天津地区雷电流幅值及累积概率分布特征

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2022.03.016

气象与环境学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (3): 137-143.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2022.03.016

天津地区雷电流幅值及累积概率分布特征

宋喃喃¹(),刘邕^1,*(),李霞^2,³,李华凝¹,李猛⁴,银峰¹

1. 天津市气象灾害防御技术中心, 天津 300074
2. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/中国气象局气溶胶与云降水重点开放实验室, 南京 210044
3. 中国气象科学院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京 100081
4. 天津市防雷技术中心有限责任公司, 天津 300074

收稿日期:2021-12-14 出版日期:2022-06-28 发布日期:2022-07-23
通讯作者: 刘邕 E-mail:songnannan1216@126.com;Subutai@yeah.net
作者简介:宋喃喃, 女, 1987年生, 工程师, 主要从事雷电灾害防御技术研究, E-mail: songnannan1216@126.com
基金资助:
天津市气象局科研项目(202004ybxm02)

Distributions of lightning current amplitude and cumulative probability in the Tianjin area

Nan-nan SONG¹(),Yong LIU^1,*(),Xia LI^2,³,Hua-ning LI¹,Meng LI⁴,Feng YIN¹

1. Tianjin Meteorological Disaster Defense Technology Centre, Tianjin 300074, China
2. Key Laboratory for Aerosol Coud Preipitation of China Meteorological Administration, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forcast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CICFEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
3. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Bejing 100081, China
4. Tianjin Lightning Protection Technology Center Co., Ltd.Tianjin 300074, China

Received:2021-12-14 Online:2022-06-28 Published:2022-07-23
Contact: Yong LIU E-mail:songnannan1216@126.com;Subutai@yeah.net

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为研究天津地区雷电流幅值特征, 选取2008—2018年ADTD闪电定位数据, 研究分析了雷电流幅值时间分布特征和累积概率分布特征。结果表明: 天津地区11 a间共计发生闪电106474次, 负闪占比89.26%, 远高于正闪; 雷电流幅值主要集中在2—100 kA, 占闪电总数的97.76%, 160—200 kA范围内的闪电次数较少, 平均正闪电流强度明显大于负闪电流强度; 雷电流强度季节特征较为显著, 正闪雷电流强度呈双峰分布, 负闪雷电流强度分布较为平均, 春季正闪活动频繁, 秋季次之, 夏季负闪频发, 冬季雷电活动发生较少, 以正闪居多; 雷电流高于25 kA时, 正闪电流幅值累积概率显著高于负闪, 低于25 kA时, 负闪电流幅值累积概率高于正闪。负闪电流幅值的累积概率分布与总闪更为接近, 与正闪分布差异显著, 闪电总数电流累计概率分布主要受负闪影响。通过对比分析发现IEEE工作组(电气与电子工程师协会)推荐的累积概率分布函数更适合于天津地区, 特别是雷电流幅值在25—55 kA范围内时, 累积概率与推荐公式基本相同。将天津地区雷电流幅值累积概率公式尝试应用于雷电灾害风险评估中, 可为精准确定雷电灾害风险评估参数P_B取值, 精确计算雷击建筑物损失风险提供参考。

关键词: 雷电流幅值, 累积概率, 中值电流

Abstract:

To reveal the characteristics of lightning current amplitude in Tianjin, ADTD lightning location data from 2008 to 2018 were used to study the characteristics of temporal variations and cumulative probabilities of lightning current amplitudes.The results show that the lightning flashes add up to 106 474 over Tianjin during the 11 years, with the ratio of negative flashes of 89.26%, much higher than that of positive flashes.The amplitudes of lightning current are mainly concentrated in 2-100 kA, accounting for 97.76% of the total number of lightning.There are fewer lightning times in the range of 160-200 kA, and the average positive flash current intensity is significantly greater than the negative flash current intensity.Lightning current intensity appears significant seasonal characteristics.The positive lightning current intensity has a bimodal distribution, whereas the negative lightning current intensity is relatively uniform.The positive lightning current appears more frequently in spring, followed by fall.The negative flashing appears frequently in summer whereas flashing is less active in winter which most appears as positive flashing.When the lightning current is higher than 25 kA, the cumulative probability of positive flash current amplitude is significantly higher than that of a negative one, and when the lightning current is lower than 25 kA, the cumulative probability of negative flash current amplitude is higher than that of a positive one.The cumulative probability distribution of the negative flash current amplitude is closer to the total, with significant differences from the cumulative probability distribution of the positive flash current amplitude.The cumulative probability distribution of the total lightning current is mainly affected by the negative flash.Through comparison, it is found that the cumulative probability distribution function recommended by the IEEE working group (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) can objectively reflect the probability distribution characteristics of lightning current amplitude in Tianjin, especially when the lightning current amplitude is in the range of 25-55 kA, and the cumulative probability is the same as the recommended formula.The cumulative probability formula of lightning current amplitude in the Tianjin area is tried to be used in the lightning disaster risk assessment, which can provide an effective reference for accurately determining the value of the lightning disaster risk assessment parameter (P_B) and accurately calculating the loss risk of lightning strikes.

Key words: Lightning current amplitude, Cumulative probability, Median current

中图分类号:

P427.32⁺1

宋喃喃,刘邕,李霞,李华凝,李猛,银峰. 天津地区雷电流幅值及累积概率分布特征[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2022, 38(3): 137-143.

Nan-nan SONG,Yong LIU,Xia LI,Hua-ning LI,Meng LI,Feng YIN. Distributions of lightning current amplitude and cumulative probability in the Tianjin area[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2022, 38(3): 137-143.

图/表 12

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年份	极性	强度/kA
年份	极性	(2-20]	(20-40]	(40-60]	(60-80]	(80-100]	(100-120]	(120-140]	(140-160]	(160-180]	(180-200]	合计
2008	正	12	83	65	51	26	20	14	3	10	3	287
2008	负	399	7532	2825	631	195	78	43	20	15	6	11744
2009	正	12	239	288	147	81	54	37	17	10	4	889
2009	负	921	11574	2706	560	143	54	27	17	14	16	16032
2010	正	0	103	105	54	38	18	5	8	3	3	337
2010	负	434	5495	1358	333	82	40	25	15	7	4	7793
2011	正	17	394	388	221	116	64	33	24	23	13	1293
2011	负	973	10351	2545	438	139	70	58	34	24	20	14652
2012	正	6	348	341	173	91	45	29	38	12	10	1093
2012	负	611	8835	2341	459	143	61	29	19	5	2	12505
2013	正	3	259	277	202	104	48	30	10	6	3	942
2013	负	298	5746	1437	283	53	35	24	10	5	1	7892
2014	正	7	261	343	190	109	82	47	17	19	7	1082
2014	负	233	4205	863	180	28	17	5	2	1	0	5534
2015	正	1	300	430	307	198	118	72	42	22	8	1498
2015	负	125	2747	640	141	44	20	9	2	4	0	3732
2016	正	3	217	218	174	91	66	41	30	12	8	860
2016	负	224	3828	935	186	38	9	3	1	0	0	5224
2017	正	157	357	406	258	184	102	47	36	11	8	1566
2017	负	932	1005	141	39	19	4	4	0	0	0	2144
2018	正	715	338	226	135	79	37	23	20	11	4	1588
2018	负	2556	3949	941	237	60	27	10	4	2	1	7787
合计	正	933	2899	3087	1912	1117	654	378	245	139	71	11435
合计	负	7706	65267	16732	3487	944	415	237	124	77	50	95039

电流极性	P_IEEE	P_《规范》
正闪	0.9995	0.9638
负闪	0.9997	0.9893
总闪	0.9993	0.9696

极性	Levenberg-Marquardt法			“中值电流”法
极性	a	b	R²	a	b	R²
正闪	51.19	2.28	0.9995	51.30	3.11	0.9989
负闪	31.08	4.68	0.9997	30.54	4.28	0.9995
总闪	32.30	4.04	0.9993	31.57	3.78	0.9992

雷电防护系统(LPS)类型	P_B
无保护	1
Ⅳ	0.2
Ⅲ	0.1
Ⅱ	0.05
Ⅰ	0.02

累积概率/(%)	5	10	20	50	80
电流值/kA	67.05	55.56	45.54	32.30	22.90

天津地区雷电流幅值及累积概率分布特征

Distributions of lightning current amplitude and cumulative probability in the Tianjin area

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