Journal of Meteorology and Environment ›› 2023, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (6): 51-60.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2023.06.007
• Articles • Previous Articles Next Articles
Miao WANG1(),Pengcheng QIN1,Chenxu SHE2,Xiaofang ZHAO1,Mingwei YANG3
Received:
2022-03-11
Online:
2023-12-28
Published:
2024-01-27
CLC Number:
Miao WANG,Pengcheng QIN,Chenxu SHE,Xiaofang ZHAO,Mingwei YANG. Simulation and projection of climate change in Central China based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(6): 51-60.
Table 1
Basic information of 12 CMIP6 models"
序号 | 模式 | 国家 | 分辨率/(纬度°×经度°) | 情景 | 历史时间/预估时间 |
1 | ACCESS-CM2 | 澳大利亚 | 1.2°×1.8° | HIS/126/245/370/585 | 1901—2014年/2015—2100年 |
2 | ACCES-ESM1-5 | 澳大利亚 | 1.2°×1.8° | HIS/126/245/370/585 | 1901—2014年/2015—2100年 |
3 | BCC-CSM2-MR | 中国 | 1.1°×1.1° | HIS/126/245/370/585 | 1961—2014年/2005—2100年 |
4 | CCCma-CanESM5 | 加拿大 | 2.8°×2.8° | HIS/126/245/370/585 | 1961—2014年/2005—2100年 |
5 | CNRM-CM6-1 | 法国 | 1.4°×1.4° | HIS/126/245/370/585 | 1850—2014年/2005—2100年 |
6 | Hadgem3-gc31-LL | 英国 | 1.3°×1.9° | HIS/126/245/585 | 1901—2014年/2015—2100年 |
7 | INM-CM4-8 | 俄罗斯 | 1.5°×2.0° | HIS/126/245/585 | 1901—2014年/2015—2100年 |
8 | INM-CM5-0 | 俄罗斯 | 1.5°×1.5° | HIS/126/245/585 | 1901—2014年/2015—2100年 |
9 | IPSL-CM6A-LR | 法国 | 1.3°×2.5° | HIS/126/245/585 | 1901—2014年/2015—2100年 |
10 | MIROC6 | 日本 | 1.4°×1.4° | HIS/126/245/585 | 1901—2014年/2015—2100年 |
11 | MPI-ESM1-2-HR | 德国 | 0.9°×0.9° | HIS/126/245/585 | 1901—2014年/2015—2100年 |
12 | MRI-ESM2-0 | 德国 | 1.1°×1.1° | HIS/126/245/585 | 1901—2014年/2015—2100年 |
Table 2
Spatial simulation results for temperature and precipitation in Central China from 1961 to 2014 using 12 CMIP6 models"
序号 | 模式 | 气温 | 降水 | |||||
空间相关系数 | 标准差比 | 均方根误差/℃ | 空间相关系数 | 标准差比 | 均方根误差/mm | |||
1 | ACCESS-CM2 | 0.84* | 1.27* | 0.04* | 0.98 | 0.96 | 3.51 | |
2 | ACCES-ESM1-5 | 0.82 | 1.26 | 0.04 | 0.99 | 1.02 | 1.93 | |
3 | BCC-CSM2-MR | 0.83* | 1.25* | 0.05* | 0.98 | 1.16 | 7.62 | |
4 | CCCma-CanESM5 | 0.83 | 1.29 | 0.04 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 3.34 | |
5 | CNRM-CM6-1 | 0.84* | 1.29* | 0.05* | 0.98* | 1.01* | 2.61* | |
6 | Hadgem3-gc31-Ⅱ | 0.84* | 1.26* | 0.05* | 0.98 | 0.97 | 3.83 | |
7 | INM-CM4-8 | 0.84 | 1.28 | 0.05 | 0.98* | 0.97* | 2.24* | |
8 | INM-CM5-0 | 0.83* | 1.28* | 0.05* | 0.98 | 1.04 | 2.15 | |
9 | IPSL-CM6A-LR | 0.83 | 1.28 | 0.04 | 0.97* | 0.93* | 2.70* | |
10 | MIROC6 | 0.82* | 1.26* | 0.05* | 0.98* | 1.02* | 2.89* | |
11 | MPI-ESM1-2-HR | 0.85 | 1.32 | 0.05 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 2.46 | |
12 | MRI-ESM2-0 | 0.84 | 1.28 | 0.55 | 0.97 | 1.01 | 4.64 | |
优选模式集合平均 | 0.84 | 1.26 | 0.04 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 2.22 |
Table 3
Projections of temperature and precipitation in Central China for different future periods under three scenarios from 2021 to 2100 simulated by an ensemble of optimally selected CMIP6 models"
气象要素 | 情景 | 2021—2100年 | 近期 | 中期 | 远期 |
气温/(℃/10 a) | SSP1-2.6 | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.28 | -0.06 |
SSP2-4.5 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.15 | |
SSP5-8.5 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.75 | |
降水/(mm/10 a) | SSP1-2.6 | 16.2 | -18.3 | -3.9 | 39.5 |
SSP2-4.5 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 40.6 | -0.6 | |
SSP5-8.5 | 19.3 | 6.2 | 4.3 | -14.1 |
Fig.5
Simulations of the annual mean temperature anomalies from six preferentially selected CMIP6 model ensembles (relative to the baseline period of 1995-2014) under the SSP1-2.6 (a), SSP2-4.5 (b), SSP5-8.5 (c) scenarios for Central China, for the years 2021-2100, the near-term period of 2021-2040 (near period), the mid-term period of 2041-2060 (mid period), and the long-term period of 2081-2100(end period)"
Fig.6
Simulations of the annual mean precipitation anomalies from six preferentially selected CMIP6 model ensembles (relative to the baseline period of 1995-2014) under the SSP1-2.6 (a), SSP2-4.5 (b), SSP5-8.5 (c) scenarios for Central China, for the years 2021-2100, the near-term period of 2021-2040 (near period), the mid-term period of 2041-2060 (mid period), and the long-term period of 2081-2100 (end period)"
Table 4
Statistical comparisons of temperature and precipitation simulations between CMIP5 and CMIP6 models for different future periods in Central China"
统计量 | 情景 | 未来 | 近期 | 中期 | 远期 |
气温变幅/℃ | SSP2-4.5 | 1.29 | 0.34 | 1.01 | 2.14 |
RCP4.5 | 2.08 | 1.13 | 2.07 | 2.88 | |
气温变化趋势/(℃/10 a) | SSP2-4.5 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.15 |
RCP4.5 | 0.30 | 0.27 | 0.46 | -0.11 | |
降水变率/(%) | SSP2-4.5 | 6.85 | 3.24 | 8.62 | 8.67 |
RCP4.5 | 2.79 | 2.73 | -1.86 | 7.58 | |
降水变化趋势/(mm/10 a) | SSP2-4.5 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 40.6 | -0.6 |
RCP4.5 | 7.71 | -21.13 | 18.19 | 35.00 |
1 | 秦大河. 气候变化科学与人类可持续发展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33 (7): 874- 883. |
2 | 姜大膀, 富元海. 2 ℃全球变暖背景下中国未来气候变化预估[J]. 大气科学, 2012, 36 (2): 234- 246. |
3 | 姜江, 姜大膀, 林一骅. RCP4.5情景下中国季风区及降水变化预估[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39 (5): 901- 910. |
4 | 阮甜, 查芊郁, 杨茹, 等. 全球升温1.5 ℃和2.0 ℃对长江寸滩站以上流域径流的影响[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2019, 28 (2): 407- 415. |
5 | 李东欢, 邹立维, 周天军. 全球1.5 ℃温升背景下中国极端事件变化的区域模式预估[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32 (4): 446- 457. |
6 | 翟盘茂, 周佰铨, 陈阳. 气候变化科学方面的几个最新认知[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17 (6): 629- 635. |
7 | 周天军, 陈梓明, 陈晓龙, 等. IPCC AR6报告解读: 未来的全球气候——基于情景的预估和近期信息[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17 (6): 652- 663. |
8 | 赵宗慈, 罗勇, 黄建斌. 从检验CMIP5气候模式看CMIP6地球系统模式的发展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14 (6): 643- 648. |
9 | 张丽霞, 陈晓龙, 辛晓歌. CMIP6情景模式比较计划(ScenarioMIP)概况与评述[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15 (5): 519- 525. |
10 | 姜彤, 吕嫣冉, 黄金龙. CMIP6模式新情景(SSP-RCP)概述及其在淮河流域的应用[J]. 气象科技进展, 2020, 10 (5): 102- 109. |
11 | 赵宗慈, 罗勇, 黄建斌. CMIP6的设计[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2016, 12 (3): 258- 260. |
12 | 周天军, 邹立维, 陈晓龙. 第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)评述[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15 (5): 445- 456. |
13 |
Fu Y H , Lin Z D , Guo D . Improvement of the simulation of the summer East Asian westerly jet from CMIP5 to CMIP6[J]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2020, 13 (6): 550- 558.
doi: 10.1080/16742834.2020.1746175 |
14 | 魏萌, 舒启, 宋振亚, 等. CMIP6气候模式对21世纪初全球增暖减缓现象模拟能力评估与归因分析[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2021, 51 (6): 947- 961. |
15 |
Zhu H H , Jiang Z H , Li J , et al. Does CMIP6 inspire more confidence in simulating climate extremes over China?[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2020, 37, 1119- 1132.
doi: 10.1007/s00376-020-9289-1 |
16 |
Chen H P , Sun J Q , Lin W Q , et al. Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 models in simulating climate extremes[J]. Science Bulletin, 2020, 65 (17): 1415- 1418.
doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2020.05.015 |
17 | 王予, 李惠心, 王会军, 等. CMIP6全球气候模式对中国极端降水模拟能力的评估及其与CMIP5的比较[J]. 气象学报, 2021, 79 (3): 369- 386. |
18 | 胡一阳, 徐影, 李金建, 等. CMIP6不同分辨率全球气候模式对中国降水模拟能力评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17 (6): 730- 743. |
19 |
Xin X G , Wu T W , Zhang J , et al. Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 simulations of precipitation in China and the East Asian summer monsoon[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2020, 40 (15): 6423- 6440.
doi: 10.1002/joc.6590 |
20 |
Lin W Q , Chen H P . Assessment of model performance of precipitation extremes over the mid-high latitude areas of Northern Hemisphere: from CMIP5 to CMIP6[J]. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2020, 13 (6): 598- 603.
doi: 10.1080/16742834.2020.1820303 |
21 | 赵梦霞, 苏布达, 姜彤, 等. CMIP6模式对黄河上游降水的模拟及预估[J]. 高原气象, 2021, 40 (3): 547- 558. |
22 | 李纯, 姜彤, 王艳君, 等. 基于CMIP6模式的黄河上游地区未来气温模拟预估[J]. 冰川冻土, 2022, 44 (1): 171- 178. |
23 | 姜彤, 吕嫣冉, 黄金龙, 等. CMIP6模式新情景(SSP-RCP)概述及其在淮河流域的应用[J]. 气象科技进展, 2020, 10 (5): 102- 109. |
24 | 李晓蕾, 王卫光, 张淑林. 基于CMIP6多模式的长江流域未来降水变化趋势分析[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2022, 3, 1-7, 12. |
25 | 王慧, 肖登攀, 赵彦茜, 等. 基于CMIP6气候模式的华北平原极端气温指数评估和预测[J]. 2021, 37(5): 86-94, 142. |
26 | 黄子立, 吴小飞, 毛江玉. CMIP6模式水平分辨率对模拟我国西南地区夏季极端降水的影响评估[J]. 高原气象, 2021, 40 (6): 1470- 1483. |
27 | 崔讲学. 华中区域气候变化评估报告: 2012[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2014. |
28 | 刘敏, 王凯, 万素琴, 等. 华中区域气候变化评估报告: 2020[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2021. |
29 | 任永建, 万素琴, 肖莺, 等. 华中区域气温变化的模拟评估及未来情景预估[J]. 气象学报, 2012, 70 (5): 1098- 1106. |
30 |
王苗, 刘敏, 任永建. 基于高分辨率模拟数据RCP4.5情景下的华中区域气候变化预估[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2021, 37 (3): 65- 72.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2021.03.009 |
31 |
Qin P C , Xu H M , Liu M , et al. Projected impacts of climate change on major dams in the Upper Yangtze River Basin[J]. Climate Change, 2022, 170, 8.
doi: 10.1007/s10584-021-03303-w |
32 | 刘绿柳, 魏麟骁, 徐影, 等. 气候变化对黄河流域生态径流影响预估[J]. 水科学进展, 2021, 32 (6): 824- 833. |
33 |
王涛, 王乙舒, 沈玉敏, 等. CMIP5模式对辽宁省气温模拟能力及未来2 ℃升温阈值出现时间评估[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2020, 36 (2): 49- 61.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2020.02.007 |
34 |
Torrence C , Compo G P . A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorogical Society, 1998, 79 (1): 61- 78.
doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0061:APGTWA>2.0.CO;2 |
35 | 周莉, 兰明才, 蔡荣辉, 等. 21世纪前期长江中下游流域极端降水预估及不确定性分析[J]. 气象学报, 2018, 76 (1): 47- 61. |
36 | 邓荔, 朱欢欢, 江志红. 不同情景达到碳中和下中国区域气候变化的预估[J]. 大气科学学报, 45 (3): 364- 375. |
37 | 石英, 高学杰, 吴佳, 等. 华北地区未来气候变化的高分辨率数值模拟[J]. 应用气象学报, 2010, 21 (5): 580- 589. |
38 |
王涛, 王乙舒, 崔妍, 等. 气候模式对东北三省降水模拟能力评估及预估[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2016, 32 (5): 52- 60.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.05.008 |
[1] | Mian LIANG,Liujie PAN,Bei JIA,Wenlian YAN,Tianshu WANG,Xingxing GAO,Peirong LI. Analysis of the characteristics and causes of explosive intensification of a persistent heavy fog event over Guanzhong Plain, Shaanxi in January 2019 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(6): 18-27. |
[2] | Yue WANG,Chenghan LIU,Yunxia DUAN,Hongyu SUN,Jinglin CUI,Yumeng SU,Peiyu CHEN,Weilong BAN. Verification technology of multi-model precipitation forecast in Liaoning province in summer 2020 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(6): 37-43. |
[3] | AO Xue, ZHAI Qingfei, ZHAO Chunyu, CUI Yan, GENG Shujiang, YU Yiqiu, ZHOU Xiaoyu, LI Jingwei. Projected changes of extreme precipitation in Liaohe River Basin at global warming levels of 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(6): 69-79. |
[4] | ZHANG Guohong, WANG Xiaoqiong, ZHANG Yalin. Study on the relationship between the number of strong cold air days and the interannual variation of sea surface temperature anomalies from 1961 to 2019 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(6): 80-86. |
[5] | JIA Xiaohong, LI Qi. Applicability of CLDAS air temperature during road icing period on Hoji section of Beijing-Tibet expressway and its application in traffic risk early warning [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(6): 96-104. |
[6] | Xiuzhu SHA,Can SONG,Jianfang DING,Ronghao CHU,Shanhai WANG. Cloud physical response of aircraft precipitation enhancement based on FY geostationary satellite [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(5): 82-90. |
[7] | Jinlan GAO,Huayang WEN,Xiaoyi ZHENG,Ya'nan CAO,Yun WANG. Applicability evaluation of three reanalysis precipitation datasets in Anhui province [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(4): 47-56. |
[8] | Zhenhua JIN,Bingui WU,Yunchen LIAO,Qiang LONG,Qingjun PU. Analysis of the causes of differences between sea and land distribution of fog on the west coast of the Bohai Sea from 2015 to 2020 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(4): 84-94. |
[9] | Xin MENG,Yu ZHANG,Tingting ZHAO,Di WANG,Yunlong MA,Xu ZHANG. Characteristics of summer precipitation and its relationship with previous ENSO in Northeast China from 1961 to 2019 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(4): 103-113. |
[10] | Shan JIANG, Shujie ZHANG, Jing ZHANG, Qiuting DONG, Xiaowei SONG, Xuan ZHAO, Lu YU, Lili YANG. Temporal and spatial characteristics of drought during soybean growing season in Liaoning province based on SPI and SPEI [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(4): 130-137. |
[11] | Bing DU,Wei WU,Xiaolong HUANG,Yuhe JIANG,Shiying LI. Improvement of merged precipitation products in Sichuan province based on precipitation merging experiment [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(4): 155-161. |
[12] | Jun TONG,Xuqin MENG,Liang ZHAO,Xiaohui ZHANG,Jiuhui PENG,Ting LI. Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of late spring coldness and its meteorological indexes in Hebei province during 1991-2020 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(4): 162-168. |
[13] | Xiao-tong ZHU,Kai YAO,Shang-feng LI,Mei-hui QU. Application of the SAL method to test the precipitation forecast of typhoons in Northeast China [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(3): 31-39. |
[14] | Li-yuan REN,Ming-ming XIONG,Mei-ling SUN,Xue-jiao WANG. Spatial-temporal characteristics of low visibility in Tianjin and its application in expressway meteorological service [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(3): 72-78. |
[15] | Heng-yuan KANG,Yu-lian LIU,Fang YUAN,He-ling ZHOU. Analysis of city effect of precipitation in Harbin based on the backbone station network [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(3): 79-86. |
Viewed | ||||||
Full text |
|
|||||
Abstract |
|
|||||
|