluation model generally reflects the comprehensive risk level of drought disasters in the study area, which can provide a basis for disaster risk management, climate change response and drought resistance, and disaster reduction actions in the Tianshan grasslands of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.

Key words: Drought disaster, Risk assessment, Risk zoning