Abstract: Based on Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Report (METAR),meteorological station observation data,and numerical model products for 13 airports in Northeast China in 2021,this study analyzes and evaluates the performance of CMA-MESO temperature forecasts at airports prone to high-impact low temperature events,and examines the predictability of the high-impact low-temperature interval.The results indicate that the temperature forecasts for most airports are higher than the observations except for ZYDQ,the absolute error and root mean square error of airports in the northern,eastern,and high-altitude areas are significantly larger than those in plain areas; the temperature error,absolute error and root mean square error have obvious diurnal and seasonal variations with the largest forecast errors occurring at 06:00-07:00.When the forecasts of airport temperature are above 0 ℃,they are close to observations; when below 0 ℃,the forecasts are more clustered.After applying the cumulative probability density function correction method to the airport temperature forecast error for ZBES,ZYMH,and ZYLD airports,the hit rates for low temperature events increased by 56%,14%,and 9%,respectively.

Key words: CMA-MESO, Temperature forecast, Airport low temperature event, Correction