主办单位:中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所
国际刊号:ISSN 1673-503X
国内刊号:CN 21-1531/P

气象与环境学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (1): 43-52.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2021.01.006

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

河南省气温资料均一化前后气温变化趋势对比分析

姬兴杰1(),丁亚磊2,李凤秀1,左璇1   

  1. 1. 河南省气候中心, 河南 郑州 450003
    2. 郑州大学生态与环境学院, 河南 郑州 450001
  • 收稿日期:2019-10-09 出版日期:2021-02-28 发布日期:2021-01-21
  • 作者简介:姬兴杰, 男, 1982年生, 正研级高级工程师, 主要从事气候变化及其影响研究, E-mail: jixingjie2004@aliyun.com
  • 基金资助:
    河南省气象局“气候与气候变化创新团队”;中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201934);中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室应用技术研究基金项目(KZ202005)

Comparative analysis of the mean temperature trend before and after homogenization of the mean temperature data in He'nan province

Xing-jie JI1(),Ya-lei DING2,Feng-xiu LI1,Xuan ZUO1   

  1. 1. He'nan Provincial Climate Center, Zhengzhou 450003, China
    2. School of Ecology and Environment, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
  • Received:2019-10-09 Online:2021-02-28 Published:2021-01-21

摘要:

基于河南省111个气象站1961—2017年均一化前后逐日平均气温数据,采用统计分析方法,分析均一化前后河南省年、四季和月的平均气温变化规律及其空间分布,以期明确非自然因素对河南省平均气温变化趋势的影响。结果表明:1961—2017年,均一化前后河南省年平均气温均呈显著上升,均一化后增温速率为0.21℃/10 a,较均一化前偏大0.02;季节之间,均一化前后均以冬季增温速率最大,均一化前后分别为0.36℃/10 a和0.38℃/10 a;月份之间,均一化前后均以2月增温速率最大,分别为0.49℃/10 a和0.51℃/10 a。从各站看,全省有41.4%的站点平均气温变化未受到非自然因素的影响,其余58.6%的站点受非自然因素影响较大;对于年平均气温,均一化后有96.4%站点气温显著上升,均一化前为90.1%,增加了6.3%,58.6%的站点中有43.3%的站点气候倾向率被低估、15.3%被高估;对于季节平均气温,均一化后冬春两季均有99.1%的站点平均气温显著上升,均一化前分别为98.2%和92.8%;对于月平均气温,均一化前,12个月中月平均气温增温显著的站点超过50%的月份有2月、3月、4月、10月和12月,均一化后,又增加了个1月;非自然因素对平均气温数据的影响导致了对全省气温变暖速率的低估。

关键词: 均一化, 平均气温变化, 评估

Abstract:

Based on the data of daily mean temperature before and after homogenization from 111 meteorological stations during 1961-2017 in He'nan province, the statistical analysis method was used to analyze the changes of annual, seasonal and monthly mean temperature and their spatial distribution before and after homogenization in order to clarify the effects of unnatural factors on the trend change of mean temperature in He'nan province.The results show that from 1961 to 2017, the annual mean temperature in He'nan province increases significantly before and after homogenization.The increasing rate after homogenization is 0.21 ℃ per decade which is 0.02 ℃ higher than that before homogenization.Among the four seasons, the increasing rate of seasonal mean temperature in winter before and after homogenization both are the highest, which are 0.36 ℃ per decade and 0.38 ℃ per decade, respectively.Among the twelve months, the increasing rates of monthly mean temperature in February before and after homogenization both are the highest, the values are 0.49 ℃ per decade and 0.51 ℃ per decade, respectively.Among 111 meteorological stations, 41.4% of the total sites are not affected by non-natural factors, while the rest 58.6% are greatly affected by non-natural factors.For the annual mean temperature, after homogenization, 96.4% of the total stations increase significantly which are averagely 6.3% bigger than that i.e.90.1% before homogenization.Among the rest 58.6% of the total stations, the climatic tendencies of 43.3% and 15.3%are averagely underestimated and overestimated, respectively.For the seasonal mean temperature, 99.1% of the total stations significantly increase in both winter and spring after homogenization, while the percentages are 98.2% and 92.8% before homogenization, respectively.Among the twelve months, the months whose mean temperatures increase significantly in more than 50% of the 111 stations are February, March, April, October and December before homogenization, and January is added after homogenization.The effects of non-natural factors on the mean temperature result in the underestimation of the warming rate in He'nan province.

Key words: Homogenization, Mean temperature change, Assessment

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