2016—2021年乌海市气象条件变化对呼吸系统疾病的影响研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2025.02.006

Abstract

Abstract: Daily respiratory disease consultation records and meteorological data from Wuhai City from 2016 to 2021 were analyzed to assess the influence of meteorological conditions on respiratory health.Spearman correlation analysis was used to identify temperature as a high-impact meteorological factor of respiratory diseases in the region.Generalized additive models (GAMs) and distributional lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) were employed to estimate the attributable fractions (AFs) of temperature to the number of consultation scores (AFs) and to identify vulnerable population groups.The results showed that both low and high temperatures had an immediate effect on respiratory disease visits,with low temperatures having a more dominant and prolonged impact.The peak AF range for the total population was -10 ~ 7 ℃,accounting for 50.2% of total AFs.Sudden temperature changes during seasonal transitions were significantly associated with increased respiratory disease visits,and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) of 8~16 ℃ had a significant immediate effect.Females were found to be more sensitive to temperature fluctuations.

Key words: Air temperature, Generalized additive model, Distributional lag nonlinear model, Attributable fraction

CLC Number:

YIN Ninglu, LI Junlin, WANG Shigong. Study on the impact of changes in meteorological conditions on respiratory diseases in Wuhai city,2016-2021[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2025, 41(2): 47-55.

References

[1] 周启星. 气候变化对环境与健康影响研究进展[J]. 气象与环境学报,2006,22(1):38-44.
[2] Romanello M,McGushin A,Di Napoli C,et al. The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change:code red for a healthy future[J]. The Lancet,2021,398(10311):1619-1662.
[3] 卢一,杨达性,齐栩. 我国呼吸系统疾病负担状况分析[J]. 中国卫生产业,2019,16(20):3-7.
[4] 刘华悦,付桂琴,王洁. 石家庄市气象要素对成人哮喘住院人数的影响[J].气象与环境学报,2019,35(5):137-143.
[5] 付桂琴,刘华悦,贾俊妹. 石家庄地区气温对慢性阻塞性肺病住院人数的影响[J].气象与环境学报,2017,33(2):101-106.
[6] 李雪源,景元书,吴凡,等.南京市呼吸系统疾病死亡率与气象要素的关系及预测[J].气象与环境学报,2012,28(5):46-48.
[7] 殷宁潞,李俊林,洪也,等.辽宁省两县域城市气温对呼吸系统疾病住院人数的影响[J].干旱气象,2023,41(1):132-142.
[8] 李俊林,徐静,尹立,等.秦皇岛市气温及其变化对居民死亡风险的影响研究[J].气象学报,2022,80(3):433-448.
[9] Tang M N,He Y,Zhang X C,et al. The acute effects of temperature variability on heart rate variability:A repeated-measure study[J].Environmental Research,2021,194:110655.
[10] Guo Y M,Gasparrini A,Armstrong B,et al.Global variation in the effects of ambient temperature on mortality:a systematic evaluation[J].Epidemiology,2014,25(6):781-9.
[11] 张慧玲.宁夏部分农村地区气温变化与呼吸及循环系统疾病门诊就诊人次的时间序列研究[D].银川:宁夏医科大学,2018.
[12] Ma Y X,Wang H,Cheng B W,et al.Health risk of extreme low temperature on respiratory diseases in western China[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2022,29:35760-35767.
[13] Zhao Q,Zhang Y M,Zhang W Y,et al.Ambient temperature and emergency department visits:Time-series analysis in 12 Chinese cities[J].Environmental Pollution,2017,224:310-316.
[14] Ma W J,Chen R J,Kan H D.Temperature-related mortality in 17 large Chinese cities:How heat and cold affect mortality in China[J].Environmental Research,2014,134:127-133.
[15] Feng F L,Ma Y X,Zhang Y F,et al.Effects of extreme temperature on respiratory diseases in Lanzhou,a temperate climate city of China[J].Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2021,28:49278-49288.
[16] 乐满,王式功,谢佳君,等.环境条件对遵义市呼吸系统疾病的影响及预测研究[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(11):4334-4347.
[17] 马盼,王馨梓,张莉,等.深圳流感发病的气象诱因及预测建模研究[J].气象学报,2022,80(3):421-432.
[18] 杨军.气温变化对我国15城市人群心血管疾病死亡影响的研究[D].北京:中国疾病预防控制中心,2017.
[19] Zhao Q,Zhang Y M,Zhang W Y,et al.Ambient temperature and emergency department visits:Time-series analysis in 12 Chinese cities[J].Environmental Pollution,2017,224:310-316.
[20] 张洪杰.乌海市四季气候季节划分及特征分析[J].内蒙古科技与经济,2020(24):82-84,86.
[21] 郝天依,韩素芹,姚青,等.天津市脑卒中高住院风险的气象原因探析[J].气象学报,2022,80(3):392-402.
[22] Gasparrini A,Armstrong B.Time series analysis on the health effects of temperature:Advancements and limitations[J].Environmental Research,2010,110(6):633-638.
[23] Gasparrini A,Leone M.Attributable risk from distributed lag models[J].BioMed Central Medical Research Methodology,2014,14:55.
[24] Chen R J,Yin P,Wang L J,et al.Association between ambient temperature and mortality risk and burden:time series study in 272 main Chinese cities[J].British Medical Journal,2018,363:k4306.
[25] Vicedo-Cabrera A M,Sera F,Guo Y,et al.A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate[J].Environment International,2018,111:239-246.
[26] Gasparrini A,Leone M.Attributable risk from distributed lag models[J].BioMed Central Medical Research Methodology,2014,14:55.
[27] 冯风流,张艺凡,焦浩然,等.最低气温对兰州市呼吸系统疾病就诊人次的影响研究[J].中国环境科学,2020,40(4):1782-1791.
[28] 徐梦颖,骆善彩,谢真珍,等.气象因素对淮安市呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的影响[J].江苏预防医学,2023,2:156-159.
[29] 张莹,王式功,张婕,等.成都市不同温度段对呼吸和心脑血管疾病死亡影响的归因风险评估[J].中国卫生统计,2019,36(6):818-823,828.

Study on the impact of changes in meteorological conditions on respiratory diseases in Wuhai city,2016-2021

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	Jingfu CAO,Yue ZHAO,Hui WANG,Wei WU,Mingcai LI. Changes in outdoor calculated meteorological parameters of air-conditioning in winter and effects on air-conditioning heat load and carbon emissions in Shanghai, 1961-2020 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2024, 40(6): 98-105.
[2]	Huosheng LIU,Jiahui ZAN,Yatian CHENG,Qianhui YU,Changguang WU. Analysis of spatiotemporal variations in air temperature among three types of spaces in Wuhan city during the summer of 2022 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2024, 40(2): 51-58.
[3]	Xiaohong JIA,Qi LI. Applicability of CLDAS air temperature during road icing period on Hoji section of Beijing-Tibet expressway and its application in traffic risk early warning [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(6): 96-104.
[4]	Jun TONG,Xuqin MENG,Liang ZHAO,Xiaohui ZHANG,Jiuhui PENG,Ting LI. Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of late spring coldness and its meteorological indexes in Hebei province during 1991-2020 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(4): 162-168.
[5]	Rui-yang HUA,Wei LI,Cheng-zhi YE,Chang-jian NI. Variations of ozone concentration and its influence factors in Changsha from 2016 to 2019 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2023, 39(2): 44-52.
[6]	Yuan-jun XIAO,Bao-shan LI,Wen-dan SONG,Yong-xiang CHENG,Jing-feng HUANG. The impact of concentration change of PM_2.5 on air temperature in China during 1998-2016 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2022, 38(3): 85-92.
[7]	Ying-ying MENG, Shu-ling LI, Ling ZHAO, Xue-mei BAI, Min-hui YAN. Validation of three forecast products of air temperature in Heilongjiang province [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2022, 38(2): 21-30.
[8]	Wei JIN,Wei-hua LIU,Jing LI,Xiao-yu KANG. Change characteristics of air temperature and urban heat island in Anshan from 1951 to 2017 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2021, 37(4): 78-85.
[9]	Xing ZHI,Jian-guo TAN,Lan-dong SUN. Characteristics of upper-level air temperature over East China from 1961 to 2017 [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2021, 37(2): 48-55.
[10]	Jing XU. Relationship between near-surface ozone concentration and temperature in Qinhuangdao [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2020, 36(4): 83-88.
[11]	LIU Hua-yue, FU Gui-qin, WANG Jie. The effect of meteorological elements on adult asthma hospitalization in Shijiazhuang [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(5): 137-143.
[12]	LI Lin, SUN He-min, QIAO Xiao-yan, FAN Xue-bo, SUN Xue-qi, DU Chuan-yao, YU Li-ping. Influence of environmental conditions on temperature observation from the weather station in Beijing [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(4): 120-126.
[13]	TAN Yu-long, YIN Ling, WANG Shi-gong, CHEN Lei, TAN Yuan-wen, KANG Yan-zhen. Comparative research of the effects of temperature change on ischemic cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in different regions [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(3): 94-99.
[14]	WANG Xin-wei, ZHANG Yu-xing, WEI Fang-fang. Research on forecast method of maximum and minimum air temperature in mountainous scenic spot [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2019, 35(2): 92-96.
[15]	LIU Bo; DANG Bing; ZHANG Nan;WANG Shi-gong; YIN Ling; ZHANG Xiao-yun; LI Tan-shi;LU Zhen-hua. Comparison of various meteorological statistical forecasting models-Taking causing- stroke weather forecasting as an example [J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(4): 126-133.